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Severe Weather 2023

KevinH

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I think we are getting a little ahead of ourselves with severe weather still in voodoo land. But that 192 hour time frame is eye popping.little yes, but still something worth mentioning
Well I am not saying anything is going to come of it. Right now it’s just something to watch… think of my comment as a “Severe Invest” hahahhahahaha

If the models come into better agreement in coming days, and/or the SPC starts highlighting days for next week, then I suspect someone will create a thread.

SIDE NOTE: still not sure why the link to the Twitter post is not working here (yes I still call it Twitter).
 

JPWX

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From the CPC: "With mean mid-level troughing favored across the western CONUS, there is good model agreement featuring shortwave energy ejecting from the Rockies and surface low formation across the Great Plains. Based on the Weather Prediction Center's (WPC) day 6 and day 7 QPF, increased amounts of precipitation are favored late in week-1 across the country's mid-section, and appear likely to linger into early week-2. The synoptic pattern favored appears conducive for an increased risk of heavy precipitation with thunderstorm activity remaining possible given warm, moist Gulf of Mexico return flow favored over portions of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. A slight risk of heavy precipitation remains issued (Sep 23-24), and is expanded eastward in the parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys where there is increased support in the Probabilistic Extreme Tools (PETs) for 3-day amounts exceeding the 85th percentile and 1 inch."
 

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JBishopwx

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DANGIT!! Maybe I posted the link wrong.. I am trying to get the preview to show up like in @JBishopwx’s comment.

The post is still there but for some reason, the link is not working?

@JBishopwx, how exactly did you link the post from Twitter earlier in this thread?
 

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JBishopwx

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JPWX

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James, I don't recall any big tornado or severe weather events in September for our area. From the NWS Memphis Tornado Database, there's been only 11 instances of tornadoes across North MS with the strongest being F3/EF3 which occurred on September 29th, 1972. The other years besides 1972 in which a tornado occurred for North MS in September are: 1958, 1965, 1981, 1982, 1996, 2001, and 2008. Out of those years, only 1982, 1996, and 2008 had more than 2 tornadoes to occur in September. 1958 Atlantic Hurricane Season (Strong El Nino) had 3 category 4's (Total ACE: 182), 1965 Atlantic Season (Strong El Nino) had 1 category 4 (Total ACE: 88), 1972 Atlantic Season (Strong El Nino) had no major hurricanes, 1981 Atlantic Season (Neutral ENSO) had 1 category and 2 category 3's (Total ACE: 100), 1982 Atlantic Season (Neutral ENSO) had 1 category 4 (Total ACE: 32), 1996 Atlantic Season (Neutral ENSO) had 2 category 4's and 4 category 3's (Total ACE: 166), and 2001 Atlantic Season (Weak La Nina) had 2 category 3's and 2 category 4's (Total ACE: 110), and 2008 Atlantic Season (Weak La Nina) had 1 category 3 and 4 category 4's (Total ACE: 146).

Will be very interesting to see if we get our first notable Fall outbreak in September which looking back for North MS would be a first.
 

KevinH

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James, I don't recall any big tornado or severe weather events in September for our area. From the NWS Memphis Tornado Database, there's been only 11 instances of tornadoes across North MS with the strongest being F3/EF3 which occurred on September 29th, 1972. The other years besides 1972 in which a tornado occurred for North MS in September are: 1958, 1965, 1981, 1982, 1996, 2001, and 2008. Out of those years, only 1982, 1996, and 2008 had more than 2 tornadoes to occur in September. 1958 Atlantic Hurricane Season (Strong El Nino) had 3 category 4's (Total ACE: 182), 1965 Atlantic Season (Strong El Nino) had 1 category 4 (Total ACE: 88), 1972 Atlantic Season (Strong El Nino) had no major hurricanes, 1981 Atlantic Season (Neutral ENSO) had 1 category and 2 category 3's (Total ACE: 100), 1982 Atlantic Season (Neutral ENSO) had 1 category 4 (Total ACE: 32), 1996 Atlantic Season (Neutral ENSO) had 2 category 4's and 4 category 3's (Total ACE: 166), and 2001 Atlantic Season (Weak La Nina) had 2 category 3's and 2 category 4's (Total ACE: 110), and 2008 Atlantic Season (Weak La Nina) had 1 category 3 and 4 category 4's (Total ACE: 146).

Will be very interesting to see if we get our first notable Fall outbreak in September which looking back for North MS would be a first.
Dixie Alley said: “eff your Calendar” and does what it wants these days *sigh*
 
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