Significant Tornado Events

[slenker]

I don't know if this has been asked, but are there any F-5 tornadoes pre-2007 that would be rated EF-5 today? Like I know there are a few like Niles, OH-Wheatland, PA and Bridge Creek-Moore, OK. But what would be some other examples?

I’m not familiar with which WFO would have rated Jarrell, but I find it exceedingly difficult to believe that that tornado wouldn’t get an exception from whoever was rating it. I believe the structures were not EF5 worthy in Double Creek but given the extraordinary contextuals it would be an absolute crime to not be given the EF5 rating. That would be the worst snuff ever, period.

I think..? I have heard from sources somewhere on this forum that Bridge Creek would actually have gotten a 200 mph EF4 rating if it occurred nowadays, which is obviously laughably stupid if it’s true. But I have also heard that Marshall uses it as a sort of “measuring stick” when applying the EF5 rating nowadays as well, which I also have gripes with because it was obviously an upper echelon F5, but whatever. It is certainly better than the former being true.

Andover 1991 and Brandenburg 1974 are slam dunks IMO. Guin 1974 I’m not so sure about, even though it would have obviously deserved the rating - I recall some people being iffy on the quality of construction for the homes it affected. Despite them being strangely rated F4, most of the tornadoes from the 1965 Palm Sunday outbreak would have likely achieved the rating. The two Michigan F5s in the 50s also would have likely achieved the rating as well, seeing as they were extraordinarily violent, I find it hard to believe they wouldn’t have hit anything well-constructed nowadays if they tracked along the same paths.

I don’t know anything about other historic F5s so I can’t comment on them. I find it hard to believe that Chandler, MN 1992 tornado would be given EF5 but also I don’t know anything about the construction of the homes it hit. Honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if only half or even less of the officially rated F5s would be given the EF5 rating today if they occurred.

EDIT: I can say with a very high degree of confidence that Plainfield 1990 would not be given an EF5 rating today. Birmingham 1998 would also probably not get it - heard some gripes with construction of swept homes with that one, but I could be wrong. I’d like to know more about it, haven’t seen much damage pictures from that one.

 

[Ivanthetornadoenthusiast]

New Tionesta 1985 photos

 

[TH2002]

@Equus, or anyone else who owns SigTor2022, I'm curious what Grazulis wrote about the 2000 Tuscaloosa tornado. Did he keep the official F4 rating or downgrade it? I'm aware of the existence of a paper that (unofficially) downgrades its rating to F2 - which is absurd, but I do have a hunch it would get rated EF3 these days.

 

[Equus]

Here's the entry, mentioned specifically as violent



Has a couple pages of pics of damage as well

Agreed that it does feel like a case of 155-165 EF3 today given the modern application of the scale for better or worse

 

[DanLarsen34]

As I was starting to read this thread, I happened to come across this article which is written by Tony Lyza and others. I’m sure this has been discussed here before.

It talks about how if we lowered the wind speed threshold for an EF-5 on the current scale by 10 MPH that we would end up with a number of EF-5 rated tornadoes since 2013 that is basically in line with the historical frequency of F-5 rated tornadoes. This would also make the damage required to achieve an EF-5 rating more consistent with how it was applied to F5 ratings in the past.

I think the most notable conclusion they make beyond that is that if the post 2013 Moore tornado damage requirements were applied to all EF-5 rated tornadoes prior to it that virtually none of the 2008-2011 EF-5s, outside of the 2011 Smithville tornado, would likely achieve the same rating today, especially since many were rated EF-5 based in part on contextual evidence outside of the current DIs.

Where Have the EF5s Gone? A Closer Look at the “Drought” of the Most Violent Tornadoes in the United States

Abstract As of January 2025, the United States has gone over 11 years without the occurrence of a tornado rated EF5 on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, constituting the longest “drought” in F5/EF5-rated tornadoes since the beginning of official records (1950). This article places the “drought” of...

journals.ametsoc.org

 

[ColdFront]

I wonder how long Michigan's grace period will last. I imagine that someday, either due to a pattern change or as a complete fluke event, there will be more violent tornadoes.

It really is intriguing on Michigan. It seems like there was an overall background pattern very favorable to tornados in that area during the mid-20th century. Then you had Palm Sunday 1965 which is about as violent of an outbreak in any area you will ever see. That very active stretch for Michigan tapered off around the 70s.

It does make one ponder that maybe that stretch for Michigan was just anomalous, but given our relative lack of detailed tornado records over 70 years, it’s hard to say.

 

[Equus]

Agreed that it does feel like a case of 155-165 EF3 today given the modern application of the scale for better or worse

Expanding upon this, here's the damage in Hillcrest Meadows that BMX specifically denotes as being rated F4, and thus presumably the most severe damage done; I assume this would get EF3 now while EF2 is very clearly absurd

 

[DanLarsen34]

Not completely modern since it was before the five-category system, but I think it would probably look similar to March 2, 2012. To be perfectly accurate, maybe the high risk area would be extended to encompass northern Alabama, and perhaps a 45% hatched tornado contour where the really dense concentration of violent tornadoes took place over the Ohio River region.

I think it would look similar to March 2, 2012 as well, except with the high risk brought down into MS and AL with one or two 45% contours for the areas with the highest confidence in a violent tornado threat, one in the northern mode and another in the southern mode.

