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  • Current Tropical Systems
    Erin

Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

This may be controversial, but I believe this is the closest we will get to a Super Tuesday style outbreak under the current ratings regime (5 EF4s).

In my opinion this was also the outbreak of the decade so far. You had a full on supercell outbreak in Arkansas and Missouri on Friday with an attendant QLCS north of it. Then on Saturday, while storm mode was more messy, you still had multiple, training supercell families that tracked all through Mississippi and embedded circulations later in Alabama.

Just the wide geography impacted, along with the significant and cyclical supercell production of tornados, leads me to that opinion.

Edit: to add on to this, I absolutely believe we were 2 or 3 flies in the ointment away from discussing how Saturday was the most violent outbreak since 4/27.
 
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ColdFront said:
This may be controversial, but I believe this is the closest we will get to a Super Tuesday style outbreak under the current ratings regime (5 EF4s).

In my opinion this was also the outbreak of the decade so far. You had a full on supercell outbreak in Arkansas and Missouri on Friday with an attendant QLCS north of it. Then on Saturday, while storm mode was more messy, you still had multiple, training supercell families that tracked all through Mississippi and embedded circulations later in Alabama.

Just the wide geography impacted, along with the significant and cyclical supercell production of tornados, leads me to that opinion.

Edit: to add on to this, I absolutely believe we were 2 or 3 flies in the ointment away from discussing how Saturday was the most violent outbreak since 4/27.
Click to expand...
Oh, and to answer your question, I personally couldn't find a two day period with twenty significant tornadoes on both days .... Well, depending on how you count the overnight hours. I didn't research it exhaustively but somewhat thoroughly.
 
ColdFront said:
This may be controversial, but I believe this is the closest we will get to a Super Tuesday style outbreak under the current ratings regime (5 EF4s).

In my opinion this was also the outbreak of the decade so far. You had a full on supercell outbreak in Arkansas and Missouri on Friday with an attendant QLCS north of it. Then on Saturday, while storm mode was more messy, you still had multiple, training supercell families that tracked all through Mississippi and embedded circulations later in Alabama.

Just the wide geography impacted, along with the significant and cyclical supercell production of tornados, leads me to that opinion.

Edit: to add on to this, I absolutely believe we were 2 or 3 flies in the ointment away from discussing how Saturday was the most violent outbreak since 4/27.
Click to expand...
Oh yeah, this outbreak has easily stomped on the strength and intensity of every other outbreak this decade, except for perhaps Easter, but 3/14-15 still had far more significant tornadoes in total, including more than 30 EF2s. We've discussed the northward motion as a limiting factor, but seeing how capable these storms were despite that, I'm not even sure if we could call it that (though eastward motion may have contributed to longer-tracked tornadoes); they were still putting down intense tornadoes like there was no tomorrow. Definitely makes me wonder what we would've been looking at if there were slightly different conditions in place, especially over Alabama.
 
Clancy said:
Oh yeah, this outbreak has easily stomped on the strength and intensity of every other outbreak this decade, except for perhaps Easter, but 3/14-15 still had far more significant tornadoes in total, including more than 30 EF2s. We've discussed the northward motion as a limiting factor, but seeing how capable these storms were despite that, I'm not even sure if we could call it that (though eastward motion may have contributed to longer-tracked tornadoes); they were still putting down intense tornadoes like there was no tomorrow. Definitely makes me wonder what we would've been looking at if there were slightly different conditions in place, especially over Alabama.
Click to expand...

Clancy said:
Oh yeah, this outbreak has easily stomped on the strength and intensity of every other outbreak this decade, except for perhaps Easter, but 3/14-15 still had far more significant tornadoes in total, including more than 30 EF2s. We've discussed the northward motion as a limiting factor, but seeing how capable these storms were despite that, I'm not even sure if we could call it that (though eastward motion may have contributed to longer-tracked tornadoes); they were still putting down intense tornadoes like there was no tomorrow. Definitely makes me wonder what we would've been looking at if there were slightly different conditions in place, especially over Alabama.
Click to expand...
So true….

So glad I got to witness it in live time and track it with all here!
 
Clancy said:
Oh yeah, this outbreak has easily stomped on the strength and intensity of every other outbreak this decade, except for perhaps Easter, but 3/14-15 still had far more significant tornadoes in total, including more than 30 EF2s. We've discussed the northward motion as a limiting factor, but seeing how capable these storms were despite that, I'm not even sure if we could call it that (though eastward motion may have contributed to longer-tracked tornadoes); they were still putting down intense tornadoes like there was no tomorrow. Definitely makes me wonder what we would've been looking at if there were slightly different conditions in place, especially over Alabama.
Click to expand...
More significant then 3/31 @Clancy ? Same amount of significant tornadoes. Though 1 Ef4
 
I didn't see it mentioned but BMX has finally put up details for the Walker county EF2; a nearly 40 mile track from Windham Springs in Tuscaloosa county to near Sipsey, very close to the 4/27 EF4 track. Mostly minor tree damage along the track until the end but quite surprised it stayed down that long, crossing nearly the entirety of Walker County.

I note that the DAT still doesn't show a tornado track south and east of West Plains from the Bakersfield tornado; I would be very surpised if that violent signature was not producing a tornado for that period, but stranger things have happened? Probably still surveying
 
ColdFront said:
This may be controversial, but I believe this is the closest we will get to a Super Tuesday style outbreak under the current ratings regime (5 EF4s).

In my opinion this was also the outbreak of the decade so far. You had a full on supercell outbreak in Arkansas and Missouri on Friday with an attendant QLCS north of it. Then on Saturday, while storm mode was more messy, you still had multiple, training supercell families that tracked all through Mississippi and embedded circulations later in Alabama.

Just the wide geography impacted, along with the significant and cyclical supercell production of tornados, leads me to that opinion.

Edit: to add on to this, I absolutely believe we were 2 or 3 flies in the ointment away from discussing how Saturday was the most violent outbreak since 4/27.
Click to expand...
It had a lot less semi long track(15.00+) miles to very long track tornadoes(75.00+) miles than this recent tornado outbreak did. 11 vs 32. 5 of these tornadoes from this tornado outbreak were on the ground for 50.00+ miles.

Edit: Super Tuesday had only 2 tornadoes that were on the ground for 50+ miles.
 
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ColdFront said:
This may be controversial, but I believe this is the closest we will get to a Super Tuesday style outbreak under the current ratings regime (5 EF4s).

In my opinion this was also the outbreak of the decade so far. You had a full on supercell outbreak in Arkansas and Missouri on Friday with an attendant QLCS north of it. Then on Saturday, while storm mode was more messy, you still had multiple, training supercell families that tracked all through Mississippi and embedded circulations later in Alabama.

Just the wide geography impacted, along with the significant and cyclical supercell production of tornados, leads me to that opinion.

Edit: to add on to this, I absolutely believe we were 2 or 3 flies in the ointment away from discussing how Saturday was the most violent outbreak since 4/27.
Click to expand...
I think even 1 or 2 flies may have escaped the ointment. There were 5 tornadoes with 50+ mile path lengths that happened over a period of 15 hours. The December 10th-11th, 2021 outbreak had 3 50+ mile path lengths over a period of 3 and 1/2 hours. April 27, 2011 had 8 50+ mile over a period of 18 hours but 7 of them occurred in only a 4 to 5 hour time frame.
 
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