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Severe WX Severe Weather Threats 1/21-1/22 2017 (Saturday - Sunday)

Just watched WTVC live video. Severe storm threat early saturday afternoon here and clearing out before the warm front moves through with more storms. At this time SPC has southeast TN under a marginal risk but they stated higher probabilities may be issued later on.
 
Just looked at the 12z runs I think the GFS is struggling with handling some of the max vorts we see rotating. That's why the surface low jumps around a bit...which will ultimately determine the mesocale features. NAM seems to have a better handle...all in all I am noticing more agreement on the synoptic setup, but some of the low level features vary widely. However, even with the nam, I am not sure it is handling the kinematic fields correctly given the very deep stacked low. Lapse rates and shear could very well end up higher over a larger area. Low level shear is still in question at times. However, if you just look at the amount of instability (for January) and the synoptic setup, it has an ugly look especially for Miss, Ala, GA, and north FL for the weekend.
 
Euro showing a strong (40-50kt) LLJ surging northward across the southern half of MS/AL/GA and FL panhandle for early Saturday shifting east with time as we go into Sunday. Impressive. Time of day won't really matter here and instability will be high through the overnight hours.
 
Richardjacks said:
Just looked at the 12z runs I think the GFS is struggling with handling some of the max vorts we see rotating. That's why the surface low jumps around a bit...which will ultimately determine the mesocale features. NAM seems to have a better handle...all in all I am noticing more agreement on the synoptic setup, but some of the low level features vary widely. However, even with the nam, I am not sure it is handling the kinematic fields correctly given the very deep stacked low. Lapse rates and shear could very well end up higher over a larger area. Low level shear is still in question at times. However, if you just look at the amount of instability (for January) and the synoptic setup, it has an ugly look especially for Miss, Ala, GA, and north FL for the weekend.
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There isn't much the GFS handles properly.
 
NAM is absolutely nasty verbatim on the 00z....especially for Southern AL and FL Panhandle Saturday night/Sunday morning. It came in with a bit strong LLJ and the thermos are ridiculous (and likely overdone). But wow....it continues advertising the 1/2 punch early Saturday, then Saturday night/Sunday.
 
Scott said:
Is North AL out of the woods?
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Don't think so Scott. Looks as if the 00Z NAM is more volatile northward now. Just looking at a few of soundings back over North and Central MS. the lis are near -8 and the low level winds are humming from the SE
 
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Kory said:
NAM is absolutely nasty verbatim on the 00z....especially for Southern AL and FL Panhandle Saturday night/Sunday morning. It came in with a bit strong LLJ and the thermos are ridiculous (and likely overdone). But wow....it continues advertising the 1/2 punch early Saturday, then Saturday night/Sunday.
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Hows it look for north al and ga?
 
Looks to me like the 0z NAM raises concern for north Alabama Saturday evening. It has an li of -7 midgnight Sunday morning, Hel around 300 SBcape around 1,500, backing surface winds at BHM. No organized convection along the coast.
 
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