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    Melissa

Significant Tornado Events

TH2002 said:
It looks like your map shows that the Enderlin EF5 completed a loop, and the (officially) separate EF2 was actually just a continuation of the same tornado? It's an interesting theory, but I'd like to see some accounts of chasers who were on the storm (did some specifically observe a failed occlusion of Enderlin rather than a new tornado forming, for example?)
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You are correct. My theory is that it latched onto a supercell embedded within the derecho and restrengthened. The derecho itself is what caused the circulation to abruptly turn to the southwest. At the very least the EF2’s path started around 1.69 miles west (the earliest “likely” damage indicator I was able to find). There’s also evidence to suggest it may have looped, which I’m still looking into.

My centerline is assuming the indicators I was able to locate are the exact center of the tornado, which is unlikely. I’ll piece things together once I locate more indicators; I’m watching Timmer speak tonight so I can’t at the moment.
 
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Central Ohio Wx said:
You are correct. My theory is that it latched onto a supercell embedded within the derecho and restrengthened. The derecho itself is what caused the circulation to abruptly turn to the southwest. At the very least the EF2’s path started around 1.69 miles west (the earliest “likely” damage indicator I was able to find). There’s also evidence to suggest it may have looped, which I’m still looking into.

My centerline is assuming the indicators I was able to locate are the exact center of the tornado, which is unlikely. I’ll piece things together once I locate more indicators; I’m watching Timmer speak tonight so I can’t at the moment.
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Oh, you're in Dayton! Enjoy! :)
 
buckeye05 said:
Here’s my issue: there was still some bending of bolts and sill plate removal in Vilonia, and we’re not even delving into other EF5 candidates along the path that are missing. In addition, you say “needs to have” a continuous load path evidenced by anchor bolts being bent, versus that being typically preferable though not a requirement. That’s a big distinction, and if there’s recent literature or a presentation explicitly stating that evidence of a continuous load path with bent bolts are explicitly a universal requirement for EF5, then I’ll happily concede. But while LaDue said that bent bolts were a “key distinction” for the rating in Moore in his latest presentation, he did not say that explicit evidence of a continuous load path via bent bolts is a requirement for EF5 in general. Again, he even presented a potential scenario for EF5 involving a floor diaphragm in which anchor bolts aren’t in play at all. If you’re referencing the 2013 survey itself, then you have to at least know that individual surveys aren’t treated like tornadic case law, even though many would like that to be the case. The definition of where the bar should be unfortunately varies and changes depending on the year and who you are talking to.

Essentially, if that standard is explicitly a requirement for EF5 at every WFO, there has to be some direct evidence and recent official documentation that this standard not only exists, but is current and universal with no exceptions.
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And as I suspected, nothing. Reading between the lines, I suspect that this whole thing stems from a rationale that basically consists of “This was the definition and standard used in Moore 2013, so therefore this is the definition for all EF5s in any circumstance”. This is inherently flawed because it’s just not true. In fact, the actual survey info clearly states that the definition used in the Moore survey, was defined and used for that specific tornado and survey, and it may not apply in other cases due to variability and differences in rating practices. When you say a house “needs to have” what you described for EF5, it implies that this rule is well-established and universal, when there’s no direct evidence to support that claim. What was actually said is quite to the contrary. Here’s the survey info itself:
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Again, individual surveys are not tornadic case law unfortunately. In addition, reading through the rest of the available survey info from Moore, it’s clear that the purpose of the definition used was to define EF5 house damage amid the chaos of an urban/suburban debris field. Essentially, you presented a definition used in the most recent EF5 prior to Enderlin as an across the board rule that is applied universally, regardless of setting or circumstance, while disregarding the variance of standards and rating practices in the process. In reality, while anchor bolt evidence of a continuous load path is certainly preferable for an EF5 rating, there is no official standardized rule regarding this, even though that’s the crux of the argument that was being used to “debunk” Vilonia. Just because you and the circle you interact with place the EF5 bar there, does not mean that’s where the bar is invariably, and it certainly isn’t a standardized rule.
 
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Found this from Joplin, and I honestly have to say it's some of the worst damage to a single family residence I have ever seen. At the intersection of Empire Ave and West 26th, a shotgun-style house was swept away so violently that most of the anchor bolts were snapped off, with the few remaining ones being bent. In addition, the entire windward-facing poured concrete foundation wall was blown inward and broken into chunks. Interestingly, a car was deposited somewhat neatly into the crawlspace of the home.
joplin-ef5-damage-debarked-trees.png




Another anchored home destroyed, but it's post-cleanup so I don't know if it was swept away by the tornado or not:


And another:
 
ColdFront said:
This will be my final comment on the matter because I want to turn the temperature down.

This site absolutely does not have a “everything is an EF5” mentality. I’d argue the opposite. Many of our posters here lean conservative in their damage assessments. Yes, we have a few users who say every slab and debarked tree is an EF5 candidate. They are the exception, not the rule, and they get called out on it all the time.

Re: Saltical. A lot of us had never even heard of this person. Our first introduction was a few posters here saying his calculations showed Robinson was stronger than Smithville. Then proceeded to dig their heels in and not show any proof. If you all have issues with how that was represented or framed, take it up with the users who stated that to begin with.

@Central Ohio Wx if you don’t like the site or the way things are discussed, no one is forcing you to stay here. I don’t think this site has a groupthink issue. I’m just saying, if you already have a negative opinion of the site, you’re going to bring a negative/dismissive attitude to any discussion on here by default. Even if you don’t mean to bicker, that can still show up in replies. Painting with a broad brush like you have over the past few days certainly isn’t going to endear yourself to the user base on here.

