AJS
Member
It is really trying.
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Severe Weather Threat 12.26-12.29.2024
- Thread starter JBishopwx
- Start date
It is really trying.
SilentShadow87
Member
AJS
Member
S**t. Know a lot of people that reside there.
No cc drop yet, think they're okay at the moment, still would take cover though.
AJS
Member
jiharris0220
Member
Once again we are shown that global models almost always underestimate instability/warm air advection when a trough digs down this far south in the winter.
A vice versa thing happens with global models particularly underestimating southern extent of shallow arctic air masses.
A vice versa thing happens with global models particularly underestimating southern extent of shallow arctic air masses.
I think it's about to explode , it's developing a actual hook now, if it clears out a little in the inflow it'll probably take off
AJS
Member
Yeah… this does not look good.
With how things are going, I expect an upgrade to high risk at this point.
AJS
Member
That Willis storm is really tightening up.
About at the point of throwing out the hrrr model, because it's not accurately portraying the environment so we're basically running off a inaccurate information set. One is the hrrr with projected current values and the other is real time analysis of surface cape. 
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They just put a SVR on it. Wrong warning.
It's a little broad right now but it's spinning
SilentShadow87
Member
April 27, 2014. Interestingly enough the Vilonia tornado was the only tornado that touched down in the high risk area that day. It was a classic "it only takes one" event.
Kds86z
Member
I know this is a weaker tornado but…. The shape of the bottom funnel seems Indicative of a volatile environment? Am I making sense?
lake.effect
Member
Watching the cell south of The Woodlands cell as well...Houston area needs to stay on their toes. Could see training supercells.