-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
gangstonc
Member
- Messages
- 2,851
- Location
- Meridianville
As an old man, I’ve seemingly noticed that most of the time the first system of the season struggles a little bit with moisture and temps. However, sometimes they overcome that.
These early season systems seem to be good at showing us how the pattern is set up for the next couple months.
These early season systems seem to be good at showing us how the pattern is set up for the next couple months.
NorthGaWeather
Member
- Messages
- 627
- Location
- Canton, GA
Still seems there will be a layer of “just-in-time” destabilization ahead of the line into North and Central Georgia. We noticed this with the last svr wx event as the line made it into Northeast Georgia and SC with reports.
tennessee storm chaser
Member
Going over 0z gfs model …. See a north expansion with the 30 percent…. I am staying up for the 0z euro run…
Those recent GFS runs today make me think there’s a good possibility for long track EF3+ tornado potential in the heart of the Day 6 30% risk area.
Model output now starting to look genuinely quite supportive of a higher end tornado threat this morning, with pretty high agreement across the models for a favorable, powerful trough. UKMET and the GFS seemingly leading an uptick in the thermodynamic profiles as well - especially interested if the high lapse rate plume which crosses the gulf continues trending west which it very well may do so with the continued slightly southward trend in the low.
Obviously still a bit early for details but I am quite interested by the model's ideal of a pseudo-dryline (pacific front?) which others have mentioned. Instability is much stronger along there, and any supercells could mature off the dryline, move into stronger shear in the open warm sector and become tornadic. Additionally, some hints of pre-frontal confluence too. Amazing job by the SPC to pick out this severe threat to be potentially very significant so early.
Obviously still a bit early for details but I am quite interested by the model's ideal of a pseudo-dryline (pacific front?) which others have mentioned. Instability is much stronger along there, and any supercells could mature off the dryline, move into stronger shear in the open warm sector and become tornadic. Additionally, some hints of pre-frontal confluence too. Amazing job by the SPC to pick out this severe threat to be potentially very significant so early.
- Messages
- 6,437
- Location
- Birmingham
SPC long range discussion
" Medium-range guidance suggests that an initially zonal, intense
mid/upper jet across the western into central mid-latitude Pacific
may undergo considerable amplification into and through this period.
It remains a bit unclear how emerging waves will impact the
downstream pattern by the middle to latter portion of next week.
However, it still appears that one significant preceding short wave
trough, migrating inland of the Pacific coast by early Monday, will
progress into and across the southern Rockies, before accelerating
east-northeastward through mid week. And guidance remains
suggestive that this will be accompanied by strong surface
cyclogenesis, perhaps most notably across portions of the east
central Great Plains toward the lower Great Lakes region late
Tuesday through Tuesday night. This may include an evolving warm
sector with intensifying low-level and deep-layer shear (in the
presence of southerly to southwesterly flow strengthening to 50-100
kt in the 850 to 500 mb layer), coincident with an influx of
moistening and destabilizing boundary-layer air off the northwestern
Gulf.
Spread typical at this extended time frame (day 5) lingers among the
various model output concerning the sub-synoptic, and even synoptic,
details across the southeastern Great Plains through Ohio Valley and
Southeast, which may considerably impact the severe weather risk
area and potential. However, the medium-range guidance depicts an
environment at least conditionally supportive of an organized severe
weather event, including potential for a few strong tornadoes and
damaging straight line winds.
It is possible, but perhaps a bit more uncertain, that this could
continue across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard
on Wednesday. "
" Medium-range guidance suggests that an initially zonal, intense
mid/upper jet across the western into central mid-latitude Pacific
may undergo considerable amplification into and through this period.
It remains a bit unclear how emerging waves will impact the
downstream pattern by the middle to latter portion of next week.
However, it still appears that one significant preceding short wave
trough, migrating inland of the Pacific coast by early Monday, will
progress into and across the southern Rockies, before accelerating
east-northeastward through mid week. And guidance remains
suggestive that this will be accompanied by strong surface
cyclogenesis, perhaps most notably across portions of the east
central Great Plains toward the lower Great Lakes region late
Tuesday through Tuesday night. This may include an evolving warm
sector with intensifying low-level and deep-layer shear (in the
presence of southerly to southwesterly flow strengthening to 50-100
kt in the 850 to 500 mb layer), coincident with an influx of
moistening and destabilizing boundary-layer air off the northwestern
Gulf.
Spread typical at this extended time frame (day 5) lingers among the
various model output concerning the sub-synoptic, and even synoptic,
details across the southeastern Great Plains through Ohio Valley and
Southeast, which may considerably impact the severe weather risk
area and potential. However, the medium-range guidance depicts an
environment at least conditionally supportive of an organized severe
weather event, including potential for a few strong tornadoes and
damaging straight line winds.
It is possible, but perhaps a bit more uncertain, that this could
continue across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard
on Wednesday. "
- Messages
- 1,786
- Location
- Norman, OK
The 06z Euro and GFS are bad, very bad for LA and vicinity on 3/4. The Euro is bordering on an outbreak scenario.
Very dangerous looking sounding off the Euro near Shreveport at 21z. Incredible shear, and enough instability and forcing to utilize it.
Very dangerous looking sounding off the Euro near Shreveport at 21z. Incredible shear, and enough instability and forcing to utilize it.
tennessee storm chaser
Member
Appears each model run since late yesterday , is slowly increasing the quality moisture return
- Messages
- 6,437
- Location
- Birmingham
That's what typically happens, Clancy mentioned it yesterday. Color me shocked if parts of the ARK/LA/MISS region doesn't reach 1500-2000j or more for this event
CheeselandSkies
Member
- Messages
- 3,841
- Location
- Madison, WI
It's been a consistent feature on the GFS with this system, that the moisture seems to have no trouble advecting north, but seems to have great difficulty expanding from west to east. Why the persistent dry air over AL/GA?
- Messages
- 1,786
- Location
- Norman, OK
Probably remnants from that lead wave that passes through on Sunday/Monday.
Mundiejc
Member
- Messages
- 12
- Location
- Birmingham
It looks like to me that surface winds are basically coming from Florida the 24 hours before the system, southeast to northwest, so it's pulling dry air. Which may functionally be what you're saying Andy. The first wave is preventing winds from shifting more south and pulling more directly from the gulf.
- Messages
- 1,786
- Location
- Norman, OK
Yes, it is a function of the background flow from the ridge off the EC that develops this weekend being disrupted by that disturbance.
Notable trend on the GFS for a much more amplified and faster trough. Almost seems like a loop through the run but all images in the GIF above are the same time on different runs. If anything I could see that leading to over forcing and the warm sector becoming slightly more "pinched off". But no other models so far seem to be picking up on anything to a similar extent, so will be interesting to watch it play out and see where we area in a day or so with regards to the trough ejection.
Parker Copeland
Member
- Messages
- 0
- Location
- Zanesville, Ohio
So, I see uptrends and SPC expanded that 30% a ton.......great
Really strong CIPS values from East TX into the Lower MSV. CSU's system is in close agreement with the D5 outlined by the SPC. Models still flip-flopping a bit at usual levels for this range, but everyone from Houston to Birmingham should have their guard up for this event. Could certainly foresee nasty after-dark surprises in MS and AL given the strong wind fields, even with meager instability.
Parker Copeland
Member
- Messages
- 0
- Location
- Zanesville, Ohio
oh man, dat looks gnarly