Big speculation alert -- and by someone who doesn't know much weather science, too.
I didn't dare put this in the Lee thread, but after reading
this from a reliable source, couldn't help thinking of how well models showed the hurricane's course once it got out of Godzilla mode.
And I wondered: What if they were just as accurate early on, too? You know, this huge, 200-mph monster.
And what if there is a factor or factors that we don't know about yet (not metaphysical, jes' plain mortal and subject to human observation and scientific analysis) that kicks in during such an extreme event and somehow moves it towards the intensity spectrum's central and most highly populated area?
If scientists can hypothesize about the universe healing itself to prevent time-travel paradoxes -- that
is an interesting article linked above -- why not speculate about a hurricane-moderating factor, at least in the Atlantic basin, at least when SSTs (and probably other conditions IDK) are outside their normal ranges?
If something meteorological exists along those lines, it wouldn't have been observed yet for the same reason that supereruptions haven't been observed yet: an inverse relationship between intensity and frequency.
Our models therefore can't pick it up yet, so they just show the before and afterwards states? And we missed the factor because we don't know about it yet and don't know how to look for it?
To find something, one must first have an idea of what it might look like (although "This is weird..." moments are

).
I am by no means proposing this is true. It's just an interesting idea I had, and those are always worth throwing out there. Take it FWIW, which probably isn't much
