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Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

Clancy said:
18Z HRRR sounding from west of Cullman, AL. Turning of winds with altitude, long, curved hodograph, plus plenty of instability.
View attachment 24598
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That sounding may as well be from my house. We live about five minutes west of Cullman. Thank God we have a basement. I have a very, very bad feeling about tomorrow and have had for a few days now.
 
15Z SREF demonstrates elevated confidence in possibly tornadic activity over central into southern AL. Pair this with the 18Z HRRR UH, and you have trouble. If recent solutions are correct, the entire state may be in play for tornadoes and damaging winds tomorrow.
1712000534935.pnguh03_max.us_se.png
 
wx_guy said:
Yeah, tomorrow is giving me vibes of a regional outbreak that is once-in-several-years type of event. It is covering a huge area.
Click to expand...

It is crazy how tomorrow continues to seem to expand in terms of areas under fire. Could be a widespread outbreak. It seems now much of Alabama is under the gun. I still believe you will/should see a small moderate area in Northern Alabama in the morning and maybe a slight southwestern expansion of the Northern moderate.
 
Clancy said:
I certainly hope modelling has got it all wrong, but yeah, I don't like the feeling of it.
Click to expand...
Yeah, at the overnight update to the threats, if model trends continue the way they're going, I'd expect a much larger MDT area (maybe a HIGH, but not sure), and the ENH expanding southward into most of AL and GA.
 
Stronger-than-usual wording from FFC in their afternoon AFD, suggesting Georgia shouldn't sleep on this threat.
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024

At a glance:

-Warm temperatures out a head of the cold front will prime our CWA
for thunderstorms Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.

-Cooler temps are expected for the start of the long term.

The rest of the day and tomorrow will be 10 to 20 degrees above
normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the
mid 60s. Dewpoints tomorrow are expected to surge into the mid 60s.
The only thing keeping these approaching system from going off the
deep end is the fact that we`re expecting pretty substantial cloud
coverage tomorrow which may limit the instability to only the
available energy generated from SW flow out of the gulf.

The initial push of storms (in NW GA) will hold together farther
south and east than we previously anticipated, especially with
latest 12Z hi-res guidance indicating less of a drop-off in
instability over the ATL metro. Hi-res guidance appears to be coming
into better agreement that we could see an additional push of
stronger storms during the early morning hours (especially after
~06Z) to the south and east of the current Enhanced Risk area, too.
With 500-800 J/kg of SBCAPE, it appears we will have sufficient
instability to go along with deep layer bulk shear values of 50-60
kts, 0-1 km shear values of 30-40 kts, 700-500 mb lapse rates of
over 7 C/km, and good curvature on hodographs at the low levels
combined with strong forcing ahead of the front to support storms
capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and brief tornadoes.

Tomorrow night is shaping up to be a potentially spicy night with a
whole range of severe weather threats for northwest Georgia. Please
continue to monitor the forecast for the latest updates.
Click to expand...
 
But I think we’ll definitely have an outlook of some sort looking 3/31/23 of last year. Alabama is definitely under the gun giving the amount of sheer and other variables. Definitely should have the ENH stretch farther south in the next outlooks I would think.
 
While I have been personally less conservative for a while on tomorrow's threat - I think today's is a lot more balanced and on the margins, which in some ways makes it more interesting.

From the latest models, I'm (and I am just an amateur enthusiast so all this is based on self learned stuff and observations) seeing two main issues limiting today:
  1. The discrete mode is in my opinion somewhat conditional and isnt necessarily perfectly supported by the background synoptic or a nicely defined boundary. Not to say we wont see discrete storms evolving across SE OK later but I just find it harder to confidently say an intense tornado risk is present when we don't yet know about a long duration discrete mode in the same timeframe as when wind profiles improve later on. The mode will almost certainly be discrete initially with a massive hail risk, but shear will be much less favorable for strong tornadoes during this period. The opposition to that is that CAMS have been showing a pretty solid signal for a while now - this is quite hard to ignore
  2. I think the environment around the discrete cells could be a bit too dry. Storms will entrain a lot of dry air, will easily become outflow dominant and also have trouble producing intense tornadoes with such a cool/unbuoyant RFD if the storm ingests air as dry as this sounding suggests (taken SE from the Oklahoma discrete storm at 01z). That could also play into limiting the discrete mode as mentioned above. However, what's interesting is that proximity soundings which are contaminated but closer to the storm have a much more moist boundary layer - but its hard to draw the line of what is a realistic storm scale environmental modification which the storm would produce in the model as opposed to real life.
    1712000155627.png
With those two caveats gone, the environment across SE Oklahoma after 00z does look to turn very favorable especially with regards to the enlarged hodographs. If we still have a discrete cell that can balance the various updrafts and downdrafts well enough, I think its a distinct possibility that an intense tornado could be produced. This is definitely a good scenario I could envisage the SPC using the 'double hatched' in the future: in one or two places things could become very bad - but the uncertainty of this is very high and I can understand them not wanting to upgrade to 15% at this point going on uncertainty and coverage issues.
 
UK_EF4 said:
While I have been personally less conservative for a while on tomorrow's threat - I think today's is a lot more balanced and on the margins, which in some ways makes it more interesting.

From the latest models, I'm (and I am just an amateur enthusiast so all this is based on self learned stuff and observations) seeing two main issues limiting today:
  1. The discrete mode is in my opinion somewhat conditional and isnt necessarily perfectly supported by the background synoptic or a nicely defined boundary. Not to say we wont see discrete storms evolving across SE OK later but I just find it harder to confidently say an intense tornado risk is present when we don't yet know about a long duration discrete mode in the same timeframe as when wind profiles improve later on. The mode will almost certainly be discrete initially with a massive hail risk, but shear will be much less favorable for strong tornadoes during this period. The opposition to that is that CAMS have been showing a pretty solid signal for a while now - this is quite hard to ignore
  2. I think the environment around the discrete cells could be a bit too dry. Storms will entrain a lot of dry air, will easily become outflow dominant and also have trouble producing intense tornadoes with such a cool/unbuoyant RFD if the storm ingests air as dry as this sounding suggests (taken SE from the Oklahoma discrete storm at 01z). That could also play into limiting the discrete mode as mentioned above. However, what's interesting is that proximity soundings which are contaminated but closer to the storm have a much more moist boundary layer - but its hard to draw the line of what is a realistic storm scale environmental modification which the storm would produce in the model as opposed to real life.
    View attachment 24597
With those two caveats gone, the environment across SE Oklahoma after 00z does look to turn very favorable especially with regards to the enlarged hodographs. If we still have a discrete cell that can balance the various updrafts and downdrafts well enough, I think its a distinct possibility that an intense tornado could be produced. This is definitely a good scenario I could envisage the SPC using the 'double hatched' in the future: in one or two places things could become very bad - but the uncertainty of this is very high and I can understand them not wanting to upgrade to 15% at this point going on uncertainty and coverage issues.
Click to expand...
Certainly enough flies in the ointment for some refrain on the outlooks from SPC for today. There's still some questions about the wind fields in parts of OK; though forecast to intensify this evening, that temporal overlap of better shear and cellular development might be quite small. Still, a QLCS tornado risk would be potent this evening even without more discrete convection.
 
Ughh oh hail no!
Still haven't got the divets from the last attack.

1712001198582.png
 
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