Significant Tornado Events

[Union]

Wow, I haven’t seen some if these. Very violent looking. Another overlooked area in Mayfield that received particularly impressive damage was the First Presbyterian Church. This was a true reinforced masonry building with very thick sturdy walls, and it was just completely obliterated. Extra long anchor bolts were pulled and bent, smaller bolts were snapped, and steel columns were violently ripped from their anchor plates.

People talk about Bremen, and Cambridge Shores, and the UK Grain Research Lab when it comes to Mayfield rating debates, and in each case, there’s not enough to push it solidly into the EF5 range criteria wise. But if there is one building along the path that I think deserves a deep, detailed post-analysis and review, it’s this one. As far as I know, it’s never been discussed by surveyors OR engineers in a detailed manor. I overall agree with the rating of the Mayfield tornado, but this church is the one lingering question mark in my opinion and I think it deserves a second look.

(Note: the one potential limiting factor I can see is that there does appear to be some corrosion issues, especially on the anchor plates.)
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I COULD be wrong about this, but I'm pretty sure the churches downtown were addressed by Tim Marshall in a paper about certain areas of Mayfield where he used updated EF scale DIs to implement (such as rating the water tower EF2/125mph and the candle factory EF3/160mph) and from what I remember at least one of the churches was rated EF4/170mph, but I cannot remember if it was the First Presbyterian, there were multiple masonry churches downtown.

You mention the UK Research Center in Princeton which I think is incredibly underrated in terms of damage, incredible tree damage, vehicle lofting and mangling, and the sweeping of almost every house that was actually in the core after it passed through the golf course subdivision in Princeton is often looked over.

 

[Aaron Rider]

It also badly mangled vehicles, scoured grass from the ground, and debarked low-lying shrubbery.

Yowza. Thanks for posting. That certainly may have been the most violent tornado between Loyal Valley (May 11, 1999) and Harper in 2004.

 

[buckeye05]

I COULD be wrong about this, but I'm pretty sure the churches downtown were addressed by Tim Marshall in a paper about certain areas of Mayfield where he used updated EF scale DIs to implement (such as rating the water tower EF2/125mph and the candle factory EF3/160mph) and from what I remember at least one of the churches was rated EF4/170mph, but I cannot remember if it was the First Presbyterian, there were multiple masonry churches downtown.

You mention the UK Research Center in Princeton which I think is incredibly underrated in terms of damage, incredible tree damage, vehicle lofting and mangling, and the sweeping of almost every house that was actually in the core after it passed through the golf course subdivision in Princeton is often looked over.

I’m pretty sure the church you’re referring to was the large dome-shaped one, Mayfield First Christian Church. The other one was the Methodist Church, which collapsed at high-end EF4 intensity according to the survey. But as far as I know, no detailed engineering analysis for the Presbyterian Church has ever been released, let alone a wind speed estimate, but I could be wrong myself.

Edit: Ah you are right. While he did survey the First Christian Church like I mentioned, Marshall rated the Presbyterian Church at a whopping 170 MPH. That seems quite low and no detailed explanation for the 170 MPH estimate is given in Marshall’s survey, but I digress, given the corroded, rusted, brittle looking anchor plates in the photos I posted, I can see why an engineer would hone in on that as a potential fatal flaw. Still, I think the actual wind speeds were likely higher. Those brick walls were THICK.

Now regarding the UK research building, I do agree that the wind speeds there were much higher than what the survey shows, especially given the contextual evidence you mentioned. The problem is that the construction crew put rebar in the CMU walls of that building, yet failed to attach it to the foundation, negating a continuous load. That is a really, REALLY bad flaw from an engineering perspective, because when dealing with CMU walls, it basically eliminates any meaningful reinforcement. For reference, wind engineering studies show that unreinforced CMU walls can fail in wind speeds as low as EF1! So yeah, the construction crew really screwed up bad there.

 

[TH2002]

Wow, I haven’t seen some if these. Very violent looking. Another overlooked area in Mayfield that received particularly impressive damage was the First Presbyterian Church. This was a true reinforced masonry building with very thick sturdy walls, and it was just completely obliterated. Extra long anchor bolts were pulled and bent, smaller bolts were snapped, and steel columns were violently ripped from their anchor plates.

