Winter Threat January 18-24 do ya wanna build a snowman??

David in SW Blount said:
This makes me curious about how many winter seasons in the Birmingham region have seen two or more significant winter storms. The only one I personally recall is 2014, when we had Snowmageddon in January and a snowfall in February.

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But then I see on the NWS Birmingham site that we had two in 2011. Forgot about that and only remembered the January event (mostly sleet at my place):

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I thought 2011 had 4 snows.
 
Thanksgivingbrown said:
There’s too much model inconsistency at the moment
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Exactly...which models usually do well at this point? The GFS is the only one that isn't showing some type of precipitation in the Tuesday - Thursday time frame. During the last storm, the GFS was fairly consistent while the other models were not showing anything. I really hope it is the complete opposite this time.
 
Let me just say next week is "filled with fraught". While there is a chance the pattern bears nothing, there is a chance that a threat will show up with fairly short notice. I have seen this before. It all comes down to timing of lobes of enery and where it swings/phases with the very large impressive trough. Small changes in timing could have large conesquences on nothing or major storm.
 
cyelle21 said:
Exactly...which models usually do well at this point? The GFS is the only one that isn't showing some type of precipitation in the Tuesday - Thursday time frame. During the last storm, the GFS was fairly consistent while the other models were not showing anything. I really hope it is the complete opposite this time.
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The euro did tick north with the system. (Hope it continues to trend that way). Hard to believe the gulf coast will get a snowstorm but I guess it’s a possibility.
 
stallions3peat said:
I have a question for the meteorologist here. Say for instance you are few days out from an event and the models are not in agreement, how is that dealt with and forecast to the public?
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You basically have to do a compromise and, based on analog data/past events, you make the best decision. Sometimes the analog data/past events gives you the upper hand over the forecast models. Meaning, in some sense, you ignore the forecast models if they don't show any snow or winter storm because you have a pattern that says yes, we should have winter weather issues. That, of course, depends on the situation. Like if we had no cold air around like we will next week before the systems, then we would have the typical cold air chasing the storm system. In that case, you would just say a few wrap around isolated snow showers are possible behind the system as it exits. No accumulations expected, etc. However, in next week's case, you do have the cold air in place and a pattern that is very similar that produced the more recent event. The biggest difference is you'll have very cold air infiltrating next week so again depending on storm system or systems track, your bulk precip would be all snow pretty much.
 
JPWX said:
You basically have to do a compromise and, based on analog data/past events, you make the best decision. Sometimes the analog data/past events gives you the upper hand over the forecast models. Meaning, in some sense, you ignore the forecast models if they don't show any snow or winter storm because you have a pattern that says yes, we should have winter weather issues. That, of course, depends on the situation. Like if we had no cold air around like we will next week before the systems, then we would have the typical cold air chasing the storm system. In that case, you would just say a few wrap around isolated snow showers are possible behind the system as it exits. No accumulations expected, etc. However, in next week's case, you do have the cold air in place and a pattern that is very similar that produced the more recent event. The biggest difference is you'll have very cold air infiltrating next week so again depending on storm system or systems track, your bulk precip would be all snow
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JPWX said:
My futile mind just says take the 3 models, split the difference of location and back off of the intensity.
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The GFS 18Z seems to moved a little more North. Living in South central Alabama in Dallas County, this is the type of setup that will usually give us snow. But sometimes we are too far North. And we rarely get snow like the north half of Alabama got last week because we are too far south. So, I am watching this one closely. I keep saying that I am moving north when I retire.
 
cyelle21 said:
I know these are the average of models and this is HIGHLY unlikely, but how rare would it actually be if the whole state of Alabama had snow on the ground. Has that ever happened before?
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March 1993, January 1977; January 2024 the entire state was under a Winter Weather Advisory at once due to freezing rain.
 
GFS has trended towards the other models with the 18z and now 00z runs, keeping that energy back in the SW which allows it to dig a bit more and cause some precipitation across the southeast on Tuesday. GFS and ICON look very similar now. Either would be a memorable storm for a lot of people near the coast. Both have a very similar look at 500mb as the January 2014 system.
 
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