I forgot about October… oops.
I guess another question is how similar conditions between this year and 2021 (besides the temp) are? Might be too early
I believe Mayfield was December 2021
Correct. December 10, 2021.
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Severe Weather 2023
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Correct. December 10, 2021.
How longs it been since a prolific fall season tornado event has hit Alabama. Seems like it's been a while. Only legit one I can think of on the top of my head is veterans Day 2002.
Btw I don't consider November 2022 event a prolific Alabama event
Btw I don't consider November 2022 event a prolific Alabama event
That is a good quesiton and now I am starting to wonder myself.
According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Alabama_tornado_events
The following 3 most recent (out of 6) November outbreaks produced tornadoes in Alabama:
-Nov 2006
-Nov 2005
-Nov 2002 (the one you mentioned)
Soooo it’s been 17 years this November
Nothing listed for October.
For December: 2012 (storm complex), and 2000.
The 2002 November veterans day event was a very remarkable event, I remember spann saying it was a analog that kept popping up days prior to April 27th 2011.
Usually October and November are extremely slow in Alabama and ramp up in December and January. I remember that 2012 December one pretty well
Those October tornadoes must not have been part of an outbreak. I will have to look them up.
I didn't realize the 11/29 event had 10 tornadoes in Alabama lol. Man that's so close to winter idk if I can count that one as a prolific fall one. https://www.weather.gov/bmx/event_11302022
How would you define prolific (for November)?
20 or 30 tornado reports
Austin Dawg
Member
With the heat this summer being over a larger area and more intense than average, I don't think we had any significant Lows (storms) or fronts going across the South or Gulf Storms (except one hurricane) to change the temps of the Gulf waters. We acted like a big, hot shield that kept the Gulf from getting any changes or cooling to that hot, humid air.
Because of this, I think you guys are correct. We have a good probability that we may not only have more severe weather events, I think we will have a chance of experiencing the level, of another Mayfield type of event. I am really worried that we may have multiple events of that severity.
Please do keep in mind that it all depends on whether the other ingredients needed for severe weather outbreaks can also come together in the right amounts at the right time. But if/when that does look likely, then PLEASE be prepared to head to the safest place you can!
tennessee storm chaser
Member
I pay attention from early November to end December …. With a strong nino, moisture return shouldn’t be no problem and they usually produce an amped up jet stream .
2015 was our last big El Nino. I'll have to look back when I get home and see just how active that Fall was. Monroe County MS had severe flooding Christmas Day. I'll never forget that. I personally recorded 8.75 inches in 24 hours. To this day, that's the highest amount I've recorded in 24 hours and the highest amount I've measured.
It's got some rotation on it, as supercells do but nothing that screams "imminently tornadic" at least to me. Of course, I'd still be on my heels by the off chance the cell decides to go rogue and drop a biggun.
That part.