Its last update took a lot of snow away from the I-20 corridor.
The upper level low over the Baja peninsula that is actually steering this thing would like a word.
Still digging is a good thing, right? That means it's pushing further south, and that's what we want?
Correct. It means still strengthening and influencing more to the south, and the further south the ULL is when it interacts with the gulf to spawn the surface low (cyclogenesis), the further south that surface low is likely to form. The ULL will have to move east significantly to have that influence, but it is forecast to start moving east soon. It's not really far off NAM's forecast position at this point, so I wouldn't wishcast any big significance to it. It's just the thing to watch now if you are nowcasting and not modelcasting. I like computer models, but I still find it fun to nowcast, and see what's actually happening evolve. Models are getting good enough that there's not any kind of advantage to nowcasting, but it keeps one learning more about the science I think. I used to watch these because I wanted to play in the snow, now I nerd out over the upper air dynamics for the 3 days before...lol.
Yes, in this case you want the low to be stronger and more aligned to ride the northern Gulf vs just onshore and the dynamics change with the placement, even down to a few miles which is what makes modeling so difficult here. I would highly suggest watching and waiting to get some real ground truth data in with where the low initializes, the track, all the things we need to see at this point to fine tune the guesswork the models are doing and so the actual placement/strength can be compared to the models.
Appreciate all your posts, your pretty informative, I don't know much about winter weather but reading some of your stuff helps.
I was about to say "well said" to you! Doing good! Hope you and yours are as well!
Yes, I am doing well also! Glad to hear the Snownose crew is all good...thanks for the plug also!
Thanks for that.
Excellent, that's why I do it. Weather is fascinating, and the more you learn, the more you realize you don't know and can never learn it all. It's an endless hobby you can dig as far into as you like and never find the bottom.
Your knowledge and sharing of it is appreciated. I'm a little intimidated to ask questions, because I don't know that kind of stuff I "should"know. But, my philosophy is "if you don't ask, you don't know".
Always ask questions, there's tons of folks here who are more than eager to answer!
