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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Also why does it seem like he's pissed off here?

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Is it significant that the door was flimsy and that the victims were uninjured? You'd give it the same rating either way. Why even mention it? Certainly didn't matter in Vilonia.
 
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Don’t shoot the messenger, but 8 feet in spacing is considered too wide from an engineering perspective. When considering EF5 candidates, they typically look for 4 feet or less if I remember correctly.
The question is whether the 8 feet of spacing is from anchor bolts never being put in or if they were pulled out by the tornado and/or clean up.
 
Do we have a different angle from the south on this that isn’t blurred?
The tornado was a very narrow funnel that passed on the north side of the house. Likely with a very tight damage gradient. That one tree tipped over likely experienced a brief burst of inflow that was surging in past the potted plants.
IMO the only thing the precludes an EF5 rating is the not total sweeping and minor structural flaws. Not the contextuals on the south side of the home. Cause as you can see starting in the direct funnel path the tree’s were being snapped off at nearly ground level. Also the one that was thrown from who know’s where onto the foundation itself.
Here’s video from the south of the home:


As for tree damage, I do believe it should be a factor in upgrading or downgrading a rating (in the immediate area of course, unlike the Vilonia fiasco) and in this case the trees are denuded and stripped, but not debarked at a level you’d see when EF5 winds are present. Obviously different tree species are more or less susceptible to debarking than others, but some of these trees in Diaz still have an awful lot of branches intact where if I’m a surveyor I’d be more hesitant to say EF5 damage occurred at this location. Like you mentioned, there is also an entire tree on the foundation which could’ve very well structurally compromised a portion of the house and was probably also taken into account in settling with the final EF4 rating.
"Typical nails"? WTF does that even mean? No pictures or description? Does he mean NORMAL nails? If straps are required for EF5 damage we're going to be searching for a long time. If a tornado's chances of hitting a structure built to his standards is next to zero then what the heck is even the point? EF5s just don't exist in the world and news until that happens?
I think what he’s getting at is the sill plates were likely straight nailed into the studs below, which is considered a weakness in anchoring. There is obvious anchor-bolting with nuts and washers, but there was probably a weakness in the studs/joists into the sill plating is what I think he means.
 
As for tree damage, I do believe it should be a factor in upgrading or downgrading a rating (in the immediate area of course, unlike the Vilonia fiasco) and in this case the trees are denuded and stripped, but not debarked at a level you’d see when EF5 winds are present.
I believe completely stripped and debarked trees are indicative of high end EF5 wind speeds (250 MPH+) and not 200 MPH. We've seen way too many slabs from well built homes without significant denuding and debarking to conclude otherwise. Also denuding and debarking usually is the result of wind driven debris pelting, so if a house is alone in a field, its trees will be less debarked.

Like you mentioned, there is also an entire tree on the foundation which could’ve very well structurally compromised a portion of the house and was probably also taken into account in settling with the final EF4 rating.

I can get behind this reasoning more than any of Marshall's. It's a solid take and justifies high-end EF4. The question remains, what type of winds are required to fully uproot and launch a mature tree into a house with the destructive force of a wrecking ball? I can't get behind the idea that it's just a shrug and a lower wind rating whenever we see it. 190 mph was a great compromise by the surveyors.

I think what he’s getting at is the sill plates were likely straight nailed into the studs below, which is considered a weakness in anchoring. There is obvious anchor-bolting with nuts and washers, but there was probably a weakness in the studs/joists into the sill plating is what I think he means.
He should say that then. "Typical nails" provides no clarity whatsoever. Typical means different things to different people. But I see missing sills, which tells me the studs were mounted well enough to take the sill with them.
 
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Reddit cracks me up lol.

This is legitimately what someone said about the Diaz, Arkansas tornado.

I don’t even wanna know what’s being said on twitter rn.
I would go with a 185 to 195 mph EF4 for the Diaz tornado. The debris was still rather large and concentrated near the foundation which is solidly in the EF4 category. An EF5 would have granulated the debris and swept the remaining away.
 
I would go with a 185 to 195 mph EF4 for the Diaz tornado. The debris was still rather large and concentrated near the foundation which is solidly in the EF4 category. An EF5 would have granulated the debris and swept the remaining away.
Agreed. Except, I believe the additional fact the house was brick solidifies it as 190 mph+
 
So. Exactly how many homes which are alone in open fields, that have no significant other structures or tree’s directly around them. Which are, large, brick, with detached garages, plentiful hurricane clips, no massive windows, sufficient toenailing for the correctly built wood frame, that also have 4 foot spaced anchor bolts on every exterior and some critical interior walls, that are properly installed and of the correct type,
EXIST…in America?

