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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Was gonna come here and forward this but you beat me to it! I 100% agree with the rating, I think it’s borderline but high-end EF4 was absolutely the right call here. Initially I thought the thing had a legitimate shot at an EF5 rating, but the more detail I noticed in that ground video and the aerial photo the evidence was a little too damning to side with an EF5 rating there. Firstly the large amount of debris on the foundation was going to be a swaying factor, it wasn’t as clean of a sweep as you’d typically see in a true EF5 tornado. A handful of the trees very nearby the house still had most of their branches including the smaller twigs intact, and there wasn’t any clear debarking immediately near the residence. The small plants is really what got me. I have no idea how those didn’t get blown away (or even knocked over) and was curious if they were placed there afterwards, but the aerial and ground footage that morning indicates they were there during the tornado. Good call by the NWS in this case.
Tornadoes can have very erratic and complex wind fields, so the small potted plants not being damaged at all is something that has been observed before. Outside of that, I think you make great points in your post and I definitely agree with you. I believe that high-end EF4 is the right call because the debris wasn't totally swept away, the contextual damage falls just short, and that large tree being thrown into the home definitely could have comprised the structure's integrity. Other than that, this tornado came very close to breaking the EF5 "drought" and taking the non-EF5 reasons out of the equation, this is some seriously impressive damage that we don't see all too often.
 
Tornadoes can have very erratic and complex wind fields, so the small potted plants not being damaged at all is something that has been observed before. Outside of that, I think you make great points in your post and I definitely agree with you. I believe that high-end EF4 is the right call because the debris wasn't totally swept away, the contextual damage falls just short, and that large tree being thrown into the home definitely could have comprised the structure's integrity. Other than that, this tornado came very close to breaking the EF5 "drought" and taking the non-EF5 reasons out of the equation, this is some seriously impressive damage that we don't see all too often.
one thing to note is the whole not completely swept clean meaning not EF5 is not true for the NEW EF scale.
image.png
however there has already been some change with this DI and its up to 12 DOD now i think
 
And what does this updated scale mean by “stronger than typical resistance”?
1742491635152.png
quick example of the full typical resistance of a frame house (its to note that if im correct 0 F5 or EF5 have ever happend in the hurricane prone region as defined by ASCE 7.)
if this is true 0 EF5/F5 have even happend on planet earth as evrey F5 have failed this one step. but then again i would need to refind this map
 
View attachment 36813
quick example of the full typical resistance of a frame house (its to note that if im correct 0 F5 or EF5 have ever happend in the hurricane prone region as defined by ASCE 7.)
if this is true 0 EF5/F5 have even happend on planet earth as evrey F5 have failed this one step. but then again i would need to refind this map
1742491781298.png
i cant fit the whole thing cause there a awkward gap in the way.

i seem to have found the hurricane prone area code for MOBILE homes at least
1742491864360.png
unsure if frame homes are the same or not.
 
View attachment 36813
quick example of the full typical resistance of a frame house (its to note that if im correct 0 F5 or EF5 have ever happend in the hurricane prone region as defined by ASCE 7.)
if this is true 0 EF5/F5 have even happend on planet earth as evrey F5 have failed this one step. but then again i would need to refind this map
ok i found the real ASCE 7 MAP
1742492077057.png
here is a rough outline of the can and can not be rated EF5 zone
1742492237126.png
only one F5 has ever happened in this zone
1742492303536.png
 
I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that no house of this level of construction has ever been slabbed by a tornado before in history.

Would you agree with this statement? Cause I doubt any exist in violent tornado prone area’s.
So it’s still basically impossible for any tornado to be rated EF5 anymore.
 
There’s nothing to indicate that Tim made any direct comments about the plants, clothes line poles or anything else. Those pics are not even from his survey, and were clearly taken the morning after by someone named Bret Bowen.

In fact, the only things Tim commented about on his page pertain to the home’s anchor bolts and cellar, denuded trees, and tossed cars. There is zero mention of potted plants, clothes lines, or a lack of debarking. The “contextual discrepancies” appear to be extrapolations made by the Twitter user “300MPHEF5” based on those morning after photos. It’s not valid survey info from Tim, and a quick look at his Facebook page proves this.

