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Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

Dry air, crapvection, weak instability, messy storm mode, and to think the one failure mode almost no one talked about was subpar lapse rates.
Which turned out to be the one FM that dampened this event. That’s forecasting meteorology for ya.
 
I'll say it - YAY, MOSTLY A Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency!

After having been on the ground in Pratt City after April 27, 2011, I see any tornado event that doesn't happen as a good tornado. We all love the chase, but the truth is at the end of the day that they are fascinating forces of nature that are often also powerful enough to destroy lives.
 
Blountwolf said:
I'll say it - YAY, MOSTLY A Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency!

After having been on the ground in Pratt City after April 27, 2011, I see any tornado event that doesn't happen as a good tornado. We all love the chase, but the truth is at the end of the day that they are fascinating forces of nature that are often also powerful enough to destroy lives.
Click to expand...

As forecasted, it Atmospheric Anti-Climax, yes there was tornadoes, but I didn’t see any long track ones where the greatest risk was placed. Very fortunate bc the tornado warnings that I caught 500 yards from me originated west of Louisville, and dropped west of new castle. Im
Just ready to be home lol
 
Hopefully it continues to mind its manners, but there is certainly no shortage of soup available to fire off a late night surprise or three in SE AL and GA.
 
I still don’t see this as a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, like I said earlier moderate risk doesn’t mean a barrage of violent tornadoes.
The NWS never had strong words for today, as the worst messaging in the watches were “a couple strong tornadoes possible”.
Which did occur in the pds warnings, of course we won’t know the full extent of damage until tomorrow.
I’m just getting the popcorn ready for the inevitable wxtwitter sh&t storm.
Although the state of emergency was a bit head scratching, but I digress.
 
jiharris0220 said:
I still don’t see this as a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, like I said earlier moderate risk doesn’t mean a barrage of violent tornadoes.
The NWS never had strong words for today, as the worst messaging in the watches were “a couple strong tornadoes possible”.
Which did occur in the pds warnings, of course we won’t know the full extent of damage until tomorrow.
I’m just getting the popcorn ready for the inevitable wxtwitter sh&t storm.
Although I will say I think the state of emergency was a bit head scratching, but I digress.
Click to expand...
Right!!!

There is a difference in the wording of the SPC between “possible” and “likely” and NEITHER one of those words mean 100%. I think a lot of people overhype forecasts to the degree that the SPC doesn’t intend.

I ignore the trolls who criticize the SPC for a job they don’t have the knowledge, experience, and education the SPC has. If people have a problem with the SPC, then they can apply to work there and see what it’s like hahahahahhaaha
 
I think it just all has to do with how people perceive svr risk. As that’s all it is, a risk, not a guarantee, I mean, it’s literally called “moderate”. 15% isn’t exactly a high number, and like you said, not a single udder of the word “violent tornadoes” was mentioned in the nws outlooks at all. So people really shouldn’t have expected any.
 
This storm east of Demopolis may bear watching.
1712112645635.png
 
jiharris0220 said:
I think it just all has to do with how people perceive svr risk. As that’s all it is, a risk, not a guarantee, I mean, it’s literally called “moderate”. 15% isn’t exactly a high number, and like you said, not a single udder of the word “violent” was mentioned in the nws outlooks at all.
Click to expand...

It is level 4 out of 5, and as such is supposed to be reserved for pretty high-ceiling threats; but ones where there is a little too much uncertainty or less coverage expected to go with a high risk (5/5). At least, when it comes to a tornado-driven moderate (15% hatched). Moderate can also mean widespread (45% hatched probability area) coverage of large hail and/or damaging winds.
 
jiharris0220 said:
I still don’t see this as a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, like I said earlier moderate risk doesn’t mean a barrage of violent tornadoes.
The NWS never had strong words for today, as the worst messaging in the watches were “a couple strong tornadoes possible”.
Which did occur in the pds warnings, of course we won’t know the full extent of damage until tomorrow.
I’m just getting the popcorn ready for the inevitable wxtwitter sh&t storm.
Although the state of emergency was a bit head scratching, but I digress.
Click to expand...

WW77 referenced the possibility of "intense tornadoes".
 
CheeselandSkies said:
It is level 4 out of 5, and as such is supposed to be reserved for pretty high-ceiling threats; but ones where there is a little too much uncertainty or less coverage expected to go with a high risk (5/5). At least, when it comes to a tornado-driven moderate (15% hatched). Moderate can also mean widespread (45% hatched probability area) coverage of large hail and/or damaging winds.
Click to expand...
This was a high ceiling threat. But again, only a 15% chance of that ceiling being realized.
Rarely does a moderate risk actual goes worst case scenario, because well, 85% of the time things don’t line up.
 
Justin Hindman said:
I can’t explain it, but Georgia always has surprises with 1 am tornadoes in events like these. Will be interesting to see if Georgia gets anything
Click to expand...
We'll be totally empty on a High Risk day, but get smacked by a bunch of EF2s while we are sitting in a Slight Risk.
 
Tornado Watch expanded eastward in GA, including ATL.
 
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