2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Atlantic]

Actually we were in the favorable MJO phases from Beryl up until Ernesto dissipated the first time.

If we get another pulse of the MJO in late-Oct and early-Nov, then I fear we may get close using up every name we have left.

The remaining new names we haven't used are Sara (Sara replaced Sandy). We also have Valerie and William, which are OG list 4 names that have never been used before. If there is any List 4 year to use Valerie and William, it would be this year.

 

[Mike S]

la la la la la la

FWIW, the previous run had a weak storm coming ashore on the east coast of Florida. This run included a pretty strong storm south of Cuba, circling around the western tip then headed back up to the Big Bend area. Again.

La la land, right? RIGHT???

 

[SASQUATCH]

Luckily, for the northern Gulf Coast area...the Westerlies are moving South so most (if anything) that tries to come in the Gulf will probably take a sharp right turn. Not the best news for the Florida Peninsula, albeit.

 

[Mike S]

Beginning to see some consistency with the GFS in early November with a Caribbean storm entering the Gulf of Mexico. Euro shows nothing FWIW.

 

[akt1985]

Hopefully there is not a hurricane hitting America on Election Day, November 5th. That wouldn’t be good.

 

[warneagle]

Hopefully there is not a hurricane hitting America on Election Day, November 5th. That wouldn’t be good.

the conspiracy freaks would render the internet completely unusable for months

 

[Atlantic]

la la la la la la

FWIW, the previous run had a weak storm coming ashore on the east coast of Florida. This run included a pretty strong storm south of Cuba, circling around the western tip then headed back up to the Big Bend area. Again.

La la land, right? RIGHT???

View attachment 31137

If this were to pan out, that's IF, that would be Hurricane Patty hitting Florida and Tropical Storm Rafael hitting the Dominican Republic.

 

[Atlantic]

This is definitely not going to happen... right? RIGHT?

 

[Atlantic]

This is definitely not going to happen... right? RIGHT?


View attachment 31143

Forms in the eastern Caribbean, and moves Southward towards Venzsula, then back Northwards. To clarify, this is after the Late-Oct signal.

 

[Clancy]

This is definitely not going to happen... right? RIGHT?


View attachment 31143

 

[Atlantic]

View attachment 31144
Like come on, south towards Venzsula in the eastern Caribbean?

Happy GFS hour part 1 (Part 2 comes 00Z)

 

[Atlantic]

Also 12Z sends the West Caribbean signal into the Big Bend region.

It rides the entire southern coast of Cuba before going into Florida. This run is just out for everyone.

 

[tornado examiner]

And now 2024 is the second costliest tropical cyclone season on record

 

[JPWX]

Teaching moment. Plain and simple the MJO has been the driving force behind the uptick/downtick in Atlantic activity this season.

Hurricane Helene hit on September 26th. The MJO was in Phase 8.
The GFS above is showing future Hurricane Patty forming and making landfall on the coast of Cuba by November 2nd and somewhere on the Florida coast by November 6th. The latest Euro MJO forecast has us getting into Phase 8 by Day 10 (November 3rd). Milton developed in Phase 2 going into Phase 3.

Why was Gordon (Phase 5 going into 6), Nadine (Phase 5 ), Oscar (Phase 5 going into 6) able to develop in the unfavorable phases?

Because all three was small compact storms and if you notice, all three didn't last more than a week.

 

[JPWX]

And here we go

 

[JPWX]

40% odds now during next 7 days.

 

[Atlantic]

I'm sorry, what?

In the 12Z run it has the 0\40 disturbance going NE then W, than SW into the SW Caribbean, than SE towards Honduras, than NW towards the Yucatan again.

Not only that, but the run forms another storm alongside it. The GFS is going crazy with the upcoming favorable MJO phases.

 

[Atlantic]

Oh and I saw that Accuweather is expecting another 1-3 storms in November with activity possibly even going into December.

Any activity in December would be fueled in part due to the record-above average SST across the basin.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

We are about to have a storm very close to home. The GFS, EURO, and Canadian show it in the vicinity of the Yucatan channel by Wednesday/Thursday of next week.

 

[Atlantic]

We now have Invest 96L at 40.3 N, 36.2 W. If the current trends continue, we could have a subtropical storm or tropical storm in a few days.

I don't think we have seen a storm this far north since Martin in 2022. Even then, Martin formed at 35.3 N 56.7 W on this same day (Nov 1st)

The NHC says this;

North Atlantic:
A low pressure system located a few hundred miles west of the Azores
has been producing increased convection near its center over the
past few hours. Earlier satellite derived wind data depicted winds
to storm-force mainly to the south of the the center.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some additional
development and the system could become a subtropical or tropical
storm as it moves generally eastward during the next few days.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional information on this system is available in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.