People talk about Bremen, and Cambridge Shores, and the UK Grain Research Lab when it comes to Mayfield rating debates, and in each case, there’s not enough to push it solidly into the EF5 range criteria wise. But if there is one building along the path that I think deserves a deep, detailed post-analysis and review, it’s this one. As far as I know, it’s never been discussed by surveyors OR engineers in a detailed manor. I overall agree with the rating of the Mayfield tornado, but this church is the one lingering question mark in my opinion and I think it deserves a second look.

(Note: the one potential limiting factor I can see is that there does appear to be some corrosion issues, especially on the anchor plates.)
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To be completely honest, I think this DI would have been at least considered for an IF5 rating if it had been on the path of the Mikulčice tornado earlier that same year

 

[buckeye05]

To be completely honest, I think this DI would have been at least considered for an IF5 rating if it had been on the path of the Mikulčice tornado earlier that same year

I was thinking the exact same thing. Had this been in Europe, an IF5 rating may have been applied.

Yet upon checking Union’s claims, he’s right. Marshall slapped this one with the ol’ 170 MPH EF4. As I mentioned, the only thing I can think of rationale wise is the rusty, corroded bolts and anchor plates. While that may not seem like a big deal, metal corrosion is associated with some of the most infamous engineering disasters in US history, such as the Mianus River Bridge collapse. Corroded metal can be very, very brittle, to the point where it can chip or crumble from just being touched or pressed on.

 

[Union]

I’m pretty sure the church you’re referring to was the large dome-shaped one, Mayfield First Christian Church. The other one was the Methodist Church, which collapsed at high-end EF4 intensity according to the survey. But as far as I know, no detailed engineering analysis for the Presbyterian Church has ever been released, let alone a wind speed estimate, but I could be wrong myself.

Edit: Ah you are right. While he did survey the First Christian Church like I mentioned, Marshall rated the Presbyterian Church at a whopping 170 MPH. That seems quite low and no detailed explanation for the 170 MPH estimate is given in Marshall’s survey, but I digress, given the corroded, rusted, brittle looking anchor plates in the photos I posted, I can see why an engineer would hone in on that as a potential fatal flaw. Still, I think the actual wind speeds were likely higher. Those brick walls were THICK.

Now regarding the UK research building, I do agree that the wind speeds there were much higher than what the survey shows, especially given the contextual evidence you mentioned. The problem is that the construction crew put rebar in the CMU walls of that building, yet failed to attach it to the foundation, negating a continuous load. That is a really, REALLY bad flaw from an engineering perspective, because when dealing with CMU walls, it basically eliminates any meaningful reinforcement. For reference, wind engineering studies show that unreinforced CMU walls can fail in wind speeds as low as EF1! So yeah, the construction crew really screwed up bad there.

The facility itself was definitely a pretty big failure in terms of building quality and what was expected for a structure like that, but i don't think it was hit by the most violent part of the core, at least in every aerial image I've seen, there's a somewhat visible core that barely scoots past it to the left that ended up going through the parking lot and forest behind the facility, but not necessarily right over it, that's where the extreme damage I mention above was done.

Also, for what it's worth, no damage in this whole area was rated 170, the Agriculture Center was rated 165 but everything else peaked at like 160, always thought that was pretty wild.

 

[AJS]

The facility itself was definitely a pretty big failure in terms of building quality and what was expected for a structure like that, but i don't think it was hit by the most violent part of the core, at least in every aerial image I've seen, there's a somewhat visible core that barely scoots past it to the left that ended up going through the parking lot and forest behind the facility, but not necessarily right over it, that's where the extreme damage I mention above was done.

Also, for what it's worth, no damage in this whole area was rated 170, the Agriculture Center was rated 165 but everything else peaked at like 160, always thought that was pretty wild.

Jeez, I never realized the damage around this area was so violent. Some of those vehicles were really mangled and caked in mud.

Based on all of the areas the Mayfield tornado hit, I can confidently say these areas are where the tornado most likely reached EF5 strength.