My point is, if you want to do an objective critique of the survey’s reasoning that’s fine, but the problem is that you’re making massive leaps in judgement, that led you to making claims of more questionable reasoning from Tim Marshall, that he never actually made. Instead, the claims are actually from a random Twitter user looking at pictures. This is the type of misinformation telephone and conclusion-jumping that keeps me away from weather twitter, and it’s not exactly a delight to see this kind of thing on here. You’re more than welcome to participate in damage/EF scale discussion here, but to be taken seriously, you have to do your due diligence and not mis-attribute info, or post typical weather twitter rumor mill output here as valid survey info. You need to stick to reliable, directly verifiable information, or the quality of the discussion gets dragged down as misinformation gets spread.
You're right. I edited out the unverifiable points in my original comment. Fell victim to the Twitter rage bait because it sounded so much like things Tim Marshall has said in the past. Sorry about that. I'm definitely well versed in tornado damage and the EF scale, but I did some serious damage to my credibility on the topic with this one.
 
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Also nws Springfield has completely failed to survey several tornadoes after the Bakersfield EF3. They absolutely need to come clean on this it’s 2025 in no way should we allow several intense tornadoes to go completely unsurveyed.
They’ve given no indication they’ve surveyed that area of their CWA.
 
Hey @TH2002, sorry if it’s a big ask, but have you found any good raw video from this outbreak that’s buried on YouTube? You have knack for sifting through and circumventing YouTube’s garbage search function and finding cool stuff. No biggie if not though.
Didn’t find anything when I did some quick searching the day after the outbreak. I’ll do more digging when I get off work today though. If I find anything, I’ll post it.
 
Also nws Springfield has completely failed to survey several tornadoes after the Bakersfield EF3. They absolutely need to come clean on this it’s 2025 in no way should we allow several intense tornadoes to go completely unsurveyed.
They’ve given no indication they’ve surveyed that area of their CWA.

Would be worth gathering photos and making your case about this.

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that no house of this level of construction has ever been slabbed by a tornado before in history.

Would you agree with this statement? Cause I doubt any exist in violent tornado prone area’s.
So it’s still basically impossible for any tornado to be rated EF5 anymore.

Yeah, the criteria for even typical construction seems impossibly strict when we're just talking about 200 MPH winds. Especially considering the original F scale was just "strong framed houses tossed off foundation", which was a 260 mph+ wind speed indicator, and NOAA has published studies concluding original F scale ratings match the reality of tornado wind speeds better than the EF scale. As for your question, @TH2002 is probably the best qualified person on this site to answer it.
 
There were over a 100 tornadoes from this outbreak. People getting up-in-arms over incomplete damage surveys when we’re about 5 days removed from the worst of the outbreak really need to calm down. I understand the Bakersfield tornado rating causing some controversy, but outside of that, barely anything is fully finalized. People really need to give them some time.
 
This place was almost peak Wx Twitter on Friday when we had some discord poster leaking NWS chat contents. Their other sole contribution was to write “ZOMG” after posting a sounding.
I may have missed this, and this isn’t directed at you, but Slack comments aren’t secretive communications. If I could I would make sure every single person could see the chat. It hurts no one. Posting is a different story. Some offices may think they’re God like and rule over chat with an iron fist, but that’s not the case at FFC and a few other offices I have knowledge of in the Southern Region.
 
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View attachment 36781
Reddit cracks me up lol.

This is legitimately what someone said about the Diaz, Arkansas tornado.

I don’t even wanna know what’s being said on twitter rn.
I got dogpiled on Reddit for suggesting EF4 was completely justified. Using the exact same logic NWS/Marshall used for Diaz. Those small trees at the front of the property, aside from branches, have little damage. So we know strong winds were not present at ground level. Anchor Bolt failure could have been precipitated by building collapse, not necessarily the wind as well.

/R/Tornado and /R/EF5 believe its a conspiracy though. EF5 made a nerd/sigma meme with my comment and one of the crazier opinions below it.
 
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