Tropical Depression Tropical Depression Cindy

[Taylor Campbell]

Operational GFS has shown what could potentially be Bret for several runs now. It's been moving up in time, and there's a fair amount of ensemble support. Definitely an area, and way of development that is climatology favored.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

As of recent, all of the GFS ensemble members show development. The EURO is also picking up on a disturbance. It looks to possibly develop by next weekend.

 

[stormcentral]

Latest GFS has a storm that impacts from NOLA to landfall east of Tallahassee near Big Bend. Got interesting real quick.

Sent from my LGLS775 using TalkWeather mobile app

 

[stormcentral]

Sent from my LGLS775 using TalkWeather mobile app

 

[apocalyptic_pleasures]

NWS says its a moderate chance

Last Updated: 06.09.17 Valid: 06.10.17 - 06.20.17
The global tropics have been relatively quiet this past week, since the dissolution of minimal Tropical Storm Beatriz on June 2, not far west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in southern Mexico. For the Week-1 period, there are two low-risk areas (hence no shapes drawn on map) being monitored for possible tropical development. The first is over the extreme eastern Pacific, just south of Mexico's Gulf of Tehuantepec, where a broad area of low pressure is being monitored by NHC. The second low-risk area includes the Philippines and adjacent portions of the South China Sea and Philippine Sea. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) notes that since there is only a weak low-level circulation center, scattered convection, and marginal upper-level conditions predicted for the next 24 hours, tropical cyclone potential is considered low. A statistical mode decomposition tool shows this area may be associated with an equatorial Rossby Wave in the near-term. During Week-2, deterministic ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian model guidance all point to potential formation of a tropical cyclone near the Yucatan Peninsula; either over the far northwestern Caribbean Sea, or the Bay of Campeche. This is attributed, at least in part, to a kelvin wave which is expected to pass through this region several days earlier. In addition, a fairly broad area of above-average rainfall is favored throughout this region.

The MJO forecast remains uncertain given forecast interference between the MJO signal, and other intraseasonal variability. The GEFS-based RMM MJO index currently indicates a very low amplitude signal, which is predicted to gradually amplify over the Africa/western Indian Ocean area during the next two weeks. Areas favoring above- and below-average rainfall were updated based on the latest dynamical model consensus.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php

 

[apocalyptic_pleasures]

Tonight's 00z model runs would appear to indicate some lower pressures in the gulf area by next Monday evening

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Brent]

The Gulf is looking interesting next week, models have become consistent with something forming but there's a split between TX/MX and FL.

 

[Brent]

The 12z GFS para has Bret in the Eastern Gulf on Monday and Cindy southeast of Puerto Rico lol

 

[JayF]

I thought Names were not supposed to be reused when they are hurricanes and cause large amounts of Damage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bret

 

[Brent]

I thought Names were not supposed to be reused when they are hurricanes and cause large amounts of Damage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bret

A government still has to request it be retired and it has to be pretty bad. Bret made landfall where no one lives down in South Texas(trust me I've been there) so it didn't get retired.

Emily is back this year and it was way worse than Bret.

 

[Brent]

microwave imagery looks suspicious, like it could be near classification.

This might be Bret and the Gulf mess be Cindy lol

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I'm not sure why you changed the title on this one. Should have just created a new thread for the Invest that has no model support from the globals.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Can you please fix. Thank you.

 

[Brent]

lol sorry just got back from vacation and I was a bit lost when I fixed the threads

Anyway they're both code red on the day 5 at 2am and honestly 92L is closer to classification IMO so I wouldn't be surprised if this is Cindy.

 

[Lori]

Perry would be beside himself about this storm!!!

Brent, you returned just in time!!

 

[KoD]

Looks like decent development is probable, I wasn't expecting a tropical event so soon!

 

[Bama Ravens]

00z model suite has the path narrowed down!!

 

[Brent]

CMC shifted west to LA, HWRF Into LA, GFS and GFS Para still into Florida, UKMET/last run of the Euro into Texas/Mexico

Nice consensus lol

and landfall is in 3 days on most runs!!! NHC is starting advisories on land-threatening invests this year at some point so it'll be interesting if it happens here because watches could be needed by tomorrow night even if it's not officially a cyclone and the hurricane hunters are scheduled tomorrow as well.

 

[WesL]

Let's see. I'm supposed to be in Pensacola this week so I'm sure it will be coming ashore near there

 

[apocalyptic_pleasures]

Let's see. I'm supposed to be in Pensacola this week so I'm sure it will be coming ashore near there

06z average/TVCN would say you aren't too far off LOL