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Solar weather watches



"Professionally predicted" is the key phrase. Right now I'm following these sources plus NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.
 
For instance, here is Skov's latest:

 
From SWPC: " A severe geomagnetic storm includes the potential for aurora to be seen as far south as Alabama and Northern California."

But read the whole thing. Also --


 
Meanwhile, Jupiter says "Hold my beer."

 
g4-watch-may-10-2024.png
From SWPC today.
 
Half an hour ago:

 
And they keep coming, apparently (tweeted ten hours ago):

 
The scientists are excited.

[Dr Elizabeth⚡️MacDonald on X: "Continuing on the technical terms, ;) the main phase of this storm (according to the real-time Dst) is -231 nT. Nearly superstorm level (-250 nT) and not seen for *many* years I believe. https://t.co/UleK5ldSpA read more about red aurora here: https://t.co/6z6lLcCTK8 https://t.co/T6Qr1rcFFs" /
 
Wonder how our satellites and ISS are doing.

[Dr. Tamitha Skov on X: "Insane! #AuroraAustralis is visible as far north as Africa during this ongoing #solarstorm. This is truly a monumental event. Thanks for reporting!" /
 
Perspective:

[Austrian Space Weather Office, GeoSphere Austria on X: "There it is - 2024 May 10/11 is the strongest geomagnetic storm with -345 nT as measured by Dst since November 2004 at -374 nT. November 2003 would be - 422 nT. Behind this comes -589 nT in March 1989. https://t.co/cDQaFAhdvl" /
 
More perspective. I haven't seen much hysteria, fortunately, and what was in my Twitter feed had helpful community notes. Apparently it isn't the source region size that mstters but its energy release.

[Dr. Ryan French on X: "Whatever this weekend brings, it’s sure to be exciting! A G4 level could bring the northern lights to millions. But crucially: this event will be *significantly* weaker than the Carrington Event, and unlikely to exceed the 2003 Halloween solar storms." /
 
[EarthScope Consortium on X: "A 3D conductivity model of the U.S. generated from magnetotelluric array data can help to assess the regions where there may be a potential hazard to electrical infrastructure during the geomagnetic storm. https://t.co/X3WyBMXjGH" /
 
A few minutes ago:

[NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center on X: "Extreme (G5) geomagnetic conditions have been observed! https://t.co/qLsC8GbWus" /
 
Europe is lit up like a Christmas tree; the Alps are purple; orange lights over Namibia; just amazing.

From SWPC:

Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
Serial Number: 104
Issue Time: 2024 May 10 2348 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Extension to Serial Number: 103
Valid From: 2024 May 10 1715 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 May 11 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
 
A few minutes ago. Sigh.

[Austrian Space Weather Office, GeoSphere Austria on X: "There is another intensification coming up as Earth is in a magnetic flux rope of one of the #solarstorms, with the field going from north to east to south and Bz is again -45 nT. At this stage it looks like it might even beat November 2003, its absolutely relentless. https://t.co/aa5TXQ3atv" /
 
The fat lady, bless her, is nowhere near the microphone yet...

[Dr. Tamitha Skov on X: "Don't worry. This is just the first round of several. Likely there will be more tonight. In addition, we just had a filament lift off the Sun while in the Earth-strike zone. This means we now have 9 #solarstorms in this train that have either arrived or are still on their way!"
 
Beautiful sights all across the country and the world tonight. Can't see any myself due to light pollution where I live but in awe at all the wonderful pics rolling in.
 
I sacrificed some sleep to see it here in Northern Utah and it didn’t disappoint. I moved my Wyze security camera to point at the northern sky and it showed the lights better than I expected.

It is brighter on camera than in person, but it was easily visible to the naked eye.
 

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Gorgeous images! Here in Corvallis, around 4 a.m., despite light pollution, naked-eye observation shows what seems to be a white winding-sheet movement in the sky north of town that's usually dark at night.

And Saturday-night images from New Zealand show the aurora australis is still dancing.

Tweeted nine hours ago:

[Dr. Ryan French on X: "The second biggest #SolarFlare since 2017 (X5.9-class) currently happening on the Sun, whilst the strongest geomagnetic storm since 2003 continues on Earth. This is solar maximum, folks! Buckle up. #spaceweather https://t.co/MJk0JEjQUD" /
 
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