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Southeast Svr Wx threat April 8-11, 2024

Wake lows aren't fun; pretty clear there is some strong winds on radar... probably will cause some power outages.
 
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treypops said:
I joke with my son all the time who's a meteorology major - whenever we're under the gun for severe weather: "There's a hundred and twenty percent chance of violent, EF-50 Tornados with embedded running chainsaws within a 50 foot radius of any location in our hatched area."
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Tornadoes with chainsaws? I'm more concerned about the inevitable Lava Sharknadoes with laser sharks and nuclear bombs, but I don't know. I'm no expert.
 
The atmosphere in the Deep South has been thoroughly worked over this evening, it's literally just a mass of rain right now.

However, the mesoanalysis is hinting at a possible recharging later tonight...have to keep an eye on it still! Small area of concern, though, basically in the existing ENH area.

Shown: surface based CAPE and the 22z HRRR UH streaks.

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Latest SPC update has removed the ENH risk and only kept a very small area near Tallahassee in SLGT. Looks like most of the threat has been washed out by the heavy rains stabilizing the atmosphere. Looks like the low-level lapse rates win again haha
 
wx_guy said:
Latest SPC update has removed the ENH risk and only kept a very small area near Tallahassee in SLGT. Looks like most of the threat has been washed out by the heavy rains stabilizing the atmosphere. Looks like the low-level lapse rates win again haha
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Definitely not getting any complaints from me! Glad that gnarly MCS was the worst we got today.
 
I hate to call any event a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, because even one tornado can change a person's life forever.

I also don't want to sound like I'm ripping on the SPC.

However, it feels like none of the events have really lived up to the hype (for lack of a better word). The SPC seems very bullish on issuing ENH and MDT risks this year compared to what actually plays out. Is this merely a coincidence?
 
TornadoFan17 said:
I hate to call any event a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, because even one tornado can change a person's life forever.

I also don't want to sound like I'm ripping on the SPC.

However, it feels like none of the events have really lived up to the hype (for lack of a better word). The SPC seems very bullish on issuing ENH and MDT risks this year compared to what actually plays out. Is this merely a coincidence?
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We saw with the maps posted earlier how a wide variety of scenarios could have verified the outlook in a strictly probabilistic sense.

However, semantically I think the tornado-driven moderate risk (15 hatch), being just one tier below High risk, carries connotations in my and many other's minds of classically discrete, long-lived supercells producing families of upper-echelon intense tornadoes, just with lesser coverage and/or lower confidence than needed for a High.

This may not be the way SPC intends to use the probabilities anymore, but those of us who have been around long enough to remember when it was (when the tornado probability gradations were 2-5-15[MDT]-25[HIGH]) still think of it as such. This is why I was a bit dubious on the 15 hatch going back to yesterday. Now, I absolutely would have agreed with a strictly wind-driven MDT (45 hatch) with a 10 hatch for tornadoes.

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This event was well forecasted in the wind department, but the lapse rates killed the tornado threat.
As for the “events not living up to the hype”, that’s merely an artifact of the public not understanding what SV risk are.
It’s the public that over hyped these events, the SPC hasn’t been bullish with their convective outlooks.
They look at the modeled environment and understand it far better than any of us do, and they deemed it volatile enough for a moderate risk. Again, like with the last event, low lapse rates negated a more substantial threat.
I can’t say the same for next Monday though, as the LR finally look like they will be a positive factor this time around, that can change though.
 
TornadoFan17 said:
I hate to call any event a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, because even one tornado can change a person's life forever.

I also don't want to sound like I'm ripping on the SPC.

However, it feels like none of the events have really lived up to the hype (for lack of a better word). The SPC seems very bullish on issuing ENH and MDT risks this year compared to what actually plays out. Is this merely a coincidence?
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Imo, it's more of a coincidence. If the conditions are present (even if they are conditional) then I think it's necessary to make people aware of the risk. Like others have said all it takes is one strong tornado which can be present even in MCS events like this.

And for every few events like today and last week, you have moderate risks that overperform such as Easter 2020, 12/10/21, and imo 12/15/21 (33 EF2s!) just to name a few recent examples. I think the probabilities even out over the long run given a moderate represents a 15% hatched chance of tornadoes.
 
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