Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[Ozonelayer]

Seeing first little bubbles of convection south of Springfield, Missouri.

Yep. I will say, they are looking quite like baby supercells, which is concerning considering the fact that it was either that or the linear solution.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

mdt is maintained

 

[zath]

View attachment 41776
Normally the 15z HRRR downtrends at least a little bit but I don't think that's the case this time. Goodness gracious

It looks impressive on simulated reflectivity, but if you look at the winds/hodographs ahead of the storms it is very linear. Low level shear is still pretty meh. Those UH tracks are likely just indicating some decent updrafts and thus hail. I'm not sold on those being proxies for tornadoes. Could be wrong though, time will tell I guess

 

[Kds86z]

Caught my eye. Watch Ky. Trey I think showed this also.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

long-tracked tors mentioned as well

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 41778
long-tracked tors mentioned as well

Where is this from? Isn’t on new day 1

 

[Ozonelayer]

View attachment 41778
long-tracked tors mentioned as well

They also mentioned considering a high risk aswell...

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Where is this from? Isn’t on new day 1

its new d1, prob hasn't updated yet

 

[Kds86z]

New day 1..

 

[slenker]

They also mentioned considering a high risk aswell...

I haven’t read the discussion yet, but I’m guessing the only thing holding them back is probably the orientation of surface wind vectors. Outside of that, which admittedly probably does play a large role in the verification of what will happen, today looks like a high end setup.

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

Not seeing any reference to high risk in the new update…

 

[OH-IOan]

Yea, me neither. The "this will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail" part is there, though.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

So if we see a decrease in uncertainty later as storms actually fire, they may Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency out the pink sharpie in a later update.

Course, outlooks are kinda less important now compared to obs, especially now that cells are beginning to form.

 

[Kds86z]

Yall confusing me…. Idk what outlook you’re reading smh lol.

 

[slenker]

So if we see a decrease in uncertainty later as storms actually fire, they may Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency out the pink sharpie in a later update.

Course, outlooks are kinda less important now compared to obs, especially now that cells are beginning to form.

I think if they were going to do it, they would have issued it just now. The event is already starting to get going as these cells in the mid south begin to get their acts together.

 

[OH-IOan]

Yall confusing me…. Idk what outlook you’re reading smh lol.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Ozonelayer]

Yall confusing me…. Idk what outlook you’re reading smh lol.

I saw this, thats why I thought they were considering a high risk.

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 41781

I saw this, thats why I thought they were considering a high risk.

I don’t see that on day 1..

 

[Kds86z]

This was for previous outlook and isn’t even the mdt risk area. @Ozonelayer @Cyclonic Paracosm