I know it’s an impossible question to answer.

You’d think you’d find plenty of those in central Oklahoma but apparently not.
 
So. Exactly how many homes which are alone in open fields, that have no significant other structures or tree’s directly around them. Which are, large, brick, with detached garages, plentiful hurricane clips, no massive windows, sufficient toenailing for the correctly built wood frame, that also have 4 foot spaced anchor bolts on every exterior and some critical interior walls, that are properly installed and of the correct type,
EXIST…in America?

I know it’s an impossible question to answer.

You’d think you’d find plenty of those in central Oklahoma but apparently not.
The only way to fix the issue…is to make the scale way less strict again.
 
My response to Marshall:
Michael Scott Reaction GIF



1. Those plants were obviously collected and lined up in the immediate aftermath, or brought in from somewhere else. If they survived a tornado like that, the only conclusion it would indicate is that tornadoes are beyond our current understanding. A light breeze could knock over those pots, but the house was obliterated by a full-grown, uprooted, wind launched maple tree.

2. "Typical nails"? WTF does that even mean? No pictures or description? Does he mean NORMAL nails? If straps are required for EF5 damage we're going to be searching for a long time. If a tornado's chances of hitting a structure built to his standards is next to zero then what the heck is even the point? EF5s just don't exist in the world and news until that happens?

3. He's referencing anchor bolts "missing", but doesn't acknowledged that they were ripped out of the ground or bent by the tornado, as evidenced by the HOLES IN THE CONCRETE where they were. Which makes his statement a half truth at best, and full blown misinformation at worst.

4. Clothesline intact... A steel pole, anchored in concrete, with no surface area, WAS INTACT? How about the pole anchored in 3 feet of concrete that was uprooted just down the street?? It was in the chat, did you not get the memo?

5. Lack of debarking. Most tree clean up was done before he arrived on site, as you can see in the original picture. Also note the debarking of the tree on the slab. Both these pics clearly show debarked trees.

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Why is this dude an authority on tornado damage again?
There’s nothing to indicate that Tim made any direct comments about the plants, clothes line poles or anything else. Those pics are not even from his survey, and were clearly taken the morning after by someone named Bret Bowen.

In fact, the only things Tim commented about on his page pertain to the home’s anchor bolts and cellar, denuded trees, and tossed cars. There is zero mention of potted plants, clothes lines, or a lack of debarking. The “contextual discrepancies” appear to be extrapolations made by the Twitter user “300MPHEF5” based on those morning after photos. It’s not valid survey info from Tim, and a quick look at his Facebook page proves this.

My point is, if you want to do an objective critique of the survey’s reasoning that’s fine, but the problem is that you’re making massive leaps in judgement, that led you to making claims of more questionable reasoning from Tim Marshall, that he never actually made. Instead, the claims are actually from a random Twitter user looking at pictures. This is the type of misinformation telephone and conclusion-jumping that keeps me away from weather twitter, and it’s not exactly a delight to see this kind of thing on here. You’re more than welcome to participate in damage/EF scale discussion here, but to be taken seriously, you have to do your due diligence and not mis-attribute info, or post typical weather twitter rumor mill output here as valid survey info. You need to stick to reliable, directly verifiable information, or the quality of the discussion gets dragged down as misinformation gets spread.
 
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There’s nothing to indicate that Tim made any direct comments about the plants, clothes line poles or anything else. Those pics are not even from his survey, and were clearly taken the morning after by someone named Bret Bowen.

In fact, the only things Tim commented about on his page pertain to the home’s anchor bolts and cellar, denuded trees, and tossed cars. There is zero mention of potted plants, clothes lines, or a lack of debarking. The “contextual discrepancies” appear to be extrapolations made by the Twitter user “300MPHEF5” based on those morning after photos. It’s not valid survey info from Tim, and a quick look at his Facebook page proves this.

