warneagle
Member
Title of this one will probably have to be changed to Marco in a few hours, but I figured I'd go ahead and get it started.
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Tropical Depression Tropical Depression Marco
- Thread starter warneagle
- Start date
Kory
Member
Might get Laura first. Recon is going to TD14 first.
Kory
Member
Well, Marco has intensified nicely overnight. Partial eyeball observed by recon...and it's on the far eastern edge of guidance. I would think that would have larger implications with the ridge and weakness Laura will follow later. Models still don't have a good grasp.
Evan
Member
On Cuban radar you can also see the eyewall forming.
TornadoFan
Member
Marco now expected to become a hurricane later today.
Kory
Member
Closed eyewall on Marco. That means a whole new ballgame with regards to ridge strength. Everything is shift East on both storms. Louisiana is clearly the bullseye for both...right now.
- Thread starter
- #7
warneagle
Member
The GFS brings both right into southern LA. Marco over New Orleans on Monday morning then a much stronger Laura further west on Thursday night. Not taking it literally at this range of course but obviously still a serious concern.
Jetstream
Member
For Marco......Hurricane watch now up from Intercoastal City La eastward to Miss/Ala border.
Big shift eastward on this update.
Big shift eastward on this update.
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BayouWeatherGeek
Member
Ugh, I'm right in the bullseye zone for both these storms.
Jetstream
Member
Kory
Member
Looks like a pinhole eye on Marco. He’s strengthening nicely despite being under 15kts of shear.
TornadoFan
Member
We now have Hurricane Marco.
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Weird track... What are they seeing?
akt1985
Member
It looks like Marco is falling apart and may not even be a hurricane anymore.
Yep, downgraded.
- Moderator
- #18
I think the shear is getting to the better of him, appears to be really struggling on the satellite imagery. HWRF and GFS agree on the weakening trend with the latest HWRF showing some minor reintensification prior to landfall but nothing major. I'd not completely disregard this system given the trend of things but I don't see much potential for a strength at/beyond cat 1 given the environment and forward speed.
That said, small tropical systems are less predicable and can intensify quite rapidly right?
That said, small tropical systems are less predicable and can intensify quite rapidly right?
When weaker, Marco feels the westward flow more (not mine: my understanding of Levi's discussion at Tropical Tidbits yesterday). But Marco could strengthen again in the meantime and resist it. Tough for forecasters!
There's a comment in the current NHC discussion that it's not impossible that Marco may not make landfall. This seems unlikely, but I sure hate to think of even a weak storm just sitting off the coast.
If that does occur, Marco will be farther west, out of incoming Laura's path, right?
Honestly, I'm questioning the west turn.
