Winter Threat January 18-24 do ya wanna build a snowman??

Fair word of warning on the Canadian, it usually way overdoes snow/precip totals as well as being too cold. It's worth watching for the pattern/overall storm setup, but take what its snow maps with a grain of salt.
 
Thanksgivingbrown said:
The Canadian is a bombshell
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The model has been outrageous for several runs. That looks like a copy and paste of the 12z run lol.

This could be a very wet system. Just have to bring it inland into the cold air instead of the Gulf.
 
Jacob said:
Fair word of warning on the Canadian, it usually way overdoes snow/precip totals as well as being too cold. It's worth watching for the pattern/overall storm setup, but take what its snow maps with a grain of salt.
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From what I understand (which is not much) temps won't be an issue in central AL, just nice to see the precip coinciding
 
PopPop said:
From what I understand (which is not much) temps won't be an issue in central AL, just nice to see the precip coinciding
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Yeah they shouldn't be for central/north AL, just a matter of if there's any precipitation.

The Canadian has Birmingham going below 25 degrees on Sunday night and not rising above it until Saturday. I guess with those insane snow totals it's possible, but living out in Utah I've noticed how frequently it over forecasts the cold and snow. The levels of cold with it are also why those Kuchera maps are inflated so much over the 10:1 maps
 
It's going to be cold next week, but at least some people will see some snow. Here is the latest long term forecast discussion from BMX.

A significant upper-level trough is progged to overtake much of the
CONUS this weekend, and this will coincide with an arctic airmass
overspreading a broad region from the Plains through Mississippi
Valley and Southeast throughout the day on Sunday. The arrival of
the arctic cold front will bring significant cold advection Sunday
night with a drastic decline in temperatures and dewpoints. This
cold regime will stick around for much of the forecast period, but
will introduce dangerous wind chill values beginning Sunday night
into Monday morning. Temperatures in the 10s & 20s will combine with
northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph, gusting as high as 20 mph at times.
Wind chill values Monday morning are currently forecast to be 10
degrees or less, with values below 0 at times north of I-20/I-22.
This high confidence threat will carry the need for cold weather
headlines, when the time comes. It`s slam-dunk criteria for a Cold
Weather Advisory, but there`s low to medium potential (30-60%) that
we`ll need an Extreme Cold Warning for the BHM Metro area per latest
LREF probability of wind chill values 5 degrees or less. This
warning probability is a bit lower for the northern half of Central
Alabama due to a transition area in product criteria (0 degrees or
less for northern/northeastern zones). Either way, impacts remain
the same; this is dangerous cold which poses a threat to
outdoor/exposed water pipes, animals, and anyone outside without
sufficient clothing or regular access to warm shelter. To make
matters worse, there`s little relief expected during the daytime
hours Monday, and this cycle extends into Tuesday and Wednesday.
This will be a prolonged cold snap threatening life and property
(especially water systems) across Central Alabama. Make your
preparations now.

While there`s high confidence in cold weather across the area mid
next week, confidence in wintry precipitation remains fairly steady
in the low-medium range for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Guidance is
beginning to show better agreement tonight, and at this time, best
confidence in accumulating snow is for areas generally along and
south of I-20. Latest NBM probabilities for snowfall accumulations
at or above 0.25" (Winter Wx Advisory criteria) is 20-40%, with
highest probabilities along and south of I-85. (Yes, you read that
correctly.) While an argument can be made that all of Central
Alabama should be on watch for winter weather on Tuesday, highest
confidence exists south where best access to moisture exists on the
north side of the progged Gulf low. This low pressure system has
trended farther south into the central Gulf on latest global model
solutions, hence the shift south with snow probabilities. The GDPS
remains the most bullish, but both the GFS and ECMWF agree that at
least a weak low pressure system will progress across the Gulf with
moisture overrunning a cold airmass. However, this threat needs to
be monitored, and expect forecast changes in the coming days. The
notion of the low being that far south seems somewhat unusual to me,
and the disturbance/dynamics aloft responsible for this potential
winter wx threat is still situated in the northeast Pacific.
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BamaWX said:
It's going to be cold next week, but at least some people will see some snow. Here is the latest long term forecast discussion from BMX.
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Its mentioned in that forecast that he find it's unusual that the low is situated so far south.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Its mentioned in that forecast that he find it's unusual that the low is situated so far south.
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Yes he's right. But i have seen it before..unusual, but not impossible. But as we have learned before, the northern edge of the precip shield may not be progged correctly.
 
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Richardjacks said:
Yes he's right. But i have seen it before..unusual, but not impossible. But as we have learned before, the northern edge of the precip shield may not be progged correctly.
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What drives the northern extent of precipitation in a situation like this?

Would assume it has to do with how amplified the system is?
 
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With it being pretty rare for Lows to get that far down in the Gulf this time of year, odds are pretty good this will probably come North a little
 
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