Winter Threat January 18-24 do ya wanna build a snowman??

[Richardjacks]

I see. When do you think this will show ?

There may be some signs late Monday night if the snow is breaking out earlier than expected

 

[Ars4ua]

Thank ya’ll so much for the info !

 

[brianc33710]

Based on updates to Tuesday forecasts, I believe BMX will drop some counties from the WSWatch. Hale & Chilton might get a WWA, which I guess is still an upgrade from the watch. But they definitely won't go under a warning unless the pattern changes.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

14 degrees here in remlap alabama

 

[Geno]

22 in Tuscaloosa

 

[Pluviophile]

12° F here in Madison/Harvest.

 

[Kim30]

10°F here in Ardmore, AL

 

[MichelleH]

It was 10 in Cullman when I got up about an hour ago, but now we're up to a balmy 12.

 

[Geno]

It did get down to 19 in Tuscaloosa and now up to 20.

 

[bamabelle]

17 in Jasper.

 

[cyelle21]

So, BMX is forecasting less than half an inch where I live...we are under a Winter Weather Warning...I realize it won't take much to make the roads slick. So, the Hrw Fv3 looks better than alot of other models as far as northward extent of precip..

 

[Richardjacks]

i keep looking at that vort max that digs in just before the high...its brief, but I am not sure the models have enough precip on the north side

 

[wx_guy]

Hey @Richardjacks (or other mets in the thread), does the NAM have a warm bias at all? It's showing a significant freezing rain event for the Big Bend, but that isn't necessarily on the other models to that magnitude.

 

[Richardjacks]

Hey @Richardjacks (or other mets in the thread), does the NAM have a warm bias at all? It's showing a significant freezing rain event for the Big Bend, but that isn't necessarily on the other models to that magnitude.

It can have a warm bias, but it really varies...the last event it did not pick up the dynmic cooling, so it was too warm

 

[wx_guy]

Yeah, if the NAM freezing rain scenario comes anywhere close to verifying, Tallahassee and the surrounding Big Bend (and up through Valdosta in S GA) will be f'd. That's a highly tree-dense area (including inside the "canopy city" Tallahassee itself). There'd be significant power outages at a really bad time due to the cold. Hopefully that doesn't verify.

For reference, the NAM FRAM and QPF:

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Have they issued a winter weather advisory for i20 yet? I'm kinda expecting them too

 

[TVILLE96]

Have they issued a winter weather advisory for i20 yet? I'm kinda expecting them too

Do you see I-20 having potential travel issues ?

 

[Blountwolf]

Those of you in N/Cen AL, keep an eye on Dallas and Southern AR today. There's where you'll see signs of the moisture streaming further north than expected if there's going to be any. I note with interest the visible satellite of SE TX this morning.

 

[Blountwolf]

Do you see I-20 having potential travel issues ?

The problem with systems like this is that the slightest amounts of precip can cause issues, because anything that falls, sticks, and with it so cold the snow ratio (amount of liquid to make x inches of snow) is really high. Just a little bit of moisture can cause real headaches. I'd probably pull the trigger on a WWA if it was my call, just to be on the safe side, because it wouldn't take being off by much to make a mess.

 

[Flurry]

Those of you in N/Cen AL, keep an eye on Dallas and Southern AR today. There's where you'll see signs of the moisture streaming further north than expected if there's going to be any. I note with interest the visible satellite of SE TX this morning.

Dallas Winter weather is sometimes a good pre-cursor of things to come in N. Central AL…Not always, but many times has been and can be