Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

[172556]

It's hard to get a good look at it, but we may get the first tornado warning out of that St. Thomas MO storm soon.

 

[GeneralChow]

First Tornado was on the ground in Kingfisher, OK. Video below.

 

[OhOkayThen]

Storm a couple counties west of St Louis hooking very hard. In line for St Louis metro. Could be a problem in the next hour.

 

[jiharris0220]

Yes but just keep in mind .. That was so unique in that we were looking at "July DP's" with dynamics we usually see with Dec/Jan systems. Just insane for both to be present.

The point exactly is that, you can still have insane kinematics despite a lot of pre event crapvection.
The fact the atmosphere that day recovered to that degree is a statement in of itself.

 

[warneagle]

I think people are putting a bit too much stock with the pre set up rainfall. That doesn’t always mean a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, the 2011 super outbreak had an entire MCS run through the entire risk area and look what still happened.

True, but that was also in the deep south rather than the Ohio valley (i.e. closer to the moisture source), had a crazy LLJ to transport that moisture northward, and a good 8 hours of at least some insolation to recover the atmosphere prior to initiation.

 

[Justin Hindman]

The april 27 squall line went through rb between 3-6 am, as Sun was rising it was gone, the atmosphere had all day to reload, not the case here

 

[GeneralChow]

Storm a couple counties west of St Louis hooking very hard. In line for St Louis metro. Could be a problem in the next hour.

Could be a problem any second. lol. They should upgrade to a tornado warning.

 

[OhOkayThen]

Could be a problem any second. lol. They should upgrade that storm.

Yep, cell moving into St Louis right now is starting to tighten up as well.

 

[172556]

Could be a problem any second. lol. They should upgrade to a tornado warning.

Meanwhile, to the west, there's a 7kft 145mph gate-to-gate on the most recent scan. Still SVR.

 

[Clancy]

Troublemaker en route to St. Louis.

 

[jiharris0220]

The april 27 squall line went through rb between 3-6 am, as Sun was rising it was gone, the atmosphere had all day to reload, not the case here

True, but the rain shield forecasted tomorrow should clear Ohio by 11:00am. Not exactly the same time interval if recovery but more than enough depending on strength of surface low.

 

[OhOkayThen]

It would be pretty wild start if the first Tornado Warning of the day is the St Louis metro. Kind of shocked they haven't pulled the gun for safety sake on such a large population.

 

[Clancy]

True, but the rain shield forecasted tomorrow should clear Ohio by 11:00am. Not exactly the same time interval if recovery but more than enough depending on strength of surface low.

Though not an exact analog by any means, March 2, 2012 exhibited a significant amount of late-morning/early-afternoon convection over much of the risk area; despite that, a potent tornado outbreak unfolded later that day. So it's definitely not impossible, and with this setup I wouldn't be taking any chances on it.

 

[TornadoFan]

Jefferson City storm now tornado warned.

 

[cincywx]

 

[Clancy]

Velocity hole near Westphalia.

 

[OhOkayThen]

View attachment 24614

Not much of anything standing between this cell and the St Louis metro.

 

[GeneralChow]

View attachment 24614

They finally tagged it with a Tornado Warning.

 

[Clancy]

Currently TOR-warned storm is within a sweet spot of helicity and instability.

 

[TornadoFan]