Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[OH-IOan]

Has eastern Kentucky ever had a higher end tornado outbreak? Maybe the Wheelersburg event?

(From Tornado Archive, so take with a grain of salt)

This is every (E)F3, 4 or 5 tornado in KY. Eastern KY seems to be part of that Appalachia area (mainly West Virginia) that avoids high-end tornadoes for the most part. They have had a few long-trackers, like that 2012 EF3 that tracked 85 miles through West Liberty.

 

[Jbop]

Hey guys, I haven't checked the weather in a while. I wonder what the next week looks like, maybe it's interesti-

Severe Weather Threat May 17-21, 2025

Monday and specifically Tuesday is looking like one of “those” days in the plains. Classic plains setup, exponential due points in the 70s. A bowling ball of a low. A very defined dry line. And huge cape. Seems like a thread is necessary because this is looking nasty. Edit: Gonna also add...

talkweather.com

 

[Clancy]

While the main event looks to be in the Ohio and TN Valleys, northern portions of MS/AL/GA shouldn't sleep on the possibility of a MCS/QLCS in the late overnight hours into morning on Saturday. With hefty instability values in place well into the night, any clusters that become well-established in the warm sector could maintain themselves through morning. I also think it's plausible that the main focus of severe convection today will be QLCS supercell clusters in the AR/MO/IL/KY/TN five-point intersection. Strong instability and helicity are already building back in that direction.

 

[Maxis_s]

View attachment 41767
I've rarely seen this model go up to 60%... why is it at 93% for today?

Technically posted this in the wrong thread so I'll just repost it here

 

[Ozonelayer]

I don't know how to post it here, but Trey released a forecast discussion on today.

 

[Clancy]

I don't know how to post it here, but Trey released a forecast discussion on today.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Thank you!

 

[ColdFront]

Has eastern Kentucky ever had a higher end tornado outbreak? Maybe the Wheelersburg event?

3/2/2012 definitely was higher end for that region.

You never see discrete, plains type supercells over this way like you did that day. Which looking at the kinematics from that day (SRH was nearing 1000 in the region) it’s not surprising two supercells were able to drop long track tornados in a very mountainous region.

 

[lake.effect]

I think the DFW area needs to be under an ENH risk for tornadoes today.

 

[Jbop]

I think the DFW area needs to be under an ENH risk for tornadoes today.

FWD had no mention of Tornadoes for DFW today. Has something changed? I also don't see any discussion in the local forums regarding a tornado threat for DFW today


(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A weak front will continue to move across the area today. Depending
on the timing/speed of this front, a few thunderstorms may
develop/affect SE parts of the fa later this afternoon/early
evening. Some models have the storms developing and remaining just
south of the area but if storms do occur in the fa the instability
and shear will make severe storms possible with large hail and
damaging winds the primary concerns.

Despite the front, temperatures are expected to be above average
with highs ranging from the mid 80s (N OK) to low 90s (along Red
River). Lows tonight (Fri night) are forecast to be similar to this
morning with temperatures ranging from the low 50s to mid 60s.

 

[Maxis_s]

Normally the 15z HRRR downtrends at least a little bit but I don't think that's the case this time. Goodness gracious

 

[Mavsfan10]

 

[Ozonelayer]

View attachment 41776
Normally the 15z HRRR downtrends at least a little bit but I don't think that's the case this time. Goodness gracious

Considering the environment at play and current observations showing low level winds from the south throughout IL and west KY, that would be a horrible outcome.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

View attachment 41776
Normally the 15z HRRR downtrends at least a little bit but I don't think that's the case this time. Goodness gracious

Past that screengrab the rest of the evolution is pretty incredible as well.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

View attachment 41776
Normally the 15z HRRR downtrends at least a little bit but I don't think that's the case this time. Goodness gracious

That line in that parameter space has some very high ceiling outcomes, yowza

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 41777

Off of listen!

 

[OH-IOan]

View attachment 41776
Normally the 15z HRRR downtrends at least a little bit but I don't think that's the case this time. Goodness gracious

As James Spann would say, "are you kiddin' me!?" Not good at all.

 

[FLPanhandle91]

Initial discretes/semi-discretes early in the period pose the biggest SigTor threat in MY opinion. Emebedded EF2+ later in the evening certainly a possibility as well. If I was chasing, I'd set up somewhere near Paducah and play the Ohio River crossing game until I found a cell I liked.

River-valley-channeled flow could induce locally enhanced low-level shear and be the catalyst needed to back some of the surface winds everyone seems to be latching onto.

 

[slenker]

Seeing first little bubbles of convection south of Springfield, Missouri.

 

[Aaron Rider]

(From Tornado Archive, so take with a grain of salt)
View attachment 41768
This is every (E)F3, 4 or 5 tornado in KY. Eastern KY seems to be part of that Appalachia area (mainly West Virginia) that avoids high-end tornadoes for the most part. They have had a few long-trackers, like that 2012 EF3 that tracked 85 miles through West Liberty.

Not to distract too much from the thread, but I'd REALLY like to see analysis of the 1944 Appalachian outbreak (some VERY high end storms) and the 6/2/1998 outbreak that produced an F4 way up in the high country of Frostburg, Maryland.