Edit: I also want to apologize to @NickKrasz_Wx. My comment about him was entirely unwarranted and had zero to do with what was being discussed at hand. I got a little hot under the collar, and used something I disagreed with from a few months ago to throw shade at him.
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No worries, and thank you. I appreciate the apology, I'm glad we were able to work things out.
 
NickKrasz_Wx said:
No worries, and thank you. I appreciate the apology, I'm glad we were able to work things out.
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I guess I can say that me, ColdFront and a few other users are in a sort of 'clique'. I'd consider us to be the "Hotheads of Talkweather" lol

I had to learn it myself, but respect on this site is earned over time. I certainly wasn't accepted overnight... and that goes to show just how close-knit this site really is.

But joining this site has ultimately proved to be one of the best things I've ever done, and I can't imagine myself being a member of any other weather forum at this point.

BTW, I checked out your analysis of 2/6/2008 and I have to say you did a good job. Amos, KY was probably an EF4.
 
Anyways, I installed QGIS yesterday and experimented with it a bit. Using data from my personal damage survey, I created a Ted Fujita-style map of the February 6, 2008 Amos, Kentucky EF3 tornado. I overlaid my survey data in QGIS and designed the final graphic and legend in a photo editing site. In my analysis, I rated the tornado EF4 (180 mph) based on the complete destruction of a well-built home along Tracy Lane.Amos2.png
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TH2002 said:
I guess I can say that me, ColdFront and a few other users are in a sort of 'clique'. I'd consider us to be the "Hotheads of Talkweather" lol

I had to learn it myself, but respect on this site is earned over time. I certainly wasn't accepted overnight... and that goes to show just how close-knit this site really is.

But joining this site has ultimately proved to be one of the best things I've ever done, and I can't imagine myself being a member of any other weather forum at this point.

BTW, I checked out your analysis of 2/6/2008 and I have to say you did a good job. Amos, KY was probably an EF4.
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Funny you mention that, I just made a post about that here a minute ago, lol.
 
NickKrasz_Wx said:
Anyways, I installed QGIS yesterday and experimented with it a bit. Using data from my personal damage survey, I created a Ted Fujita-style map of the February 6, 2008 Amos, Kentucky EF3 tornado. I overlaid my survey data in QGIS and designed the final graphic and legend in a photo editing site. In my analysis, I rated the tornado EF4 (180 mph) based on the complete destruction of a well-built home along Tracy Lane.View attachment 48358
View attachment 48356View attachment 48357
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This is brilliant, man! 2/5/2008 going into the 6th was the most impressive February outbreak ever documented. The extent and longevity of supercells that evening/night amazes me. It didn't stop either into the morning, where apparently violent tornadoes took place in 300 MLCAPE in Alabama!
 
If anyone wants to know first hand about the Smithville tornado, I'd be glad to share.
 
NickKrasz_Wx said:
Anyways, I installed QGIS yesterday and experimented with it a bit. Using data from my personal damage survey, I created a Ted Fujita-style map of the February 6, 2008 Amos, Kentucky EF3 tornado. I overlaid my survey data in QGIS and designed the final graphic and legend in a photo editing site. In my analysis, I rated the tornado EF4 (180 mph) based on the complete destruction of a well-built home along Tracy Lane.View attachment 48358
View attachment 48356View attachment 48357
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Good work on this. Would bring the total violent tornados from that outbreak to 6. That’s an impressive total for a spring outbreak, but to have that kind of outbreak in February is insane.

I’ll need to go back and watch the radar loop from that day. This storm has always kind of flown under the radar for me since it happened very late into the event.
 
JPWX said:
If anyone wants to know first hand about the Smithville tornado, I'd be glad to share.
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One thing I do want to ask. I’ve read in multiple places that residents of Smithville heard “booming” noises during the tornados approach. Likening the sound to a series of sonic booms or a large hammer hitting the earth.

Did you or anyone else you knew in Smithville at the time hear anything like that?
 
ColdFront said:
One thing I do want to ask. I’ve read in multiple places that residents of Smithville heard “booming” noises during the tornados approach. Likening the sound to a series of sonic booms or a large hammer hitting the earth.

Did you or anyone else you knew in Smithville at the time hear anything like that?
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I can confirm that I heard it as well. My dad and I were outside on our back deck because he thought he saw rotation passing over the house. I didn't see any legit sign of that. We had a large oak tree in our backyard which kept us from seeing the tornado approaching. I didn't need to see it to know what it was. It was the low rumble sound that told me all I needed. We quickly ran inside. Now, I know this may sound crazy and, after all these years, I have yet to figure out the answer to this. But it cooled off big time before the tornado hit. By cooled big time, I mean I got chills. Yeah it was overcast and the clouds were moving quickly. I also haven't came across anything that suggest the air temperature dropping off before a tornado hits.
 
ColdFront said:
I go back and forth on Reed, overall I do have a positive opinion of him. However, I really can’t take him serious when he calls certain funnels “stout dynamic pipes” lol.
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Some of his claims, such as the fact that Greenfield was objectively an EF5 and that the Manitoba F4 tornado on June 5, 2007 was stronger than Elie are questionable. The rest of his claims were generally fine; I’m glad he acknowledged Morton’s hollow core and a few other things regarding the EF scale.

And sorry if I’ve been a bit of a hothead here since yesterday. I don’t hate this forum (hell, I have almost 700 messages here), I just think there’s things we could collectively work on, such as being more welcome to people with viewpoints that aren’t generally accepted here.
 
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