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Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

jiharris0220 said:
Cookville is the most recent freak example of a violent tornado happening in a very marginal threat day.
Never will that instance not be insane.
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Winterset, IA 2022 (although that only really appeared marginal in the days leading up to it, SPC did introduce a 10% contour during one of the Day 1 updates prior to the event).

One thing I'm learning is how important lapse rates and 3CAPE are.

Shakespeare 2016 said:
I do wonder what it would take for the SPC to go with the dreaded 60% hatched area for violent tornadoes. I know it has happened once in 200ybut that was before the EF-SCALE started being used.
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Frankly, I'm a little surprised they didn't use it on 4/27/11. Maybe simply the then relatively fresh (5 years) memory of the fact that the one time they had used it previously (4/7/2006) didn't really live up to being that bad (it was still a substantial outbreak, but would have been adequately covered by a "normal" high risk (30% hatched).
 
This storm over Perry Co. is getting better-defined.
1712113984178.png
 
kcyalater said:
just went svr. nothing to choke it from the south so this one might be a little late night surprise.
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Tornado possible tag on it so they're definitely watching it.
 
Couplet intensifying, it may be about to drop.
1712114644116.png
 
Tornado Warning now.
 
TH2002 said:
Just gonna throw this out there

View attachment 24880
View attachment 24879
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Well we are gonna throw this right back to you bc….
Angry Oh No GIF by CBC
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Winterset, IA 2022 (although that only really appeared marginal in the days leading up to it, SPC did introduce a 10% contour during one of the Day 1 updates prior to the event).

One thing I'm learning is how important lapse rates and 3CAPE are.



Frankly, I'm a little surprised they didn't use it on 4/27/11. Maybe simply the then relatively fresh (5 years) memory of the fact that the one time they had used it previously (4/7/2006) didn't really live up to being that bad (it was still a substantial outbreak, but would have been adequately covered by a "normal" high risk (30% hatched).
Click to expand...
I know April 14, 2012 was very close as well. There was a 45% hatched area for violent tornadoes from S Central Kansas to like Central Nebraska. It didn't perform as well as others thought but it still was at least a high-end moderate risk or low-end high risk.
 
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