SW Mayfield. ( Candle Factory Area )
UK Research Facility Area.
Bremen. ( The most obvious answer. Damage in this area had clear cut EF5 contextuals. )

 

[Western_KS_Wx]

With today being the 11th anniversary of the June 16th, 2014 Pilger, Nebraska event, here’s some photos of extreme damage from the first Pilger twin that impacted town.

Aerials showing a very pronounced streak of wind-rowing all the way through town. The core of the tornado at times was pretty narrow, but within that corridor was total devastation.




Ground photos of immense vehicle damage.



Extreme damage in residential areas of Pilger. Note the significant ground scouring in the second photo.



Total devastation around where the church on the eastern side of Pilger was swept away.


The extent and severity of the damage to structures and vegetation leads me to believe this tornado reached EF5 intensity in a narrow swath during its passage through Pilger. It is also very possible that 3, maybe even all 4 of the EF4 tornadoes that day reached EF5 strength.

 

[AJS]

With today being the 11th anniversary of the June 16th, 2014 Pilger, Nebraska event, here’s some photos of extreme damage from the first Pilger twin that impacted town.

Aerials showing a very pronounced streak of wind-rowing all the way through town. The core of the tornado at times was pretty narrow, but within that corridor was total devastation.
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Ground photos of immense vehicle damage.
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Extreme damage in residential areas of Pilger. Note the significant ground scouring in the second photo.
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Total devastation around where the church on the eastern side of Pilger was swept away.
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The extent and severity of the damage to structures and vegetation leads me to believe this tornado reached EF5 intensity in a narrow swath during its passage through Pilger. It is also very possible that 3, maybe even all 4 of the EF4 tornadoes that day reached EF5 strength.

Do you happen to have any images of Stanton and the damage it caused?? From what i’ve heard, that one may have been the most violent one of the family.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

The extent and severity of the damage to structures and vegetation leads me to believe this tornado reached EF5 intensity in a narrow swath during its passage through Pilger. It is also very possible that 3, maybe even all 4 of the EF4 tornadoes that day reached EF5 strength.

Yup. Then Coleridge the next day likely reached the intensity and maybe caused contextual damage to prove it....and then Alpena the day after that likely did cause contextual + structural EF5 damage.

Possibly up to 6 EF5 tornadoes across that whole 3 day stretch.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

The Candle Factory vehicle damage is some of the worst I've seen from a tornado after Moore 2013 but it's not really brought up when talking about Mayfield and the damage, and I think it's definitely an area of EF5 intensity

It's not even just a pick and choose area either, every single vehicle in the parking lot of the factory was totaled and a lot of them were messed up pretty bad bodily wise.

Man, I would just really like to see some evidence that sub 200 mph winds can do this type of damage to vehicles. It wouldn't even be that difficult to study. Just make a wind tunnel with some fans beneath the floor to test vertical winds instead of horizontal. I'd be interested to know what kind of vertical wind speed is required to get tires off the ground. Could test all sorts of different body types. We really need to know what winds are required to loft vehicles and carry them long distances, because they're the perfect control variable for rating tornadoes.

Also, I know it's a controversial take, but the bar for an EF5 rating really needs to be lowered. We KNOW tornadoes are being underrated and an adjustment is needed. What is a good compromise or area we can dial back some contextual requirements to make things reasonable again? Why is there seemingly no flexibility on this?

 

[buckeye05]

Yup. Then Coleridge the next day likely reached the intensity and maybe caused contextual damage to prove it....and then Alpena the day after that likely did cause contextual + structural EF5 damage.

Possibly up to 6 EF5 tornadoes across that whole 3 day stretch.

Alpena in no way produced EF5 structural damage. That house utilized different foundation types for different rooms, and there were entire exterior walls with no anchor bolts present.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Alpena in no way produced EF5 structural damage.

@TH2002 might disagree with you on that, unless he's changed his view:

Those Alpena damage shots, holy moly. I could honestly see an argument for EF5 as-is (though I DON'T think Alpena is an example of a horrifically botched survey like Vilonia) despite the construction flaws present at the highest-rated residence the tornado encountered. However, this is another tornado I feel an EF5 rating would have been necessary for (and the rating "horrifically botched") if the home's foundation had been poured concrete w/ proper anchor bolts along the entire perimeter.

