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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

The outbreak's Wikipedia page now has a lovely graphic similar to those that are put on a lot of the site's outbreak pages. Really enjoy the visualization of data on these. Also, really great view of how well the SPC did with their risk delineations, even perfectly placing that ENH over the Pittsburg area and its attending tornado cluster on Sunday. The southern end of the risk areas resemble some of the more serious Deep South outbreaks in recent years, like Easter 2020, March 17 & 25, 2021 and April 28, 2014. That cluster in and around the Ozarks was something else; if they had put down a 30% tornado risk it would've easily verified twice over, considering the concentration of intense tornadoes per square mile. Unfortunately, also a lot of deadly tornadoes, several on both big days.
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If the Wikipedia page is generally accurate, this event now has the unique distinction of having back-to-back days with 20+ significant tornadoes (21 on 3/14, 20 on 3/15). I cannot recall the last time this occurred.
 
andyhb said:
If the Wikipedia page is generally accurate, this event now has the unique distinction of having back-to-back days with 20+ significant tornadoes (21 on 3/14, 20 on 3/15). I cannot recall the last time this occurred.
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I'll be interested to see if it's ever happened. This outbreak has been like having two outbreaks of the kind you'd see maybe once a year or less on consecutive days - even closer together in fact considering the lateness of the first major part of the outbreak. It seems to be more common to have one very intense day.

The November 1992 outbreak did have 18 on Nov 21 followed by 27 on Nov 22, which is quite close.
 
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It’s beating a dead horse, but I just really dislike how hard it is now to compare outbreaks. By any metric, this was a major outbreak. However, it’s just been made so difficult to compare modern post EF scale outbreaks to say, for example, one that occurred in 1985.

I was watching an interview with Dr Forbes recently and he voiced this same opinion. He stated that was one of his dislikes on the EF scale.
 
ColdFront said:
It’s beating a dead horse, but I just really dislike how hard it is now to compare outbreaks. By any metric, this was a major outbreak. However, it’s just been made so difficult to compare modern post EF scale outbreaks to say, for example, one that occurred in 1985.

I was watching an interview with Dr Forbes recently and he voiced this same opinion. He stated that was one of his dislikes on the EF scale.
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I feel like it’s better to compare outbreaks that have happened in the same decade. Provides a better feel for how the last couple of years have been.
 
AJS said:
I feel like it’s better to compare outbreaks that have happened in the same decade. Provides a better feel for how the last couple of years have been.
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Until there’s a 100% objective way to rate tornadoes, akin to the Saffir-Simpson scale for tropical cyclones, then tornado ratings will continue to have controversial decisions being made.
 
slenker said:
Until there’s a 100% objective way to rate tornadoes, akin to the Saffir-Simpson scale for tropical cyclones, then tornado ratings will continue to have controversial decisions being made.
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Eh, it's a whole other dead horse but I didn't realize until the last few years how controversial some of the SSHWS assessments can be, especially when (almost inevitably) recon just misses the apparent satellite peak of a rapidly intensifying TC.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Eh, it's a whole other dead horse but I didn't realize until the last few years how controversial some of the SSHWS assessments can be, especially when (almost inevitably) recon just misses the apparent satellite peak of a rapidly intensifying TC.
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I genuinely had no idea there was a whole conversation on how controversial SSHWS could be. However, the criteria on the scale for hurricanes are most certainly more objective than the surveying of tornado damage, as they rely on windspeed measurements, which is definitely more reliable than how many different WFOs approach the EF scale.
 
jiharris0220 said:
It’s honestly comical the flack Tim is catching on twitter for not satisfying the weenies by not upgrading Diaz to Ef5, despite him utterly having no hand in the initial survey.

Even though the only real chance it had was the seemingly impressive damage to the foundation, but even that was just likely damage from the front end loader during cleanup.

There’s no actual contextual damage anywhere in the path of this thing that screams Ef5. This survey couldn’t gone any better with the 190mph rating.
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Yeah, I get the impression Tim himself is a semi-retired guy who probably enjoys the reactions he gets ...lol.
 
ColdFront said:
Edit: removed my comment about Tim Marshall. Not relevant to this conversation. However, I will say some of his personal behavior isn’t professional and I’ll leave it at that.
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I don’t care too much for Tim, but it really is hard to ignore the impact and significant he has had on the way we rate tornadoes. I don’t know why he is known as the weather survey boogeyman as he has actually backed up a lot of tornado ratings in the past. I mean, he found 22 homes throughout Joplin that met the criteria for an EF5 rating. Plus, Marshall was legitimately impressed with the damage in Matador and thought it pointed to a higher intensity. Also, Marshall was not aware of that one home in Vilonia that was not surveyed.

Some of his takes I don’t agree with at all either. Some of his statements regarding the Mayfield tornado in particular, or his rating of the Westminster TX F3, but he generally has made a huge impact on this community and I do think he made a fair and reasonable rating explanation about the Diaz, AR tornado.

I do agree that some of his behaviors aren’t professional though @ColdFront
 
Hard to find a list of updated most tornadoes in a single day for Alabama, this was the latest one for Alabama back in 2011. I know if two events that broke into the top 10 where the March 17, 2021 and March 25th 2021 events. So this system should rank somewhere in the 10-6 spot. This event was historic for Alabama even though it didn't live up to its hype, we are very lucky it isnt vying for the #2/#3 spot.

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UncleJuJu98 said:
Hard to find a list of updated most tornadoes in a single day for Alabama, this was the latest one for Alabama back in 2011. I know if two events that broke into the top 10 where the March 17, 2021 and March 25th 2021 events. So this system should rank somewhere in the 10-6 spot. This event was historic for Alabama even though it didn't live up to its hype, we are very lucky it isnt vying for the #2/#3 spot.

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Thanks for sharing @UncleJuJu98
 
TH2002 said:
More footage to come, but I had to share this first:

What NOT to do in a tornado (the infamous Little Rock footage from 2023):


What TO do in a tornado (Hot Coffee, MS EF2):


You don't need to put your life in any more danger than it already is to get good footage, people.
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No matter how often I see these types of videos, the sound of a house or building getting hit is just endlessly horrifying to me.
 
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