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Significant Tornado Events

I’m sure we are all familiar with the infamous March 31/April 1st, 2023 tornado outbreak. What a day that was. Numerous significant tornadoes and 148 tornadoes in total. Quite an outbreak for the history books.

However, one thought i’ve always had lingering around in my mind after that outbreak was the fact that there were definitely tornadoes stronger than the ratings they were given. Including the tornado i’m about to show below:

The Bethel Springs/Purdy/Clifton, TN EF3 that happened shortly after 11 PM and continued into midnight was in my opinion one of the higher end tornadoes of the day and gets overlooked in my opinion:

IMG_2760.jpegIMG_2752.jpegIMG_2751.jpegIMG_2754.jpegIMG_2755.jpegIMG_2761.jpegIMG_2757.jpegIMG_2753.jpeg
I’m definitely of the opinion that based on these damage photos, this tornado was no doubt violent and certainly in low to mid range EF4 caliber when looking at the contextual evidence. What do you guys think!
 
AJS said:
I’m sure we are all familiar with the infamous March 31/April 1st, 2023 tornado outbreak. What a day that was. Numerous significant tornadoes and 148 tornadoes in total. Quite an outbreak for the history books.

However, one thought i’ve always had lingering around in my mind after that outbreak was the fact that there were definitely tornadoes stronger than the ratings they were given. Including the tornado i’m about to show below:

The Bethel Springs/Purdy/Clifton, TN EF3 that happened shortly after 11 PM and continued into midnight was in my opinion one of the higher end tornadoes of the day and gets overlooked in my opinion:

View attachment 49246View attachment 49247View attachment 49245View attachment 49248View attachment 49249View attachment 49250View attachment 49251View attachment 49252
I’m definitely of the opinion that based on these damage photos, this tornado was no doubt violent and certainly in low to mid range EF4 caliber when looking at the contextual evidence. What do you guys think!
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Holy crap!! Safe to say NWS Memphis is by far the worst WFO out of all of them when it comes to underrating and it's not even close.
 
Meso Storm Chasing said:
Hey everyone! I just joined. I have a deep interest in tornadoes. However, one of the deeper-interests is vehicle damage from them. I try to identify (if possible) vehicles that are otherwise considered "unrecognizable." Does anyone know what SUV this is? (Last image) This was inflicted by the Ashland, Mississippi EF-4 tornado on December 23, 2015. This took place along Cherry Brown Rd. The damage in general is supportive of EF-3. Trees delimbed (but not debarked), Vehicles rolled a bit, but otherwise not severely damaged. Then the wood-frame residence, with a brick facade, falling in sections. Then there's this outlier. The SUV. Clearly thrown with such violent force, the roof caved in, suspension buckled, all wheels removed. Unsurvivable. My first guess is maybe a Dodge Journey, but I really have no idea. Thanks!View attachment 48912View attachment 48913View attachment 48914
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I know I'm unbelievably late to this, but today is the tornado's anniversary so I guess it kinda worked out?

I've posted many times on this forum as to why I think the Holly Springs survey was preposterous - at the very least, unbelievably rushed and/or lazy.

I guess the "it was Christmas, they wanted to be at home with their families" excuse COULD have worked... except NWS MEG has a track record of doing exactly this when surveying their tornadoes, regardless of the time of year. The 4/27/2011 Wren tornado is another example. And McNairy Co. 3/31/2023 was more thorough, but still botched massively.

The home you posted photos of above is probably indicative of HE EF3. But here's the problem: it was the ONLY ONE in the area to be surveyed, even though there were at least two other frame homes and some mobile homes destroyed in that vicinity. Pavement was scoured off Lamar Rd, a grove of low lying shrubbery was shredded, and deep ground scouring was still visible on satellite three months after the event. That and the SUV don't seem indicative of EF3 in my opinion.

Just MEG doing MEG things.
 
TH2002 said:
I know I'm unbelievably late to this, but today is the tornado's anniversary so I guess it kinda worked out?

I've posted many times on this forum as to why I think the Holly Springs survey was preposterous - at the very least, unbelievably rushed and/or lazy.

