Winter Threat January 18-24 do ya wanna build a snowman??

I wouldn't call this a suppressed 12z GFS snow total. In fact, all 12z operational runs today are showing a good snow storm except 12z Euro came in less with the totals.
 

Attachments

  • gfs-deterministic-alms-total_snow_10to1-7914400.png
    gfs-deterministic-alms-total_snow_10to1-7914400.png
    143 KB · Views: 0
  • gem-all-alms-total_snow_10to1-7806400.png
    gem-all-alms-total_snow_10to1-7806400.png
    138.7 KB · Views: 0
  • ecmwf-deterministic-alms-total_snow_10to1-7828000.png
    ecmwf-deterministic-alms-total_snow_10to1-7828000.png
    142.2 KB · Views: 0
JPWX said:
I wouldn't call this a suppressed 12z GFS snow total. In fact, all 12z operational runs today are showing a good snow storm except 12z Euro came in less with the totals.
Click to expand...
Maybe suppressed is the wrong term but the gfs seems to bring the system I. A day or two later.
 
aujerm said:
Maybe suppressed is the wrong term but the gfs seems to bring the system I. A day or two later.
Click to expand...
Usually big snow events in the south happen by way of pattern changers....big storms that result in a shift in the upper air flow. Gfs suggests that would be the late week one. I have a sneaky feeling that there will be arctic boundary nearby and until the pattern changer comes, there may be another risk of wintry weather as energy throws moisture over the boundary.
 
My son and I are thinking of escaping the coming winter blitzkrieg - especially if there's a high likelihood the power goes out - because I would like to be able to feel my hands (and possibly feet) those days. (Not joking, I have Raynaud's, among multiple other things.) What part of Alabama or Tennessee is the least likely (as of now) to be affected by winter precipitation, if there is any? Thank you.
 
MichelleH said:
My son and I are thinking of escaping the coming winter blitzkrieg - especially if there's a high likelihood the power goes out - because I would like to be able to feel my hands (and possibly feet) those days. (Not joking, I have Raynaud's, among multiple other things.) What part of Alabama or Tennessee is the least likely (as of now) to be affected by winter precipitation, if there is any? Thank you.
Click to expand...

It's too far out to really be able to narrow it down for you. The shortwave/piece of energy that the models are all handling quite differently at the moment is still in the northern Pacific, SW of the Aleutian Islands. There's enough cold air involved that it'll be snow/sleet/ice for a large area if the shortwave materializes and doesn't get suppressed like the GFS is doing.

If the shortwave really digs more like the Canadian is showing, your best bet is probably the coast. If we get a solution more like the ECMWF/UKMET/ICON, probably go further north into Tennessee to avoid winter weather. If the GFS solution occurs, it'll just be a cold few days.

One thing to keep in mind depending on the solution is travel in/around Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Not even taking into account the Canadian's armageddon storm, travel is going to be very difficult if a storm materializes because we are talking snow falling with temperatures in the low-mid 20s across a large area. Roads would be impassible for large stretches for days, etc. even with just a couple inches with those kinds of ground temperatures (i.e Jan 2014)
 
I'm wondering if we are gunna see some snow showers Sunday evening in central Alabama.

Models do show a little moisture behind the low pressure.
 
Last edited:
One thing I'll say about the 12z GFS and 12z Canadian today (as well as the 12z Euro the other day) concerning the high end snow totals. Don't disregard either one. The pattern we're in can certainly produce that type of snow and totals. Again, the cold air will already be there just like with this last event, but colder. We know how the operational models will waver, but that's to be expected at this range. Another aspect is while the models are seeing the severe cold, just how cold is the biggest question. I would expect highs and lows both for next week to trend down as we get closer in.
 
18z GFS wants to drop a decent amount of ice Atlanta and northeast.
1736996933541.png
 
MichelleH said:
My son and I are thinking of escaping the coming winter blitzkrieg - especially if there's a high likelihood the power goes out - because I would like to be able to feel my hands (and possibly feet) those days. (Not joking, I have Raynaud's, among multiple other things.) What part of Alabama or Tennessee is the least likely (as of now) to be affected by winter precipitation, if there is any? Thank you.
Click to expand...
Miami is always a good bet but watch out for falling iguanas. On a serious note, watch where the freezing line is on sunday or so and get below it (looking like Orlando or south for now). Anywhere north you go will still be in the deep freeze.
 
This is BMX forecast from the Selma area...I'm surprised they already dropped the "snow" word considering models are all over the place.
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot_20250116_070513_NOAA Weather.jpg
    Screenshot_20250116_070513_NOAA Weather.jpg
    1.2 MB · Views: 0
Geno said:
Miami is always a good bet but watch out for falling iguanas. On a serious note, watch where the freezing line is on sunday or so and get below it (looking like Orlando or south for now). Anywhere north you go will still be in the deep freeze.
Click to expand...

We talked last night and decided we may as well just stay here. We're leery of leaving the house empty during an extreme winter weather event. Just praying the power doesn't go out.
 
Looking at latest 00z Canadian and yesterday's impressive snow total off the 12z Canadian got me to thinking about this.

January's highest 24 hour snow total and month snow total:

Lee County, MS (Tupelo):

1. 1940: 8 inches in 24 hours with 9.2 inch total for month.
2. 1936: 7 inches in 24 hours with 8.4 inch total for month.
3. 2011: 6.2 inches in 24 hours with 6.8 inch total for month.
4. 1988: 5.2 inches in 24 hours with 7.2 inch total for month.
5. 1935: 4 inches in 24 hours with 7.5 inch total for month.

Monroe County, MS (Aberdeen):
1. 1936: 9 inches in 24 hours with 11.1 inch total for month.
2. 1964: 8 inches in 24 hours with 8 inch total for month.
3. 1940: 5 inches in 24 hours with 8.3 inch total for month.
4. 1982: 4 inches in 24 hours with 6.5 inch total for month.
5. 1985: 4 inches in 24 hours with 7 inch total for month.
 
Going by the frequency of posts on this I get the feeling the smart folks are not too fired up about it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top