Solar weather watches

[bjdeming]

Hope this is okay for a thread. Started it because I just saw this and it's not from a doofus:



Nothing else issued so far. May Sol not develop indigestion while looking our way.

There have been some other recent but past events, too. Discussion/news, anybody?

 

[bjdeming]

Per the replies, it's expected to be here probably by Sunday evening. Per NOAA, both Saturday and Sunday, 40% chance of R1-R2, 1% chance R3-R5, and 5% chance of S1 or greater.

Whew. Guess I can get up off the fainting couch now. (Reaches for sunblocker anyway.)

 

[bjdeming]

Also --



And --

 

[bjdeming]

I might get to see them, though city lights are a factor:

 

[bjdeming]

Something I found reassuring (think I'll still stay indoors, if not on the fainting couch):

 

[KevinH]

I was wondering if there was a space (no pun intended) for this.

 

[Equus]

Big shame it's mostly cloudy tonight, have not seen an aurora here for more than 20 years and it'd be awesome to go looking for a good vantage point to see that again

 

[bjdeming]

Some incredible images on Twitter, including from Arkansas and Missouri.

In Corvallis, I stayed inside but looked out the window; clouds and street lighting, only.

This is the farthest south US image that I've seen and it's amazing:

 

[JayF]

Great image from Illinois off the Aurora and a meteor going through.

 

[notsoencrypted]

Tulsa!



Also from Illinois; you can see the strobing in the video:

 

[bjdeming]

Here we go again, but probably not so strong.

 

[bjdeming]

There have been plenty of low-level watches and warnings since then, not updated here. Old Sol did sneak a little of one CME past the watchers recently, but with only slightly elevated impacts -- somewhat lower latitude aurora and a little radio issues are what I saw mentioned on Twitter.

Saw this Science article today and was interested (forecasting challenges):

...it’s becoming clear that the official prediction from the panel, convened by NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Space Environment Service (ISES), missed the mark. The Sun’s activity has already surpassed the forecast, reaching levels not seen in 20 years, and solar maximum may arrive within the next year, months ahead of its presumed schedule. “Obviously the panel underestimated it,” says Ilya Usoskin, a physicist at the University of Oulu....

 

[bjdeming]

NOAA Space Weather Scales | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

www.swpc.noaa.gov

 

[bjdeming]

Don't know what will be in daylight when this storm starts, but if you rely on constant radio availability and might be inconvenienced or worse by a minutes-long blackout, you might want to check tomorrow's space weather forecast today.

 

[bjdeming]

This:

 

[bjdeming]

Aaaaand this :



I've heard it was visible in Oregon, too, but I couldn't get out for a look (some street-light pollution here in town).

 

[bjdeming]

Uuuurgh, am I on Twitter or Talkweather.....=8<O

 

[bjdeming]

 

[bjdeming]

From Iceland, posted six hours ago, sped up 15x:



From Michigan, posted one hour ago:



Anyone else?

 

[bjdeming]

From NOAA today: