Justin Hindman Hindy
Member
Gonna be a rain wrapped isolated tornado kind of day.
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Definitely concur on geographical distribution. Wind fields get pretty bleh as you go north, regardless of moisture quality. Kind of surprised by the inland extent of instability being modelled right now, though.Looking at the data from last night/this morning, I feel like the tornado threat will be mostly confined to within 100 miles from the coast, mainly beginning around Mobile and further east. The other areas are probably more likely to get damaging hail.
Here's the 0z NAM and 20z on Saturday at Eglin AFB in the FL Panhandle:
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The same sounding, but 4 degrees warmer on Temp and Dewpoint:
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Both soundings have very curved low-level hodographs, high-ish CAPE for the area, and pretty high Eff Shear. Definitely worth watching.
Yeah, the 12z NAM 3k is just coming in on Pivotal Weather, and it's showing some unexpectedly high CAPE inland. If the hodographs can fix themselves, central AL and GA may be in the firezone too.Definitely concur on geographical distribution. Wind fields get pretty bleh as you go north, regardless of moisture quality. Kind of surprised by the inland extent of instability being modelled right now, though.
Moderate risk for RAINFALL right? RIGHT?! LOLI could see where the Moderate Risk gets expanded back westward some.
Yes Kevin. You can relaxModerate risk for RAINFALL right? RIGHT?!
HahahahhaaYes Kevin. You can relax
Me neither. I could see a Enhanced Risk at best but that would be highly dependent upon mesoscale factors.Hahahahhaa
I haven’t seen anything to warrant a MOD tor risk for tomorrow yet. Not even close.
Yep! That is about where I am too. At least for LA/MS and MAYBE parts of AL. We will see how things evolve.Me neither. I could see a Enhanced Risk at best but that would be highly dependent upon mesoscale factors.
NAM came in less aggressive than its 18Z run (due to more comprehensive depiction of the morning MCS), but still is more keen on the North-Central GA corridor than the HRRR. Wind fields seem to have become a little better this run as well (sounding from Paulding Co., GA). Still skeptical anything actually develops here, but if it did then it could be troublesome. SREF sniffs some geographically-confined risk for tornadoes near the ATL metro, but seems like a low-confidence scenario. Either way, rain will be tremendous across parts of AL/GA so folks should really watch out for that. Watch your roofs and garage doors for leaks everyone!Here's the 0z HRRR at 11 AM EST on Saturday. A corridor from Dothan to Macon to Valdosta to Tallahassee shows very conducive soundings for severe weather, with 2k-3k+ CAPE. Curious. Let's see what the other CAMs show.
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