Severe Weather Threat 3/7-3/9/2024

[JPWX]

Nope… lol

That number 5 is right over me too *sigh*

 

[KevinH]

That can’t be me unfortunately..

I moved into a place on the first floor (think tornado safety lol) a few years ago….

 

[Clancy]

Some CAMs, especially the NAM, did the day-before slump with early morning convection really taming things on the NAM 3km and WRFs for the northern extent of the threat, going more in-line with the HRRR. Could definitely still cause issues along the Gulf Coast into Middle Georgia, though. NCAR CAM ML products, which generally seem to perform well, depicting greatest threat south of I-20.
Note: I fully expect some of the CAMs, prolly the HRRR, to do the night-before shuffle, but I'd bet the current depiction will end up being correct.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[KevinH]

Some CAMs, especially the NAM, did the day-before slump with early morning convection really taming things on the NAM 3km and WRFs for the northern extent of the threat, going more in-line with the HRRR. Could definitely still cause issues along the Gulf Coast into Middle Georgia, though. NCAR CAM ML products, which generally seem to perform well, depicting greatest threat south of I-20.
Note: I fully expect some of the CAMs, prolly the HRRR, to do the night-before shuffle, but I'd bet the current depiction will end up being correct.
View attachment 24148View attachment 24149

What is the time range of the UH tracks you posted? The more prominent track(s) going through central GA passes eerily close to me.

 

[Clancy]

What is the time range of the UH tracks you posted? The more prominent track(s) going through central GA passes eerily close to me.

The streaks near you come through late tonight with the late-night/morning convection, around midnight I think.

 

[KevinH]

The streaks near you come through late tonight with the late-night/morning convection, around midnight I think.

Great… SMH

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[Clancy]

Breakdown by Trey.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I haven't had time to watch Trey's video or look at much data yet (I'm at work), but just glancing at the radar composite it looks like the ongoing convection is decently far north across MS/AL...should be some room for later activity to work with across at least the southern 1/3 of those states.

Could be another rough day for the Pine Belt if the HRRR is right...remember the February 2013 Hattiesburg EF4? Pretty sure the Hattiesburg-Petal-Laurel area has gotten at least one other significant tornado since then, too.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That's a big bump

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[wx_guy]

That's a big bump

Yeah, the NAM and HRRR show the south MS area as a potential hotspot today, too.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Nadocast likes the Hattiesburg area as well

 

[Clancy]

D2 Slight Risk reduced southeastward.

 

[KevinH]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Wowza

 

[andyhb]

Definitely a supercell SE of Lafayette rn. Will see if it can hold together as it moves E/ENE.

 

[OHWX97]

I long for the day KHDC is fully operational.

 

[wx_guy]