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Significant Tornado Events

What's the basis for Holly Springs being an EF5, again? Vehicle damage isn't a reliable indicator of tornadic intensity and neither is ground scouring.
At least one of the homes it swept away was well built and anchored. There were likely more, but we'll never know for sure, because MEG decided to half-@ss the survey.
 
2015 was actually a pretty impressive year. There were at least 3 tornadoes that without a doubt reached EF5 strength in my opinion:

- Rochelle, IL ( obvious )
- Holly Springs/Ashland, MS.
- Cisco, TX ( low end EF3… come on NWS Fort Worth, do better. )
For Rochelle:

It seems that the homes doesn't actually deserve EF4, 200 DI due to obvious structural flaws to the homes. I'm sure @Saltical Wx (sorry for the mention) knows about Rochelle 2015
 
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At least one of the homes it swept away was well built and anchored. There were likely more, but we'll never know for sure, because MEG decided to half-@ss the survey.
Also ripped out plumbing from the Holly Springs Motor Park, mangled vehicles beyond recognition, etc.

Also since it is Christmas, sneak peek at Tri State map :)
IMG_2093.jpeg
 
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For Rochelle:

It seems that the homes doesn't actually deserve EF4, 200 DI due to obvious structural flaws to the homes. I'm sure @Saltical Wx (sorry for the mention) knows about Rochelle 2015
At the very least it deserves EF5 on a contextual basis - the moved sidewalk is absolutely "incredible phenomena" and indicative of extreme surface winds. IIRC the homes themselves were also more well built than you'd think.
 
I’m honestly just not really sold on Holly Springs as a solid EF5 candidate. Unless I’m missing something, we simply don’t have enough information. Yes I know an anchored home was slabbed, but there has to be more info/details/contextual stuff available beyond that to confidently make a call. Also lack of information and gaps in the survey doesn’t equate to actual concrete evidence of specific damage points fully meeting the EF5 criteria. Unlike Vilonia, nobody has ever really been able to fully fill in those gaps, or post pics or detailed evidence of something truly extreme enough to really make a strong case. Just my opinion.

In addition, pavement scouring isn’t remotely an EF5 indicator. I posted a while back multiple examples of pavement scouring occurring within EF2 and low-end EF3 damage. It’s not an uncommon sight after a violent tornado, but that’s about as far as you can take it.
 
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For Rochelle:

It seems that the homes doesn't actually deserve EF4, 200 DI due to obvious structural flaws to the homes. I'm sure @Saltical Wx (sorry for the mention) knows about Rochelle 2015
I actually want to hear this out and take an objective look at it and maybe learn something. While Vilonia just isn’t up for debate, Rochelle isn’t quite the same level of absurdity, therefore there’s room for discussion.

What was the specific issue? Was it a real glaring undeniable structural weakness that clearly contributed to the failure mode of the homes, or was it some smaller scale issue with a structural component of debatable significance? The area in question is the Deer Creek Subdivision. When you have that kind of contextual evidence, and you do have proper anchor bolting, and you have modern poured concrete foundations, and you have removal of the floor platforms/subfloors, it means it would take a truly severe flaw, like the floors being barely attached to the foundations, to knock Rochelle off the EF5 candidate list. If it really is something like that though, I’m open to that possibility. I just need the details, and they’d have to be compelling.
 
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I’m honestly just not really sold on Holly Springs as a solid EF5 candidate. Unless I’m missing something, we simply don’t have enough information. Yes I know an anchored home was slabbed, but there has to be more info/details/contextual stuff available beyond that to confidently make a call. Also lack of information and gaps in the survey doesn’t equate to actual concrete evidence of specific damage points fully meeting the EF5 criteria. Unlike Vilonia, nobody has ever really been able to fully fill in those gaps, or post pics or detailed evidence of something truly extreme enough to really make a strong case. Just my opinion.

In addition, pavement scouring isn’t remotely an EF5 indicator. I posted a while back multiple examples of pavement scouring occurring within EF2 and low-end EF3 damage. It’s not an uncommon sight after a violent tornado, but that’s about as far as you can take it.
Something else that's unrelated is that for every single "YouTube documentary" on 4/27/2011 or even Garland Texas on 12/26/2015

Not one person has covered the Holly springs Mississippi supercell. The significance of that event occuring in December warrants it.
 
At the very least it deserves EF5 on a contextual basis - the moved sidewalk is absolutely "incredible phenomena" and indicative of extreme surface winds. IIRC the homes themselves were also more well built than you'd think.
Sidewalk scouring isn't a contextual indicator we have enough evidence for to definitively say whether it's an EF5-level feat or not (we've also seen it in objectively-EF4 tornadoes like Henryville). Plus, as with ground scouring, multiple variables likely play a part.
 
I’m honestly just not really sold on Holly Springs as a solid EF5 candidate. Unless I’m missing something, we simply don’t have enough information. Yes I know an anchored home was slabbed, but there has to be more info/details/contextual stuff available beyond that to confidently make a call. Also lack of information and gaps in the survey doesn’t equate to actual concrete evidence of specific damage points fully meeting the EF5 criteria. Unlike Vilonia, nobody has ever really been able to fully fill in those gaps, or post pics or detailed evidence of something truly extreme enough to really make a strong case. Just my opinion.
This but with New Wren. The missed homes are usually pointed as an indicator that the New Wren EF3 was of EF5 intensity (aside from the truck, which I don't think is as impressive as it's put out to be); yet we don't know the specific details of the homes besides that they were "well-built".
 