My point is, if you want to do an objective critique of the survey’s reasoning that’s fine, but the problem is that you’re making massive leaps in judgement, that led you to making claims of more questionable reasoning from Tim Marshall, that he never actually made. Instead, the claims are actually from a random Twitter user looking at pictures. This is the type of misinformation telephone and conclusion-jumping that keeps me away from weather twitter, and it’s not exactly a delight to see this kind of thing on here. You’re more than welcome to participate in damage/EF scale discussion here, but to be taken seriously, you have to do your due diligence and not mis-attribute info, or post typical weather twitter rumor mill output here as valid survey info. You need to stick to reliable, directly verifiable information, or the quality of the discussion gets dragged down as misinformation gets spread.
It’s honestly comical the flack Tim is catching on twitter for not satisfying the weenies by not upgrading Diaz to Ef5, despite him utterly having no hand in the initial survey.

Even though the only real chance it had was the seemingly impressive damage to the foundation, but even that was just likely damage from the front end loader during cleanup.

There’s no actual contextual damage anywhere in the path of this thing that screams Ef5. This survey couldn’t gone any better with the 190mph rating.
 
It’s honestly comical the flack Tim is catching on twitter for not satisfying the weenies by not upgrading Diaz to Ef5, despite him utterly having no hand in the initial survey.

Even though the only real chance it had was the seemingly impressive damage to the foundation, but even that was just likely damage from the front end loader during cleanup.

There’s no actual contextual damage anywhere in the path of this thing that screams Ef5. This survey couldn’t gone any better with the 190mph rating.
I don’t agree with everything he says, but he’s definitely the preferred scapegoat when it comes to rating controversies.

Edit: toned it down a bit lol
 
The “contextual discrepancies” appear to be extrapolations made by the Twitter user “300MPHEF5” based on those morning after photos. It’s not valid survey info from Tim, and a quick look at his Facebook page proves this.
Yes. I should’ve clarified on the Twitter post and in the thread that those were purely my observations, although the typical nails and NWS being official comment was from him. Was running a bit low on sleep last night when I posted that, but definitely should’ve clarified most of that was my own observations as to why EF4 is the right call.

Those things lead to stuff like this getting posted lol. I find it funny he’s essentially seen as the boogeyman of tornado surveyors.
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Yes. I should’ve clarified on the Twitter post and in the thread that those were purely my observations, although the typical nails and NWS being official comment was from him. Was running a bit low on sleep last night when I posted that, but definitely should’ve clarified most of that was my own observations as to why EF4 is the right call.

Those things lead to stuff like this getting posted lol. I find it funny he’s essentially seen as the boogeyman of tornado surveyors.
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No worries. It’s not my intention to drag you, or anyone for that matter. My apologies if I came off as harsh or dismissive of you. I just think it’s important to stay within the boundaries of verifiable information and avoid feeding the social media rumor mill.
 
No worries. It’s not my intention to drag you, or anyone for that matter. My apologies if I came off as harsh or dismissive of you. I just think it’s important to stay within the boundaries of verifiable information and avoid feeding the social media rumor mill.
No problem man. I completely agree, which again I should’ve made a disclaimer sooner that much of those observations were noted by me instead of Tim.

It’s honestly comical the flack Tim is catching on twitter for not satisfying the weenies by not upgrading Diaz to Ef5, despite him utterly having no hand in the initial survey.
It really is getting ridiculous, this is just a handful of comments I’ve seen this morning.
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No problem man. I completely agree, which again I should’ve made a disclaimer sooner that much of those observations were noted by me instead of Tim.


It really is getting ridiculous, this is just a handful of comments I’ve seen this morning.
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Seems about right for “random sports, weather guy” and “Spomer”.
 
I believe completely stripped and debarked trees are indicative of high end EF5 wind speeds (250 MPH+) and not 200 MPH. We've seen way too many slabs from well built homes without significant denuding and debarking to conclude otherwise. Also denuding and debarking usually is the result of wind driven debris pelting, so if a house is alone in a field, its trees will be less debarked.



I can get behind this reasoning more than any of Marshall's. It's a solid take and justifies high-end EF4. The question remains, what type of winds are required to fully uproot and launch a mature tree into a house with the destructive force of a wrecking ball? I can't get behind the idea that it's just a shrug and a lower wind rating whenever we see it. 190 mph was a great compromise by the surveyors.


He should say that then. "Typical nails" provides no clarity whatsoever. Typical means different things to different people. But I see missing sills, which tells me the studs were mounted well enough to take the sill with them.
on the IF scale its 236 mph for complete Debarkation
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Not ratings-related, but just noticed this is not only by far the largest thread by accumulation of replies before an event even started, but it also far outstrips every other thread on the board (since it was moved to new hosting in 2017) except for Significant Tornado Events, which is going on 6 years old in June!
 
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