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Winter Weather/Extreme Cold Threat 1/13-1/17

UncleJuJu98 said:
What's the freezing rain criteria for a winter storm warning? Aren't we getting close to that for blount county and the next row down from the current winter storm warning counties.
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Here you go…Winter Storm Warning criteria for B’ham:

Snowfall of 2" or greater. Freezing rain/drizzle (ice) accumulations greater than or equal to 1/4". Sleet (ice pellets) accumulations 1/2" or greater.
 
HRRR still saying expect a nasty ice storm.
1705337673205.png
 
BamaSpaceBalloon said:
Yeah - gets harder and harder as we get into February for any part of Alabama to get snow.
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Well not necessarily...it is ALWAYS hard to get snows in Alabama, it all comes down to getting the proper timing/placement with systems. I would say we really have just as much opportunity with a given system in Feb as we do any other time really. I'm going to hold out hope myself.
 
Code: 
   Mesoscale Discussion 0068
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1117 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024

   Areas affected...Louisiana into Mississippi and northern Alabama

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

   Valid 151717Z - 152115Z

   SUMMARY...A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected
   to spread east from southeast Arkansas and northern Louisiana into
   Mississippi and northern Alabama through early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Surface observations, LSRs, and MPING reports over the
   past 1-2 hours continue to show a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing
   rain from the ArkLaTex region into northern MS/AL within a broad
   precipitation swath. Isentropic ascent over a 925-850 mb frontal
   zone is forecast to persist through early afternoon as a
   low-amplitude wave, currently over the southern Plains, migrates
   east. Recent sleet LSRs and forecast soundings suggest that a mix of
   snow and sleet will be more likely where surface temperatures are in
   the low 20s or lower. Areas where temperatures are in the mid-20s or
   higher should have too shallow/warm of a sub-freezing layer to
   support much re-freezing of hydrometeors, making a sleet/freezing
   rain mix more probable. Forecast guidance suggests that
   precipitation intensity may gradually wane heading into the
   mid-afternoon hours, but a zone of impactful wintry precipitation
   appears probable prior to this occurring.
 
So far it has seemed like the system mostly wants to put down sleet - the surface freezing layer being deep enough to freeze the rain into ice prior to it hitting the ground. I hope that remains the case as it moves south. At least that's been my impression - has there been anywhere that has gotten a lot of icing with this system north of here, or has it been snow and sleet mostly? In general, this system hasn't had much of a warm side as far as the precipitation goes - it's struggled to put down anything anywhere the surface temp is 30 or better.
 
A handy graphic for those of you explaining to friends and family what may occur:

1705340110668.png
 
Would be nice if we had thundersleet or thundersnow. Would make this all even more worthwhile.
 
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