2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Clancy]

Up to 90% on 94L now, looks like advisories could be issued soon as 11.

Just about the quickest I've ever seen the NHC up probs. When I woke up at 7 AM it was still at 30%.

 

[Clancy]

We now have TS Oscar, which will meander about the Antilles for several days before moving out to sea.

 

[wx_guy]

Holy crap, Oscar is almost a hurricane with winds of 70 mph as of a special 110 PM update statement!!!

 

[Clancy]

Holy crap, Oscar is almost a hurricane with winds of 70 mph as of a special 110 PM update statement!!!

The whole thing is really nuts.

000
WTNT61 KNHC 191708
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
110 PM AST Sat Oct 19 2024

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND OSCAR STRONGER...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicates that
Tropical Storm Oscar is stronger than previously estimated with
maximum sustained winds of at least 70 mph (115 km/h) with higher
gusts. The minimum central pressure measured by dropsonde
observations has also fallen to 991 mb (29.26 in).

A special advisory in lieu of the standard intermediate advisory
will be issued by 2 PM AST (18 UTC).

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

 

[wx_guy]

The whole thing is really nuts.

Indeed, the Vortex Data Message indicates a 3 nm wide eye, smaller than Milton's and almost as small as Wilma's!

 

[Clancy]

Oscar putting out nearly continuous bursts of robust convection.

 

[wx_guy]

I'm betting on the next recon pass in a bit, it'll solidly be a hurricane.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[notsoencrypted]

This thing just really took off. Wow.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[slenker]

View attachment 31069

It's so tiny and it's absolutely exploding. This hurricane season has been so unbelievably strange.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JBishopwx]

Oscar being a little grouchy today...

 

[JPWX]

Oscar reminds me of Otis in the Eastern Pacific in 2023. These small storms can catch the models and forecasters offguard.

 

[JPWX]

Oscar being a little grouchy today...

Be like: "I'll show y'all what a tin trash can can do!"

 

[Blountwolf]

Well that escalated quickly.

 

[JPWX]

Oscar has had a 40mph wind increase in 3 hours.

 

[tornadowatch211]

Hurricane Oscar right now:

Its insane that theres only like 2 pixels of an eye.

 

[slenker]

Hurricane Oscar right now:
View attachment 31072
Its insane that theres only like 2 pixels of an eye.

I just can't get over how tiny it is. It's similar to Cyclone Tracy from '74. Just unbelievably compact and bombing out so fast. If it continues to intensify at the extreme pace it is, a good analog might be the 1935 Labor Day hurricane (not saying it will be anywhere close to that though)

 

[tornadowatch211]

I just can't get over how tiny it is. It's similar to Cyclone Tracy from '74. Just unbelievably compact and bombing out so fast. If it continues to intensify at the extreme pace it is, a good analog might be the 1935 Labor Day hurricane (not saying it will be anywhere close to that though)

Its only like 200 miles in diameter btw. Crazy stuff.