I guess the "it was Christmas, they wanted to be at home with their families" excuse COULD have worked... except NWS MEG has a track record of doing exactly this when surveying their tornadoes, regardless of the time of year. The 4/27/2011 Wren tornado is another example. And McNairy Co. 3/31/2023 was more thorough, but still botched massively.

The home you posted photos of above is probably indicative of HE EF3. But here's the problem: it was the ONLY ONE in the area to be surveyed, even though there were at least two other frame homes and some mobile homes destroyed in that vicinity. Pavement was scoured off Lamar Rd, a grove of low lying shrubbery was shredded, and deep ground scouring was still visible on satellite three months after the event. That and the SUV don't seem indicative of EF3 in my opinion.

Just MEG doing MEG things.
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Ah yes, Holly Springs.

To put it in the if/then formula IMO: If New Wren is EF5, then Holly Springs is EF5. Quite possibly the strongest case for an EF5 rating of 2015, and that includes another blatant EF5 candidate in Rochelle.
 
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Lake Martin EF4 said:
Ah yes, Holly Springs.

To put it in the if/then formula IMO: If New Wren is EF5, then Holly Springs is EF5. Quite possibly the strongest case for an EF5 rating of 2015, and that includes another blatant EF5 candidate in Rochelle.
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2015 was actually a pretty impressive year. There were at least 3 tornadoes that without a doubt reached EF5 strength in my opinion:

- Rochelle, IL ( obvious )
- Holly Springs/Ashland, MS.
- Cisco, TX ( low end EF3… come on NWS Fort Worth, do better. )
 
TH2002 said:
I know I'm unbelievably late to this, but today is the tornado's anniversary so I guess it kinda worked out?

I've posted many times on this forum as to why I think the Holly Springs survey was preposterous - at the very least, unbelievably rushed and/or lazy.

I guess the "it was Christmas, they wanted to be at home with their families" excuse COULD have worked... except NWS MEG has a track record of doing exactly this when surveying their tornadoes, regardless of the time of year. The 4/27/2011 Wren tornado is another example. And McNairy Co. 3/31/2023 was more thorough, but still botched massively.

The home you posted photos of above is probably indicative of HE EF3. But here's the problem: it was the ONLY ONE in the area to be surveyed, even though there were at least two other frame homes and some mobile homes destroyed in that vicinity. Pavement was scoured off Lamar Rd, a grove of low lying shrubbery was shredded, and deep ground scouring was still visible on satellite three months after the event. That and the SUV don't seem indicative of EF3 in my opinion.

Just MEG doing MEG things.
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Speaking of March 31, 2023, if any tornado from that day reached EF5 intensity at some point, which tornado do yall think did?

@Lake Martin EF4 I know you normally have a list of tornadoes on certain dates that you consider to be an EF5 candidate. Any in particular from that day?
 
AJS said:
Speaking of March 31, 2023, if any tornado from that day reached EF5 intensity at some point, which tornado do yall think did?

@Lake Martin EF4 I know you normally have a list of tornadoes on certain dates that you consider to be an EF5 candidate. Any in particular from that day?
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None. Sullivan was indisputably an EF4, though, and the case can be made for a few other tornadoes in AR/TN as well.

If you want 2023 EF5s, you need to look earlier (3/24, Rolling Fork) and later (6/21, Matador). 3/31 was a very, very lucky event all things considered.
 
Lake Martin EF4 said:
None. Sullivan was indisputably an EF4, though, and the case can be made for a few other tornadoes in AR/TN as well.

If you want 2023 EF5s, you need to look earlier (3/24, Rolling Fork) and later (6/21, Matador). 3/31 was a very, very lucky event all things considered.
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Sullivan was without a doubt an EF4 caliber tornado. I do believe though, Keota IA definitely had potential. That beast had absolutely ludicrous motion and actually left behind some pretty gnarly contextual damage including a couple of cars very badly mangled and trees severely debarked to nothing but stubs.
 
Lake Martin EF4 said:
Ah yes, Holly Springs.

To put it in the if/then formula IMO: If New Wren is EF5, then Holly Springs is EF5. Quite possibly the strongest case for an EF5 rating of 2015, and that includes another blatant EF5 candidate in Rochelle.
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What's the basis for Holly Springs being an EF5, again? Vehicle damage isn't a reliable indicator of tornadic intensity and neither is ground scouring.
 
