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Winter threat: 1/9-12/ 25

I suspect people south of Cullman are going to get a crash course on "warm air advection" by about 8 am Friday.
 
Models going back and forth? No... who could have predicted that? LOL.

It's central Alabama. WAA is ALWAYS the potential snow killer. It's always about the track of the low. In the gulf - snow. On land - ice or rain, as the warm nose is further north. We always watch for evap cooling, checking dewpoints to the east for wedge effects. We always watch upstream. We always watch the low temps before. Just the way it is. Could the temps be modeled too high? Yep, but less likely since all of the models were warmer today. Could they still even be too low? Also yes - it might be all rain a long way further north than expected. The models today are definitely on the warm side and consistently showed the low on shore over LA, MS, and AL. Will reality match that? Gotta watch and see. I don't call anything a boom or Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency until it happens on these.
 
Blountwolf said:
Models going back and forth? No... who could have predicted that? LOL.

It's central Alabama. WAA is ALWAYS the potential snow killer. It's always about the track of the low. In the gulf - snow. On land - ice or rain, as the warm nose is further north. We always watch for evap cooling, checking dewpoints to the east for wedge effects. We always watch upstream. We always watch the low temps before. Just the way it is. Could the temps be modeled too high? Yep, but less likely since all of the models were warmer today. Could they still even be too low? Also yes - it might be all rain a long way further north than expected. The models today are definitely on the warm side and consistently showed the low on shore over LA, MS, and AL. Will reality match that? Gotta watch and see. I don't call anything a boom or Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency until it happens on these.
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The atmosphere will end up doing whatever it decides to, much to the chagrin of weenies and whiners. Considering how much the South is not accustomed to winter events, for the average person, better to be safe than sorry.
 
NBC 13 dropped snow totals for Bham down to 1" or so too. We can't seem to get a decent snow setup anymore. This should be my last winter in Bham anyway but I'd like to see 1 while still here.
 
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I submit this for your reading:


"While the global models had problems predicting the event, higher-resolution options accurately predicted precipitation type and type-changeover. Despite the known NAM bias of over-predicting precipitation in cold air (it consistently showed 8-12 inches of snow in southeast Georgia), its precipitation type forecasts were accurate. As the event drew closer, the HRRR (and parallel HRRRx out to 36 hours) precisely forecast both precipitation type and amount. "

Yet another reason to watch and be impressed with the HRRR.
 
Blountwolf said:
I submit this for your reading:


"While the global models had problems predicting the event, higher-resolution options accurately predicted precipitation type and type-changeover. Despite the known NAM bias of over-predicting precipitation in cold air (it consistently showed 8-12 inches of snow in southeast Georgia), its precipitation type forecasts were accurate. As the event drew closer, the HRRR (and parallel HRRRx out to 36 hours) precisely forecast both precipitation type and amount. "

Yet another reason to watch and be impressed with the HRRR.
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It might not always sniff everything out, but the HRRR is a work of scientific and technological beauty, especially when you think about how far we've come.
 
WPC graphicast for this event, featuring nice, crisp geospatial visuals.
 
My mother is in Northeast Mississippi. She lives in Smithville, too, just like JPWX does. I told her what I told my wife this morning. We're on the edge of the icy line, too. It goes a little bit north. We're going to have a lot of cold rain. If it goes the other direction, we'll get ice and snow. It's part of living in the south I'm afraid.
 
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I kinda expect as always a sloppy winter mix, lots of rain, and maybe a dusting on the back side, as always lol; the wood stove in the basement is stocked with plenty of firewood just in case the winter part of the mix gets spicy though
 
These winter events go so wonky sometimes... I'm in Huntsville and I'm still suspicious that I'll see snow even with these nice looking odds IMBY.

Eyes Reaction GIF
 
KoD said:
These winter events go so wonky sometimes... I'm in Huntsville and I'm still suspicious that I'll see snow even with these nice looking odds IMBY.
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So this. I've been surprised both ways. Many times WAA dashes hopes, but during snowmageddon the opposite happened - the cold the nights before made a lot more stick than expected. My gut says this one overperforms, but it's not real accurate, as I am a snow wishcaster typically.
 
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