Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 190444Z - 190645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for a possible increase in
thunderstorm organization and intensity during the next couple of
hours over the central Gulf coastal region. A ww issuance is
possible, but remains uncertain and will ultimately depend on
convective trends.
DISCUSSION...Storms have recently shown an increase in coverage over
the central Gulf coast region including extreme southern AL and the
far western FL Panhandle. The convection is discrete, but has so far
shown very little tendency for organization. Activity appears to be
forming in association with an increase in the southern extension of
the low-level jet which is responding to the next in a series of
vorticity maxima rotating through the base of the synoptic trough.
Dewpoints have increased to around 70 F south of the warm front,
which has contributed to destabilization (MLCAPE from 1000-1500
J/kg) along the central Gulf Coast region. However, the atmosphere
still has not yet fully recovered from the effects of previous
convection. Nevertheless, given increasing forcing for ascent,
modest instability, sizeable low-level hodographs and strong
effective shear, this area bears watching next couple hours for
evidence of organization and possible supercell development.
