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Severe Weather 2025

Kds86z said:
It’s May 10 lol
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What is the latest we have made it into May without a F2 or above tornado? Would be a good question for @JPWX

We have some possible events on the horizon next week so this statement may change, but this year has really just reminded me of 2023 so far. Big time outbreaks in March and mid April, but a quieter back half of the season
 
ColdFront said:
What is the latest we have made it into May without a F2 or above tornado? Would be a good question for @JPWX

We have some possible events on the horizon next week so this statement may change, but this year has really just reminded me of 2023 so far. Big time outbreaks in March and mid April, but a quieter back half of the season
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Yeah, just because we had a several big days doesn’t mean it’s gonna be active through June.
 
ColdFront said:
What is the latest we have made it into May without a F2 or above tornado? Would be a good question for @JPWX

We have some possible events on the horizon next week so this statement may change, but this year has really just reminded me of 2023 so far. Big time outbreaks in March and mid April, but a quieter back half of the season
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Why! Why would you say that?! D:

Famous last words lol.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Why! Why would you say that?! D:

Famous last words lol.
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Haha. Barring a major outbreak over the next couple of weeks, I think we may end spring season at about average in terms of tornados. it’s just objectively been a quiet mid April to May. Which has been a little surprising considering the MJO signature was supposed to cycle back around but that seemed to not come to fruition in late April.

Last year was the exact opposite. We had multiple bu$ts and quiet periods up until 4/26 and it was just plains insanity the entire month of May.

If you’re an avid chaser, you have to be disappointed with the way the season has went so far.
 
ColdFront said:
Haha. Barring a major outbreak over the next couple of weeks, I think we may end spring season at about average in terms of tornados. it’s just objectively been a quiet mid April to May. Which has been a little surprising considering the MJO signature was supposed to cycle back around but that seemed to not come to fruition in late April.

Last year was the exact opposite. We had multiple bu$ts and quiet periods up until 4/26 and it was just plains insanity the entire month of May.

If you’re an avid chaser, you have to be disappointed with the way the season has went so far.
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Last year was fun! Slight risk or enhanced every day lol.
 
ColdFront said:
What is the latest we have made it into May without a F2 or above tornado? Would be a good question for @JPWX

We have some possible events on the horizon next week so this statement may change, but this year has really just reminded me of 2023 so far. Big time outbreaks in March and mid April, but a quieter back half of the season
Click to expand...
Since 1950, the latest May start dates for an F2 or above tornado are:

2013: May 16
2011 - yes, 2011!: May 22

Good old 2011 doing 2011 things. Dumping 2 (really 4 - + Chickasha and Goldsby) EF5 tornadoes in May after the slowest start ever really recorded.

There were a few other years where it took a week or two for there to be one, or one around the 10th-12th. But it's VERY rare for there to not be one by the middle of May.

Quietest May was probably back in 1994, by the way (only 8, mostly in Texas, but one rando up in Quebec north of the St. Lawrence)

I enjoyed doing this research. I found out that there was an F2 tornado in Lancaster County, PA that started as a waterspout over the Susquehanna on May 6, 1991!
 
North MS: The latest May tornado (F1 rated) was on May 30th, 2004.

Latest F2 May tornado: May 31st, 1893.
Latest F3 May tornado: May 26th, 1924.
Most recent May EF3 tornadoes: May 8th, 2008 and May 2nd, 2010.
Most recent May EF1 tornadoes: May 2nd, 2021.
Most recent May EF1 tornado in Monroe County, MS: May 25th, 2015.
 
Aaron Rider said:
Since 1950, the latest May start dates for an F2 or above tornado are:

2013: May 16
2011 - yes, 2011!: May 22

Good old 2011 doing 2011 things. Dumping 2 (really 4 - + Chickasha and Goldsby) EF5 tornadoes in May after the slowest start ever really recorded.
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Appreciate the research on this man. That’s fascinating to me. One thing Reed, memes aside, stated in his 2025 prediction video was he thought the plains season would have a 2 week active period. So similar to those two years, we could have a quiet front half, but extremely active late May.
 
kcyalater said:
cell just east of selma AL has a nice couplet on it ijs
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Fairly strong. Maybe not BMX TOR strong, but definitely worth keeping an eye on if you're in the path. SVR-warned and moving NE at 20.
1746918336633.png
 
Aaron Rider said:
Since 1950, the latest May start dates for an F2 or above tornado are:

2013: May 16
2011 - yes, 2011!: May 22

Good old 2011 doing 2011 things. Dumping 2 (really 4 - + Chickasha and Goldsby) EF5 tornadoes in May after the slowest start ever really recorded.

There were a few other years where it took a week or two for there to be one, or one around the 10th-12th. But it's VERY rare for there to not be one by the middle of May.

Quietest May was probably back in 1994, by the way (only 8, mostly in Texas, but one rando up in Quebec north of the St. Lawrence)

I enjoyed doing this research. I found out that there was an F2 tornado in Lancaster County, PA that started as a waterspout over the Susquehanna on May 6, 1991!
Click to expand...

Thank you for taking the time! Fascinating results. Especially about 2011. That's nuts. Was the atmosphere extra "charged up" as a result of the non activity, or was it more of a weird coincidence?
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Thank you for taking the time! Fascinating results. Especially about 2011. That's nuts. Was the atmosphere extra "charged up" as a result of the non activity, or was it more of a weird coincidence?
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Just coincidence. Non-activity doesn’t charge up the atmosphere per se. What Non-activity can do is lead to more quality moisture and higher dew points accumulating in the gulf, which can make it much easier for the systems that break the pattern to tap into. This is what happened with both Palm Sunday 1965 and the 1974 super outbreak. A high pressure system was situated over the southeast for a pretty long period of March which kept cold frontal intrusions from sweeping the gulf clean. So when the time came, the low level jets of those two systems easily had access to high quality moisture and could pull it north thus giving them even more instability to work with. If you remember the 3/14 event, a lot depended on that lead wave a few days before to prime the moisture and not scour the gulf for the 3/14 system. With 1974 and 1965, there wasn’t really a need for a primer wave because moisture was allowed to build off the gulf all of March.

However, that’s really only a March/April thing. This deep into spring moisture access usually isn’t a failing factor in events.
 
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