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The GFS, EURO, and Canadian overlap a strong low-level jet and instability across southeast Louisiana, south MS, and south Alabama on Friday.
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Severe Weather Threat 3/7-3/9/2024
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
KevinH
Member
Someone already posted this on the 2024th thread, but I wanted to post it here as well.
Something to watch and I would not be surprised if the SPC highlights in area tomorrow.
Something to watch and I would not be surprised if the SPC highlights in area tomorrow.
Clancy
Member
GEFS has been pretty consistent in depicting some SCP probs during the period over the SE. Moisture seems decent, though there's still plenty of questions to me about junk convection (and my trust with the globals is still recovering).
JPWX
Member
Watch this turn into a heavy rain/flash flood event. LOL! Regardless, it's something to watch.
KevinH
Member
JPWX
Member
The warm sector is incredibly moist this go around.
Looking at potentially widespread low 70s dewpoint in early march lul.
Looking at potentially widespread low 70s dewpoint in early march lul.
KevinH
Member
Can’t be a good thing around here….
Trough goes a bit negative tilt and then pretty zonal in the aforementioned low 70 dew area. Zonal flow can still bring a decent severe threat so I don't think it's a super big issue. Junk convection and coastal convection looks like the biggest hiccup so far.
A lot of severe weather outbreaks in the south can be from zonal flow. Biggest one that comes to mind for me is Easter 2020. Just depends on how everything sets up.
A lot of severe weather outbreaks in the south can be from zonal flow. Biggest one that comes to mind for me is Easter 2020. Just depends on how everything sets up.
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Just a bit of weather maps, kinda look similar to this event. This is 250mb and 500mb from Easter 2020. disclaimer though, not saying this will be like that event*** 
Then this is forecast 250 mb and 500mb for Friday.
Link to the Alabama NWS overview with more maps and stuff
Then this is forecast 250 mb and 500mb for Friday.
Link to the Alabama NWS overview with more maps and stuff
KevinH
Member
Wake me up around Wed/Thu… too much flip flopping can happen between now and then.
lol
*turns on email notifications anyway*
Don't think there will be as much changing. As it has been the last few weeks. Getting under 120 hours which is decent for consistency. Think your looking at a severe weather risk somewhere, magnitude is what we don't knowWake me up around Wed/Thu… too much flip flopping can happen between now and then.
lol
*turns on email notifications anyway*
KevinH
Member
Yes, agreed. My previous comment was in reference to magnitude.. and now that I think about it, location as well lol
Stupid fickle Dixie Alley ha
Clancy
Member
A couple of our summer 2023 events were from persistent zonal flow, iirc.
tennessee storm chaser
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SPC has put out a 5. And a 6 day risk out southern Ms and southern Alabama , kind suprised
KevinH
Member
Why surprised?
tennessee storm chaser
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Sort worried bout some junk convection along gulf robbing best moisture return and hurting instability .
KevinH
Member
Oh ok.
