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Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

Austin Dawg said:
The term that I keep hearing that worries me for tomorrow is reloading. They keep talking about the atmosphere reloading from the upper Midwest down through the Kentucky-Tennessee area. I remember another system that reloaded during the day like that about 14 years ago.
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Yeah, I do too, and that event reloaded to become much worse than the 1st day event..
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
15z rap is impressive parameter space for Ohio. Waiting on that 21z run
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21z RAP maintains a gnarly environment and a little more backing of winds in the lowest levels, but the overall area is much thinner than we've seen so far. additionally, it suggests nonstop precip over much of the moderate risk area with very little time for destabilizing. something to watch.
 
Austin Dawg said:
The term that I keep hearing that worries me for tomorrow is reloading. They keep talking about the atmosphere reloading from the upper Midwest down through the Kentucky-Tennessee area. I remember another system that reloaded during the day like that about 14 years ago.
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I interpret that a bit differently.

Yes. They expect the Atmosphere to destabilize after the early morning convection passes through the Ohio Valley. However, it's also possible that the early morning convection and cloud cover stabilizes portions of the higher risk area in Ohio.
 
cincywx said:
21z RAP maintains a gnarly environment and a little more backing of winds in the lowest levels, but the overall area is much thinner than we've seen so far. additionally, it suggests nonstop precip over much of the moderate risk area with very little time for destabilizing. something to watch.
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That's what sort of shocked me with the sudden major upgrade for Ohio. A lot of rain is going to fall over the next 18 hours in the MDT area. I figured they wanted to see some more updates before pulling the trigger on the MDT. SPC seems convinced we will get enough destabilization, however, so we shall see.
 
My question is how do the storms explode with all the rain to the south blocking energy coming from the gulf?
 

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I think a lot of the moisture will already be in place by the time storms initiate across IN/OH tomorrow afternoon. Clearly still a lot to iron out and the potential for junk convection is probably the limiting factor at this time. Still though, with the dry air punching through the back of the system on top of the very impressive synoptics , I feel somewhat worried we have a significant chance of discrete supercells. Would love to be wrong though - hopefully by tomorrow morning things are looking a lot less menacing.

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Yeah. To be honest, I'm more concerned for North MS into Alabama than Ohio tomorrow. As Justin pointed out, you're gonna have a lot of rainfall plus training of storms over the warm front positioned in the area. Not to discount the tornado risk there, but it's gonna have trouble producing discrete supercells IF that rain mass pans out. We'll see.
 
GeneralChow said:
I interpret that a bit differently.

Yes. They expect the Atmosphere to destabilize after the early morning convection passes through the Ohio Valley. However, it's also possible that the early morning convection and cloud cover stabilizes portions of the higher risk area in Ohio.
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I really hope you're right. That's a large area.
 
OhOkayThen said:
That's what sort of shocked me with the sudden major upgrade for Ohio. A lot of rain is going to fall over the next 18 hours in the MDT area. I figured they wanted to see some more updates before pulling the trigger on the MDT. SPC seems convinced we will get enough destabilization, however, so we shall see.
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It's not like there isn't a significant threat of tornadic activity over Ohio. Given what the models are showing over a relatively populated area, I think they had to pull the trigger in order to warn the public. They could always downgrade the threat level tomorrow morning.
 
JPWX said:
Yeah. To be honest, I'm more concerned for North MS into Alabama than Ohio tomorrow. As Justin pointed out, you're gonna have a lot of rainfall plus training of storms over the warm front positioned in the area. Not to discount the tornado risk there, but it's gonna have trouble producing discrete supercells IF that rain mass pans out. We'll see.
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James Spann does not seemed to concerned about the tornado threat for North alabama
 
GeneralChow said:
It's not like there isn't a significant threat of tornadic activity over Ohio. Given what the models are showing over a relatively populated area, I think they had to pull the trigger in order to warn the public. They could always downgrade the threat level tomorrow morning.
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Yeah but it's not exactly normal for SPC to jump from 0-2% TOR to 15% TOR in 1 update. Not sure I have ever seen it within 36 hours of an event. Metrics are definitely there, but it's shocking they upgraded to that degree.
 
jiharris0220 said:
I think people are putting a bit too much stock with the pre set up rainfall. That doesn’t always mean a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, the 2011 super outbreak had an entire MCS run through the entire risk area and look what still happened.
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Yeah that too. Great point. I was gonna mention that but didn't want to go there.
 
OhOkayThen said:
That's what sort of shocked me with the sudden major upgrade for Ohio. A lot of rain is going to fall over the next 18 hours in the MDT area. I figured they wanted to see some more updates before pulling the trigger on the MDT. SPC seems convinced we will get enough destabilization, however, so we shall see.
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most of the severe threats we get up here tend to come down to this, and most of the time, the atmosphere does not destabilize fast enough and things ultimately end up pretty tame. however, the march 14th outbreak in IN/OH was thanks to destabilization at a pace far more rapid than i can recall seeing up this way in a long time. as such, uncertainty lingers. i hope that crapvection bails us out as per usual, but its important to be aware that there's a scenario where that is not the case and be prepared just in case.
 
To me it's all about when the MCS develops upscale and when the moisture and warm front reach up north. The thing is, most of the moisture already seems in place by the time cells start to fire off, so I wouldn't think that it would matter all too much.
 
Seems like one of those setups where the traditional flies in the ointment aren't showing up in force like they usually do. Of course, the only way to really know - wait and see.
 
jiharris0220 said:
I think people are putting a bit too much stock with the pre set up rainfall. That doesn’t always mean a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, the 2011 super outbreak had an entire MCS run through the entire risk area and look what still happened.
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I don't think anyone is definitively arguing that tomorrow's event will be a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency due to 'crapvection'. It's just a factor worthy of discussion.
 
jiharris0220 said:
I think people are putting a bit too much stock with the pre set up rainfall. That doesn’t always mean a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, the 2011 super outbreak had an entire MCS run through the entire risk area and look what still happened.
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Yes but just keep in mind .. That was so unique in that we were looking at "July DP's" with dynamics we usually see with Dec/Jan systems. Just insane for both to be present.
 
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