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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

MD 788 graphic

Yay for me. Another round chance for severe thunderstorms! I have had at least 4 thunderstorm days this month, and 3 of them as severe days.
 
Southern Missouri STP minus 700 mb temps is now at a positive 4.2, so I don't think we can rule out tornadoes in this general area tonight.

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that beefy cell in Illinois is in a positive 2.6 environment.

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Chicago area is -1 to -2 and Wisconsin is a max of -2 to -3. Just posting to see how things pan out and if this method actually works.
 
MD 788 graphic

Yay for me. Another round chance for severe thunderstorms! I have had at least 4 thunderstorm days this month, and 3 of them as severe days.
@Brice W You seeing this? We are nearly bulls-eyed on this mesoscale discussion.
 
37k ft echo tops on a pair of updrafts developing ~50 miles SW of Madison, WI. If they can sustain themselves, this could be the start of the main round of storms.

Was just about to say that. Those two are pretty discrete so it'll be interesting to see what becomes of them.

Got my eye on them...
 
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