Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - December 8th-10th, 2023

[MichelleH]

I swear it’s ALWAYS MS/AL

smh

Um, how do you think we feel?

 

[KevinH]

Um, how do you think we feel?

VERY fair thing to say lol

It’s that damn Gulf of Mexico moisture. SMH

 

[JPWX]

Well @KevinH I called it so.....

 

[KevinH]

Well @KevinH I called it so.....

 

[JPWX]

18z GFS CWASP

 

[CheeselandSkies]

0Z is in...a good bit slower with the system (18Z was likewise slower than 12Z, this is slower still) and with quite a bit juicier air streaming north to central IL/IN. Still quite paltry to non-existent CAPE depicted up there but where have we seen this story before...

 

[MoonBaby]

I logged in just to say it feels like it is *always* in west Alabama. I don’t have anything worth saying so I just lurk normally. Stay safe fellow Alabama people (and everyone obviously)

 

[KevinH]

18z GFS CWASP

Interested in seeing the frames after this

 

[LintLicker919]

I logged in just to say it feels like it is *always* in west Alabama. I don’t have anything worth saying so I just lurk normally. Stay safe fellow Alabama people (and everyone obviously)

As a lifelong resident of east central Alabama, more central than east, I feel this lol. We can use the Storm radar app and watch a severe storm just part like the Red Sea or completely dissipate as it approaches Pell City/Lake Logan Martin where we live. Sometimes I feel like we live under a dome!

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

View attachment 22287View attachment 22288

That's relatively large,

I think this one will produce.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

This system has legs ….. also appears be slowing up some on latest models. 0z suits…. Looks be a pretty nice warm sector going form out ahead of it

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Just based off the latest euro along , veering off the winds is a concern for sure . And slower solution. Trend continues you see spc expand the risk zone more north…. Man the winds are really backed on models …. Think we are definitely heading something towards a higher risk outlook moving forward

 

[JBishopwx]

Just a note... you may see radar sites down occasionally this week in the threat area. Right now, it is just for routine quick maintenance, besides for KLIX and KBMX. I fully expect BMX to be finished by the weekend.

 

[Clancy]

Just a note... you may see radar sites down occasionally this week in the threat area. Right now, it is just for routine quick maintenance, besides for KLIX and KBMX. I fully expect BMX to be finished by the weekend.

This brief says it'll be back up by Dec. 11 but hopefully it'll be a bit sooner.

BMXSLEP23

 

[JBishopwx]

This brief says it'll be back up by Dec. 11 but hopefully it'll be a bit sooner.

BMXSLEP23

Yeah, I know when they did Columbus AFB it was done a few days early.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Newest GFS Run is a bit more stout on instability. Still prime heating for Mississippi into West Alabama, of course moving forward into mesoscale models a uptick in instability usually occurs.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

https://x.com/ConvChronicles/status/1732085983619973154?s=20

 

[Taylor Campbell]

This is reminding me in some ways of the Jan 12th, 2023 event. Colder mid level temps and presence of a cap wouldn’t hurt.

 

[JPWX]

In reading afternoon discussion from MEG, they don't seem impressed. However, that's nothing new with them.