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Solar weather watches

SWPC, a few minutes ago:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK09
Serial Number: 8
Issue Time: 2024 May 11 1139 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 9o
Threshold Reached: 2024 May 11 1128 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G5 - Extreme

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 40 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems may occur; some power grid systems may experience component failures or protective device trips resulting in blackouts or disruption of service. Pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience anomalies to include: extensive surface charging, unexpected orientation and attitude changes, uplink/downlink errors, and satellite orbit degradation.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) may be degraded or unavailable for days.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Florida to southern Texas and southern California.
Click to expand...
 
I'm glad old Sol rotates and the trouble-making sunspot is now over near the limb. Still, apparently, enough will reach us to mess up high-frequency radio; also, see Dr. French's thread. =8^O

[NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center on X: "REGION 3664 NOT DONE YET! PRODUCES X8.8 FLARE...LARGEST OF THE SOLAR CYCLE! https://t.co/NJZUdRCrt1" /

[Dr. Ryan French on X: "How large was today’s #SolarFlare in reality? With much of the flare obscured, GOES measured an X8.8-class. However, the Solar Orbiter STIX instrument, which observed the flare unobstructed, estimates a peak between X4-X18 with confidence. https://t.co/ogxYkvN7or" /

Think it takes about three weeks for that group to return to the shooting gallery and, hopefully, by then we will have moved a little more out of range.
 
[Dr. Ryan French on X: "The movie of today’s large #SolarFlare really empathises how concentrated/localised the emission is (at least in EUV wavelengths). You can also see the flashing effects of the alternating SDO-AIA fixed/varying-exposure rate! https://t.co/YJ8aCcLzPW" /

Folks, it's time for us to start fighting back. If we've got the tools, let's use 'em. ;)

 
Sigh.

[Dr. Ryan French on X: "Before I even had a chance to tweet about the first X-class #SolarFlare from earlier today, there’s already ANOTHER X-class event in progress. But to make it exciting, this new flare is from a yet-unnamed region rotating over the eastern edge. A new player has entered the game! https://t.co/8fQeiUeJXl" /
 
In case anyone missed it, here is a good article on the storm, its effects, and how it measured up to biggies like the Carrington storm.

It's also always nice to hear when mitigation work has helped. :)
 
Honestly, all I can think is "Pew! PEW!," but this is really useful data visualization.



And AFAIK that sunspot group came around once -- no repeat big ones -- and is coming around again right now.
 
 
Good news, though less so for aurora fans:

 
Sol needs some antacids.

 
Don't know that it will be another "purple/pink Alps" night, but some nice aurora photos in both hemispheres have been coming in on X (and probably elsewhere) for at least 12 hours.

These info tweets were posted eight hours ago, for background:




And --

 
The SWPC's latest alert text:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 587
Issue Time: 2024 Aug 12 2302 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 12 2301 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.

Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.

Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.

Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.

Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Click to expand...
 
If the weather cooperates, we might see a show tonight in mid-latitudes, not as intense as in the spring but still nice.



She has lots more images in her feed. Background from Austrian Space Weather here:

 
Something to keep an eye on, though ? yet how the aurora will be.

 
 
Bad news first: This might hinder hurricane rescue and relief operations some, starting tomorrow.

Good news: Aurora possible over Alabama, weather permitting.

 
Big time aurora seem like a possibility this evening, potentially being visible across much of North America.
1728583883639.png
 
I don't know if this will be as intense as that one was earlier this year, but Dr Skov already has some beautiful images from Norway and Australia on her X feed: SWPC says G3+ and time will tell:

 
Clear sky in Iceland this time around; sun just set, and this cam had some gorgeous aurora a few nights ago. Wonder what tonight will bring there.
 


The Austrian Space Weather people on X see a decline in signal -- hope it doesn't decrease before everyone on this side of the Atlantic can get in on the fun!

PS: From other tweets by various people I learned that the X1.8 flare wasn't as strong as other ones recently but it went on and on and on -- some of that material headed our way.
 
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