Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

[Thanksgivingbrown]

Yeah models and soundings are definitely trending up for this event in the Tennessee Valley

 

[cincywx]

the only comments i have for this are fcst/location/time - 12z HRRR, cincinnati, 21z tuesday. i think the rest speaks for itself...pretty loudly, in fact.

 

[Tennie]

the only comments i have for this are fcst/location/time - 12z HRRR, cincinnati, 21z tuesday. i think the rest speaks for itself...pretty loudly, in fact.

View attachment 24578

The SARS analogs in particular got my attention--I was able to immediately identify four of the five supercell analogs right off the bat!

 

[TornadoFan]

For what it's worth, Oklahoma is already seeing temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the 60s.

 

[SmokeEater]

For what it's worth, Oklahoma is already seeing temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the 60s.

New video coming out shortly from Trey, he really likes the area along the Red River, S OK, etc.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

 

[warneagle]

the only comments i have for this are fcst/location/time - 12z HRRR, cincinnati, 21z tuesday. i think the rest speaks for itself...pretty loudly, in fact.

Scary look without a lot of obvious caveats. Feels like this definitely merits a 10 hatched next time around.

 

[Former Member 1430]

Well personally I think a lot of the energy gets cut off from the northern areas. I don’t even think the southern area of enhanced will have much of a tornado threat either. Looks like a more straight line wind event with imbedded small spin up tornadoes in the line as it pushes through.

 

[TornadoFan]

Trey's new video is up.

 

[Clancy]

The 12Z WRF suite, which is usually rather bearish on threats compared to the other CAMs, is particularly aggressive compared to usual, and causes me a bit of concern.

 

[JPWX]

Memphis finally got the memo
Forecast soundings from
selected models depict that a moderate amount of instability will
be coupled with 50+ knots of effective shear and greater than 150
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. These factors combined with the somewhat
orthogonal orientation of shear vectors to initiating boundary,
per the latest SREF guidance, suggests the potential for storms to
be discrete and potentially supercellular capable of all severe
hazards.

 

[Smokedevil]

To me, everything is lining up for a bigger deal for North MS into Alabama. 12z HRRR has a SCP of 5.2 at my house. watch for the Enhanced Risk to get extended further south

I'm your ambulance coverage. I live north of you by about 25 miles.

 

[Tanner]

Well personally I think a lot of the energy gets cut off from the northern areas. I don’t even think the southern area of enhanced will have much of a tornado threat either. Looks like a more straight line wind event with imbedded small spin up tornadoes in the line as it pushes through.

no

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Former Member 1430]

no

Huh seems Trey mentioned a more linear event to preclude more of a tornado risk.

 

[Tanner]

Huh seems Trey mentioned a more linear event to preclude more of a tornado risk.

too many questions at this moment, we’re better off waiting until tomorrow morning.

 

[KevinH]

Nadocast chiming in….. (1/2)

 

[KevinH]

Same forecast but “absolutely calibrated”… anyone know what that means though? This was in the comments of nadocasts tweet

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[KevinH]

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

RFFS gonna RFFS.