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Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

I mean it's not like one model run caused the start of the thread. Multiple runs were showing a potent setup. The SPC had eyes on it over a week ago.

It was only like the 10th D6 30% in history. I don't understand why that wouldn't be worth it's own thread. Not every setup has to be 4/27
That was extraordinary, which is partially why I am sure Michelle green lit the thread.

This event isn’t even over yet. Last time I checked the title of this thread said March 3rd-5th severe threat.

I wish people would stop criticizing those who have a job they themselves don’t have the education, knowledge, experience, tools, etc for. If people think they can do better then let them go apply and show them how it’s done.

Predicting the weather is hard. Just look at some of your sports brackets :)
 
Deja vu

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Mesoscale Discussion 0136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama and the Florida
panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 042202Z - 042300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A downstream watch will be needed with a threat for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes across portions of southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle.

DISCUSSION...A strongly-forced line of convection is ongoing this afternoon across portions of southeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi. Moisture ahead of the line has been relatively meager, with modified continental air mass in place across southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle yielding surface dewpoints largely in the 50s to low 60s F. As the line approaches from the west, the low-level mass response is expected to turn the winds more southerly, bringing higher moisture onshore and at least some positive buoyancy. The 21Z KLIX sounding shows the effect of this with a deep moist adiabatic layer near the surface resulting in meager CAPE values.

Given the very strong low-level flow in that sounding and on VWPs across the region, and despite the poor low-level lapse rates, convection is expected to mix some of that flow down to the surface producing a threat for damaging gusts. In addition, given the strong low-level shear, some mesovortex-type tornadoes are possible in the line as the line moves to the east with time.

..Supinie/Mosier.. 03/04/2025
 
It’s lightning here (Tuscaloosa) and still unbelievably windy. Whichever one of you commented about the pollen shooting you your nose, the same thing just happened to me. My neighbors shingles are flying off their room (not bouncy house neighbor)
 
I've never seen a severe weather threat with so many fires breaking out due to lightning and/or powerlines hitting against trees due to the wind. Three ongoing in Western AL. Sumter County, Lamar, and Marion Counties
 
Anyone else experiencing issues with KHTX on Radarscope? Specifically reflectivity on tilt 1? Other radars on Radarscope are working fine for me, and I can view KHTX with no problem online via the NWS, but all I'm seeing on Radarscope is lightning strikes, storm tracks and wind reports but nothing on reflectivity on tilt 1.
 
It’s lightning here (Tuscaloosa) and still unbelievably windy. Whichever one of you commented about the pollen shooting you your nose, the same thing just happened to me. My neighbors shingles are flying off their room (not bouncy house neighbor)
That was me with the tree pollen but it was not as severe as what you are going through (yet). Stay safe!!!
 
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