This but with New Wren. The missed homes are usually pointed as an indicator that the New Wren EF3 was of EF5 intensity (aside from the truck, which I don't think is as impressive as it's put out to be); yet we don't know the specific details of the homes besides that they were "well-built".
Not comparable. New Wren has specific details and photographs to back up the argument, while Holly Springs does not. The slabbed bolted homes, grass scouring, and other contextual support like the truck paints a clear picture. While I currently don’t have access to them, I have seen the photographic evidence to back up the claims in New Wren. Also you not being impressed by the truck isn’t an issue of the significance of that particular occurrence being debatable, it’s an issue of you failing to grasp its significance.

At the end of the day, well anchored homes slabbed + instances of remarkable supporting contextual evidence is all you need for EF5, barring certain case by case exceptions. If you can’t see that, you’re wrapped up in the mindset that is the root of the EF5 drought problem.
 
Sidewalk scouring isn't a contextual indicator we have enough evidence for to definitively say whether it's an EF5-level feat or not (we've also seen it in objectively-EF4 tornadoes like Henryville). Plus, as with ground scouring, multiple variables likely play a part.
1.) It wasn’t scoured, it was dislodged from where it was set into the ground and shifted laterally intact. Given the sidewalk’s flat shape, wide dimensions, weight, and lack of surface area for the wind to “grab onto”, this kind of thing is strong evidence of extreme ground level flow, arguably even more so than the shifting concrete pole Tim Marshall photographed and discussed in Parkersburg.

2.) Henryville scoured asphalt not concrete. Genuine scouring of poured concrete is extremely rare.

If you want to pick apart overhyped contextuals like asphalt scouring, trenching, or cars tossed a couple hundred yards, that’s valid, but you’re also being dismissive of contextual evidence that actually is genuinely significant. Keep in mind, this is coming from someone who sometimes gets accused of being too dismissive.
 
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Well, Idk what happened but I couldn’t log into my account this morning so i’m back on this old account lol. It’s AJS but on this account now.

Anyway, concrete scouring like @buckeye05 said is extremely rare and i’ve only seen it associated with the highest of high end events. Most notably with Hackleburg/Phil Campbell, Jarrell, and Loyal Valley.
 
1.) It wasn’t scoured, it was dislodged from where it was set into the ground and shifted laterally intact. Given the sidewalk’s flat shape, wide dimensions, weight, and lack of surface area for the wind to “grab onto”, this kind of thing is strong evidence of extreme ground level flow, arguably even more so than the shifting concrete pole Tim Marshall photographed and discussed in Parkersburg.

2.) Henryville scoured asphalt not concrete. Genuine scouring of poured concrete is extremely rare.

If you want to pick apart overhyped contextuals like asphalt scouring, trenching, or cars tossed a couple hundred yards, that’s valid, but you’re also being dismissive of contextual evidence that actually is genuinely significant. Keep in mind, this is coming from someone who sometimes gets accused of being too dismissive.
What about extreme examples like the 1928 greensburg F2, where trenches were scoured to a depth of 6 feet?
 
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I still just don’t get it. High-end EF4 sure, but I don’t see anything here that equates to clear cut EF5 damage.

Thats's fair. The well-built two story home (though I couldn't see any anchor bolts) and extreme contextuals are enough in my book, but it's not your typical candidate.

Actually, the more I think of it, the broken barrier at the raceway might be one of the most impressive contextuals I've ever seen. It's discounted as debris impacts, but think about it. It's literally designed to be impacted by cars moving over 100 mph and not break. It'd be like seeing shattered medians on the interstate. That's kinda crazy. Does anyone have more info about it?
 
What about extreme examples like the 1928 greensburg F2, where trenches were scoured to a depth of 6 feet?
I don’t know. I’d need photos and corroboration, especially given the prevalence of big time exaggeration in newspapers around that time period. Also generally, I’ve noticed a stronger correlation between extreme intensity and the type of scouring that results in a total removal of all surface vegetation across an even contour leaving a swath of bare soil, versus deep trench type scouring.
 
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I’m honestly just not really sold on Holly Springs as a solid EF5 candidate. Unless I’m missing something, we simply don’t have enough information. Yes I know an anchored home was slabbed, but there has to be more info/details/contextual stuff available beyond that to confidently make a call. Also lack of information and gaps in the survey doesn’t equate to actual concrete evidence of specific damage points fully meeting the EF5 criteria. Unlike Vilonia, nobody has ever really been able to fully fill in those gaps, or post pics or detailed evidence of something truly extreme enough to really make a strong case. Just my opinion.

In addition, pavement scouring isn’t remotely an EF5 indicator. I posted a while back multiple examples of pavement scouring occurring within EF2 and low-end EF3 damage. It’s not an uncommon sight after a violent tornado, but that’s about as far as you can take it.
I know I've been one of this forum's most adamant proponents of an EF5 rating for Holly Springs (and still am) but honestly, that's a fair stance. Still, imo it speaks more to the awful quality of the survey than the intensity of the tornado itself.

Even though MEG left us with a puzzle, I do think the granulation and other damage at the Motorsports Park, and vehicle mangling/ground scouring/anchored home in the Ashland area paint a pretty clear intensity picture IMO.

And here's the home in question... not a totally clean sweep, I'll admit. If this was where the tornado peaked in intensity, I'd honestly agree with EF4 tbh.
539285


There are definitely anchor bolts though, visible where the partial sill plates remain. Interestingly, beyond that are some holes along the perimeter of the slab; I think the bolts may have been torn out. Again, to be noted is that the tornado had already weakened slightly when it passed over this residence on Blackjack Rd on the far northeastern edge of Ashland.

(I also note the look of the hill in the background, but idk if it's true scouring or just typical patchy late-season grass, so I'll leave that open to interpretation).
 
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