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Winter threat: 1/9-12/ 25

Players on stage. ULL tilting towards negative, phasing jets with moisture plume. Winds from the north still across much of the Gulf... hoping cyclogenesis is way south.

1736363379764.png
 
Flurry said:
Tilt it like a pinball machine
Click to expand...
Wish it really was going fully negative. Looking more cut off. Lots of moisture wrapping up though. Really pulling on that subtropical moisture plume now.
 
Winter Storm Warning for North MS
 
Gail said:
This is what CAFB meteorologists are currently saying…


Good Morning,

There are no major changes on the winter weather for Friday at this point in time. It continues to appear that the Hwy 82 corridor will be the transition zone between freezing rain, sleet, and snow, with mostly rain south of Lowndes county. Precipitation will begin tomorrow night as rain or a mix of rain and snow. Early Friday morning there could very well be some freezing rain (ice) early in the morning (4-8am) before transitioning into a mix of ice pellets and snow mid morning before going to all snow by Friday afternoon, before ending early Friday evening. At this time snowfall totals look like 1-3 inches in northern Lowndes county, closer to 1 inch south of 82 in Lowndes county. Some ice and sleet accumulation for Friday morning look to be .10 to .25 inches are possible for the entire county. We’ll continue to provide updates through event.”
Click to expand...

I got really excited because I thought Lowndes County Alabama
 
Check put hrrr 12z run, colder major snow storm. The 850 temps are colder....I believe fr9m heavier precip due to meltative cooling. Once the precip lets up, the warm air flowing in aloft wins the battle and the snow changes to rain...in other word, precip type will be a function of intensity. The heavier it is, more likely it's snow
 
One thing catching my eye is the visible sat showing surface winds still out of the north across a big area of the gulf. <fingers crossed that's a good sign for more southerly low>
 
Definitely interesting - think you are on to something, Richard. Check out HRRR modifying the amounts due to the mountains. Pretty much no doubt that's the southern end of the range showing on the accumulation map. Impressive - never seen a model do that before.

1736366826695.png
 
NAM says gross... juiced temps at 850, but you can kind of see what I am assuming is rapid cooling/deform band setting up in C AL1736367889003.png
 
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