Agreed though that I probably should've put a "possibly" before mentioning structural damage.

 

[buckeye05]

@TH2002 might disagree with you on that, unless he's changed his view:


Agreed though that I probably should've put a "possibly" before mentioning structural damage.

Not even possibly. Entire walls missing anchor bolts = automatic EF5 disqualification if we’re strictly talking NWS application of the scale in its current form. Solid anchoring simply HAS to be present around the entire foundation perimeter, not just some of it, for EF5 to even be considered by the NWS. So because of that, my statement about it not producing genuine EF5 structural damage just isn’t really up for debate, even if it had “the look”.

It’s basically the Mayfield conundrum. Was that tornado an EF5? Definitely. Did Mayfield produce structural damage that truly met the modern day EF5 criteria? No.

This is exactly why the scale in its current form isn’t cutting it in terms of accuracy. Construction quality doesn’t tell the whole story, but is being used as the primary determining factor. As a result, EF4 and EF5 tornadoes are occurring, but aren’t receiving ratings that accurately reflect their true intensities (I know everyone here already knows that and I’m preaching to the choir here).

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

It’s basically the Mayfield conundrum. Was that tornado an EF5? Definitely. Did Mayfield produce structural damage that truly met the modern day EF5 criteria? No.

Speaking of Mayfield, I actually think there's 2 DI locations for which EF5 can be argued to some extent:

1. The Presbyterian Church. This was (IIRC) a pretty decently sized structure with thick brick walls but was still wiped out. The rust on the anchoring may negate it, though.
2. The Bremen CMU house. Ethan Morarity was the one who changed my mind on this one, actually, which is ironic because many of his takes otherwise are, uhh.....yeah..... I was actually siding with EF4 at this location until I saw Ethan's argument.

TBF, my Mayfield EF5 stance is mainly based on contextual damage, not structural. So yea

 

[AJS]

Speaking of Mayfield, I actually think there's 2 DI locations for which EF5 can be argued to some extent:

1. The Presbyterian Church. This was (IIRC) a pretty decently sized structure with thick brick walls but was still wiped out. The rust on the anchoring may negate it, though.
2. The Bremen CMU house. Ethan Morarity was the one who changed my mind on this one, actually, which is ironic because many of his takes otherwise are, uhh.....yeah..... I was actually siding with EF4 at this location until I saw Ethan's argument.

TBF, my Mayfield EF5 stance is mainly based on contextual damage, not structural. So yea

Mayfield produced some of the most impressive contextual damage i’ve seen since Vilonia/Chapman. The damage in Bremen contextual wise was as classic as EF5 damage gets.

 

[AJS]

I’ve posted some of these images before, but they all paint an extremely clear picture that the tornado was well into the EF5 range in Bremen. The last image impresses the hell out of me as it utterly obliterated the CMU stem walls and tore the cinder blocks into pieces in Smithville fashion. I think a lot of people overlook how violent the tornado actually was in Bremen. All it took was one well built home and the drought would’ve been over.

 

[buckeye05]

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I’ve posted some of these images before, but they all paint an extremely clear picture that the tornado was well into the EF5 range in Bremen. The last image impresses the hell out of me as it utterly obliterated the CMU stem walls and tore the cinder blocks into pieces in Smithville fashion. I think a lot of people overlook how violent the tornado actually was in Bremen. All it took was one well built home and the drought would’ve been over.

Agreed. Literally a single poured concrete foundation away from an EF5 rating.

 

[NWTNWX]

A picture that I took of Mayfield tornado when it was near Reelfoot Lake in Tennessee.

 

[AJS]

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A picture that I took of Mayfield tornado when it was near Reelfoot Lake in Tennessee.

WOW! Dude, that is a money shot right there! By the way not to be too nit picky here, but just letting you know that this was actually a separate tornado! This was actually the Tri State EF4 that went from Monette AR - Samburg TN, occluded and then dropped the Mayfield tornado just north of Woodland Mills, TN. What is shown in the image though is most likely the origin of the meso handoff. Looks like a new area of rotation developing in that image!