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Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

cincywx said:
the only comments i have for this are fcst/location/time - 12z HRRR, cincinnati, 21z tuesday. i think the rest speaks for itself...pretty loudly, in fact.

View attachment 24578
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The SARS analogs in particular got my attention--I was able to immediately identify four of the five supercell analogs right off the bat!
 
cincywx said:
the only comments i have for this are fcst/location/time - 12z HRRR, cincinnati, 21z tuesday. i think the rest speaks for itself...pretty loudly, in fact.
Click to expand...
Scary look without a lot of obvious caveats. Feels like this definitely merits a 10 hatched next time around.
 
Well personally I think a lot of the energy gets cut off from the northern areas. I don’t even think the southern area of enhanced will have much of a tornado threat either. Looks like a more straight line wind event with imbedded small spin up tornadoes in the line as it pushes through.
 
The 12Z WRF suite, which is usually rather bearish on threats compared to the other CAMs, is particularly aggressive compared to usual, and causes me a bit of concern.
sbcape_hodo.us_ov.pngsbcape_hodo.us_ov (1).png
 
Memphis finally got the memo
Forecast soundings from
selected models depict that a moderate amount of instability will
be coupled with 50+ knots of effective shear and greater than 150
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. These factors combined with the somewhat
orthogonal orientation of shear vectors to initiating boundary,
per the latest SREF guidance, suggests the potential for storms to
be discrete and potentially supercellular capable of all severe
hazards.
 
Same forecast but “absolutely calibrated”… anyone know what that means though? This was in the comments of nadocasts tweet

 
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