 

[OHWX97]

Does anybody have any video (when it was in Jefferson county) of the April 27th 2011 tornado that crossed through Tuscaloosa into northern Jefferson county? I always see the footage of it in Tuscaloosa but not much in fultondale and surround areas.

I found this incredible clip just a little bit ago from fultondale.

This video was apparently taken at the Village Creek Water Reclamation Facility, likely around the time the tornado was impacting Pleasant Grove and McDonald Chapel. This may be the clearest shot of the tornado as it was in Jefferson County.


Here's another nightmarish video taken as the tornado's entering Pleasant Grove. Not as clear of a visual as the previous video, but the roar is very much audible and you can start to make out the right side of the tornado shortly before they run for shelter.

 

[DanLarsen34]

I have a question: what would y’all regard as the most violent looking tornado signature on radar that you’ve seen? For me personally, it was the 2021 Western Kentucky tornado as it was impacting Mayfield. Seeing a scatter spike coming off of a massive debris ball is something I don’t recall seeing before or since.

 

[AJS]

I don't know if this has been asked, but are there any F-5 tornadoes pre-2007 that would be rated EF-5 today? Like I know there are a few like Niles, OH-Wheatland, PA and Bridge Creek-Moore, OK. But what would be some other examples?

I am confident in saying that Andover, Bridge Creek/Moore 1999, Jarrell TX, Niles/Wheatland, and Brandenburg would still be rated EF5 today.

 

[AJS]

I have a question: what would y’all regard as the most violent looking tornado signature on radar that you’ve seen? For me personally, it was the 2021 Western Kentucky tornado as it was impacting Mayfield. Seeing a scatter spike coming off of a massive debris ball is something I don’t recall seeing before or since.

I would actually say the velocity signature on the Western Kentucky tornado when it was in Bremen. I have never seen such a tightly compact velocity signature like I did with the velocity signature in Bremen.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I have a question: what would y’all regard as the most violent looking tornado signature on radar that you’ve seen? For me personally, it was the 2021 Western Kentucky tornado as it was impacting Mayfield. Seeing a scatter spike coming off of a massive debris ball is something I don’t recall seeing before or since.

The most violent personally I witnessed while covering events was this one. Same day as rolling fork. I didn't witness or stay up for the Mayfield event but I wouldve probably ranked that one 1st.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I think it would look similar to March 2, 2012 as well, except with the high risk brought down into MS and AL with one or two 45% contours for the areas with the highest confidence in a violent tornado threat, one in the northern mode and another in the southern mode.

Veteran's Day 2002 affected a similar area. On the 01Z evening outlook, the high risk was expanded* and extended from southern Ohio through most of TN/KY to most of MS/AL, NW GA, western WV/VA/NC. If extended westward just a tad more, it could have been a plausible outlook for 4/3/74.

*It should be noted that at the time, a 45% hatched area for wind triggered a high risk, and that's what most of this was for. The 25% hatched tornado area extended from southeastern Kentucky across the eastern half of TN, NW GA, northern 2/3 of AL and east-central MS.

 

[AJS]

The most violent personally I witnessed while covering events was this one. Same day as rolling fork. I didn't witness or stay up for the Mayfield event but I wouldve probably ranked that one 1st.

The amount of anxiety I felt watching that signature head straight for Smithville.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The amount of anxiety I felt watching that signature head straight for Smithville.

I think it was the same cell that hit rolling fork that went up towards that area and produced that velocity couplet if I'm not mistaken. It was funny because that event most people went to bed thinking it was a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency and then shortly after rolling fork happened. That supercell was very impressive all the way across the state.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The most violent personally I witnessed while covering events was this one. Same day as rolling fork. I didn't witness or stay up for the Mayfield event but I wouldve probably ranked that one 1st.

I'll add this to that post, but the closest and strongest velocity couplet to me personally was the January 2021 EF3 and here is its couplet. I imagine the April 27th 2011 would top that it passed by a similar path, but I can't find a velocity couplet screengrab of it. I'll need to scrounge around for that.

 

[DanLarsen34]

I'll add this to that post, but the closest and strongest velocity couplet to me personally was the January 2021 EF3 and here is its couplet. I imagine the April 27th 2011 would top that it passed by a similar path, but I can't find a velocity couplet screengrab of it. I'll need to scrounge around for that.

Speaking of 2021, the Brent-Centreville long tracker during the March 25 event produced one of the higher-end Vrot/CC drop combos ever recorded. That tornado almost certainly would have produced incredibly violent damage if it had affected more structures at peak intensity.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Speaking of 2021, the Brent-Centreville long tracker during the March 25 event produced one of the higher-end Vrot/CC drop combos ever recorded. That tornado almost certainly would have produced incredibly violent damage if it had affected more structures at peak intensity.

I forgot about that one! I personally witnessed the tree damage with that one, where it peaked. it was very impressive.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Speaking of 2021, the Brent-Centreville long tracker during the March 25 event produced one of the higher-end Vrot/CC drop combos ever recorded. That tornado almost certainly would have produced incredibly violent damage if it had affected more structures at peak intensity.

Tracking that in real time, I was certain both communities were about to be devastated in Hackleburg/Smithville-like fashion.