TH2002 said:
I know I'm unbelievably late to this, but today is the tornado's anniversary so I guess it kinda worked out?

I've posted many times on this forum as to why I think the Holly Springs survey was preposterous - at the very least, unbelievably rushed and/or lazy.

I guess the "it was Christmas, they wanted to be at home with their families" excuse COULD have worked... except NWS MEG has a track record of doing exactly this when surveying their tornadoes, regardless of the time of year. The 4/27/2011 Wren tornado is another example. And McNairy Co. 3/31/2023 was more thorough, but still botched massively.

The home you posted photos of above is probably indicative of HE EF3. But here's the problem: it was the ONLY ONE in the area to be surveyed, even though there were at least two other frame homes and some mobile homes destroyed in that vicinity. Pavement was scoured off Lamar Rd, a grove of low lying shrubbery was shredded, and deep ground scouring was still visible on satellite three months after the event. That and the SUV don't seem indicative of EF3 in my opinion.

Just MEG doing MEG things.
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I know I’m kind of late. Pavement scouring for me, if assessed to not be a poorly constructed road, is automatic Ef4+
 
AJS said:
I’m sure we are all familiar with the infamous March 31/April 1st, 2023 tornado outbreak. What a day that was. Numerous significant tornadoes and 148 tornadoes in total. Quite an outbreak for the history books.
Click to expand...

By chance, is your avatar a screenshot from Michael McClellan's video?
 
CheeselandSkies said:
The one by Devin Pitts?

www.kciiradio.com

Southeast Iowa Slammed By Tornadoes Friday; Damage Across Multiple Counties

Multi-vortex tornado near Keota and Wellman Friday, March 31st. Photo Courtesy of Great Lakes Weather and Climate Social Media and storm chaser Devin Pitts (@DevinWxChase on Twitter)Photo Update 6:45A Saturday, April 1st Photos of Damage from Elm
www.kciiradio.com www.kciiradio.com
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Yes! That’s the one. It’s by far my favorite image of a supercell of all time. Utterly beautiful.
 
AJS said:
Yes! That’s the one. It’s by far my favorite image of a supercell of all time. Utterly beautiful.
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I'm trying to figure out where he was in relation to me based on that yellow-sided pole barn and pair of grain bins, without success so far. Looks like it was taken just after the Keota tornado had begun dramatically expanding/intensifying north of IA-92, while the roping-out Martinsburg tornado was approaching that road. Probably shortly before my GoPro image:

 
CheeselandSkies said:
I'm trying to figure out where he was in relation to me based on that yellow-sided pole barn and pair of grain bins, without success so far. Looks like it was taken just after the Keota tornado had begun dramatically expanding/intensifying north of IA-92, while the roping-out Martinsburg tornado was approaching that road. Probably shortly before my GoPro image:

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That is one pretty meso!
 
Central Ohio Wx said:
What's the basis for Holly Springs being an EF5, again? Vehicle damage isn't a reliable indicator of tornadic intensity and neither is ground scouring.
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According to the compact object study vehicle damage is. This is probabilities of vehicles being thrown over 50 meters. The red line is the EF5 threshold. I added a pink line for the classic F5 threshold (260 mph) because it's also interesting

IMG_3710.jpeg
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Site is fixed! I'm not sure if it's just me, but it looks like your pics got broken somehow. Maybe you can edit your comment and re upload? That'd be appreciated because I never got them downloaded :(

The EF scale accounts for attached garages, so I don't think that should be a reason for going below the expected wind speed for slab swept clean.

View attachment 49242

Here's a further zoomed out shot of the house from Jordan Hall's drone video. As you can see there are several trees debarked and denuded in the immediate vicinity.

View attachment 49243

If you zoom out further you can see the EF1 house to the right and complete utter destruction on the left

View attachment 49244

The best explanation for the house on the right is that this tornado had one of the craziest damage gradients you will ever see. It was an absolute drillbit.



This just leaves the missing nuts and washers, which is definitely significant if true. My only question is --and I hope someone here can answer this-- if the bolts were missing nuts and washers then how did they get bent? Wouldn't the sill plate have just slid right off?
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I just now noticed this post and I have fixed my original post of the unrated home in Greenfield, readding all the photos, still is 175 mph in my books.
 
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