Winter WX Snow Threat on Tuesday (Jan 16, 2018)

[Bama Ravens]

Roads already going to hell in the Shoals....

Fred Gossage shared a picture on his Facebook this morning from North Mississippi where the grass barely had snow on it but the roads were already dangerous. Shows how little snow it is going to take for the roads to deteriorate today.

 

[Richardjacks]

I am confused. You said it's busting ..and that's the first sign of overperforming? I'm learning, y'all. Please forgive my ignorance.

the 12z nam has the current snow band dissipating and then redeveloping near BHM. Current trend is that the band doesn't dissipate...giving more snow causing the model to Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency and the snow to overperform the model

 

[Bama Ravens]

Haleyville, AL:

 

[Bama Ravens]

This lead band is intensifying

 

[Richardjacks]

This lead band is intensifying

this is exactly the opposite of what the nam has been showing

 

[Bama Ravens]

Even the back side of the snow mass is filling in back in west MS.

 

[Daryl]

From Mike Melton EMA Director of Colbert County:
All road and bridges in Colbert County should be considered IMPASSSABLE until further notice. Members of the general public are advised that when roads and bridges become IMPASSABLE all travel should be suspended or delayed. Only emergency vehicles should travel on county roads and bridges until further notice.

NWS Huntsville:
Based on latest radar and observations, think the models have underdone the strength of the front. Quite a strong temperature gradient from NW AL where it is snowing (mid-20s) to western TN behind the back edge of the snow (5-6 degrees). We are also seeing some localized banding which is likely due to some frontogenetic forcing. Was initially concerned looking back to our SW over central MS with radars showing snow breaking up and hinting at the idea models were showing yesterday with a possible hole in snowfall over northern AL. But that area has filled back in and think that even the latest model guidance is under-doing the precip a bit. Could see totals a little higher than forecast in the bands. If anyone has any snow totals please pass them along

 

[SouthernStorms]

trying to gauge when i need to leave work today.. I am in Chelsea and line in alabaster. I think noon should be ok, but memories of 2014... hmmm....

 

[Jenifer Jerri]

Having that same problem trying to figure out when to leave Anniston and head home to Munford. I remember that 2014 horror also


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[Bama Ravens]

 

[Lori]

trying to gauge when i need to leave work today.. I am in Chelsea and line in alabaster. I think noon should be ok, but memories of 2014... hmmm....

I assume you travel Hwy 11 to Alabaster? It will be one of the first roads to clog up!! I live off 11 and I remember seeing a RV slowly make its way by, it slide off the road right past Chelsea High School!!
I'd head out as soon as it starts! If not before!!


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[Lori]

My kids are never going back to school, are they?

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[Blountwolf]

Did anyone else's radar feeds go down? My weatherscope is showing no data from any NWS radar in the southeast at the moment.

 

[Bama Ravens]

I’ll admit, the radar doesn’t look as promising as it did earlier.

 

[StormStalker]

I'm still getting data. The snow has picked up some. Its a fine powdery snow. The roads are a mess. Frozen and snow covered but there are people still out. There's a good band back in MS. Hopefully it keeps feeding more snow up this way.

 

[Richardjacks]

radar back in west Miss appears to be filling in...I think this is the eastward push that will bring it into BHM

 

[The Colonel]

just hope for the over perform. SREF came in drier again for BHM with a mean of .03 QPF. If this was 15:1 we may sniff an inch at best...

 

[Bama Ravens]

just hope for the over perform. SREF came in drier again for BHM with a mean of .03 QPF. If this was 15:1 we may sniff an inch at best...

Probably time to stop looking at models.

 

[Kory]

Many of the models have shown that line diminishing once it’s into AL and then coming back together in some form below BHM. Ratios will be higher than 10:1 for sure...just have to wonder about the moisture overall.

How's that working for the northern 1/3rd of the state so far?

 

[NorthBamaWX]

Limestone County EMA: All roads in Limestone County have been deemed IMPASSABLE. This does not apply to streets in the City of Athens.