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Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

JPWX

JPWX

Member
Meteorologist
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2,830
Location
Smithville MS
I will start the thread for next week's severe threat. Looking very interesting.
 

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Have we ever created a thread for an event 8+ days out?

Obviously I think it's warranted considering it's been hinted at for probably over ten days at this point, just crazy how far out this has been forecasted.
 
TornadoFan17 said:
Have we ever created a thread for an event 8+ days out?

Obviously I think it's warranted considering it's been hinted at for probably over ten days at this point, just crazy how far out this has been forecasted.
Click to expand...
I think(?) it has happened a few times, but can't recall any specific examples. I'd say this is a bit unique in being a consistent feature on models, moreso than most events I recently recall. Of course, I have seen things that look potentially problematic completely melt away by the day of.
 
TornadoFan17 said:
Have we ever created a thread for an event 8+ days out?

Obviously I think it's warranted considering it's been hinted at for probably over ten days at this point, just crazy how far out this has been forecasted.
Click to expand...
This was a thing a while back, BUT I thought we had to wait until the SPC highlighted an area first. I guess not lol

In any case.. email notifications ON! :)
 
KevinH said:
This was a thing a while back, BUT I thought we had to wait until the SPC highlighted an area first. I guess not lol

In any case.. email notifications ON! :)
Click to expand...
Oh yeah, I forgot that there were discussions about that! I remember we also had to take some time, on at least a few occasions, to figure out how chronographically spacious threads should be, I think most recently during the stuff going on in the Plains in 2024?
 
TornadoFan17 said:
Have we ever created a thread for an event 8+ days out?

Obviously I think it's warranted considering it's been hinted at for probably over ten days at this point, just crazy how far out this has been forecasted.
Click to expand...
What’s even crazier is the consistency of models showing this . All blends
 
Considering the talk, not only on here, but on multiple social media platforms by mets and the general weather community about how bad this spring tornado season could be, I green lit this thread, even though it's over a week out. It's been consistently showing up and this very well could be our first big problem of the season.
 
MichelleH said:
Considering the talk, not only on here, but on multiple social media platforms by mets and the general weather community about how bad this spring tornado season could be, I green lit this thread, even though it's over a week out. It's been consistently showing up and this very well could be our first big problem of the season.
Click to expand...
Remembering that 2011 was seen developing many days out, I think this deserves our attention because modeling has improved considerably since then..
 
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A dry, continental airmass across the eastern CONUS and northern
Gulf will keep severe weather potential low on D4/Fri and D5/Sat. By
D6/Sun, as the mid-level low starts to translate into the southern
Plains, robust low-level moisture advection is expected to occur
ahead of a developing surface cyclone. After this time, severe
weather may be possible any day through early next week. In general,
the overall pattern suggests moisture returning to the southern
Plains and parts of the Southeast with a broad trough in the western
CONUS with a series of shortwave troughs advecting into the Plains
and eventually across the eastern CONUS. This pattern will likely
support one or more severe weather episodes, but pinpointing the
exact day and location will require less variance in the timing and
amplitude of the mid-level pattern within the extended range
ensemble suite. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities are
warranted at this time.
 
MichelleH said:
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A dry, continental airmass across the eastern CONUS and northern
Gulf will keep severe weather potential low on D4/Fri and D5/Sat. By
D6/Sun, as the mid-level low starts to translate into the southern
Plains, robust low-level moisture advection is expected to occur
ahead of a developing surface cyclone. After this time, severe
weather may be possible any day through early next week. In general,
the overall pattern suggests moisture returning to the southern
Plains and parts of the Southeast with a broad trough in the western
CONUS with a series of shortwave troughs advecting into the Plains
and eventually across the eastern CONUS. This pattern will likely
support one or more severe weather episodes, but pinpointing the
exact day and location will require less variance in the timing and
amplitude of the mid-level pattern within the extended range
ensemble suite. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities are
warranted at this time.
Click to expand...
Should be interesting to watch.

This is just me, but I think we are going to start seeing the earth do things we have never seen before. Whatever rules that people have for the weather are gone.
 
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